Teasing across Zero, other teaser myths, and High Percentage Teases

First, I encourage you to read my predecessor article on teasers:

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/truth-about-teasers-must-read-for-those.html

I decided to do a closer look at each and every pointspread to see when teasing is "typically" of value and when it is not. If you understand that you must hit 52.37% of your plays at -110 juice, you should also understand that if you want to win playing 2 team, 6 point teasers, each leg should have better than 73.1% chance of hitting. On a 3 team, 10 point teaser, each leg should have better than 81.1% chance of winning. And on a 4 team, 13 point teaser, each leg should have better than 85.5% chance of winning.

So those are what we are looking for when we target teasers. Of course, selecting games in a teaser is the same as selecting them in straight wagers. You have to cap the game and see when a team has good value. The hard part about teasers is the fact that if you misread one game, or get "unlucky" in 1 game, the whole teaser is lost. Whereas on a straight play, you only lose 1 play. Therefore, treat a "whole teaser" like a single play. Don't wager more than you normally would because you think "this has to hit". And don't let 1 teaser loss ruin your weekend, even if it is because you lost 1 game out of 4 in a 4 team teaser. You should have a couple other straight plays to get you where you need to be, and remember: everyone has a down weekend now and then. Lastly, know that teasers are jackpots for sportsbooks, because many "average joes" play them and lose. So if you can actually win consistently on teasers, consider yourself in lucky company.

Now, if that didn't dissuade you from wanting to play teasers, here we go. These numbers are drawn from a database dating back to 2000. (I could go farther back, but I wanted to look at the most recent 6 seasons.)

Teasing the Favorite



The Myth of Teasing across Zero

That's the first thing that jumps out at us when we look at this. The plays highlighted in the yellow color are those where the teased line has crossed zero. The plays in red are those that are above our target percentages. Remember, no teaser has a 52.4% target, 6 point, 10 point and 13 point teasers have their own targets. Therefore, I have a column in each category which shows the % over the target. If it's positive, that play is a solid one that, when paired w/ other positive plays, could help produce a winning teaser.

If negative, you're looking at a poor tease possibility. For instance, look at teasing from -11.5 or -12 down to -5.5 or -6. That teaser won only 47% of the time, which is 26% less than you need to actually earn money as a leg of a 6 point teaser.

The best 6 point teaser is teasing RIGHT ACROSS ZERO with a -3.5 or -4 point favorite and making that team a +2 or +2.5 point dog. It's hit 10% more than taking a -2.5 or -3 point favorite and making them a +3 or +3.5 point dog. Typically, you would think "why would I want to tease to +2.5? Wouldn't I want to make sure it was at +3? And you would think so, but based on historical lines, you would be wrong.

Also, look at teasing teams that are -3.5 or -4 in a 6 point, 10 point, or 13 point teaser. Either way, they are one of the best teams to put into any teaser.

Teasing the Underdog



As you can see and as you should know, you don't cross zero teasing a dog. But, as described in the prior article (linked at the top) teasing dogs is far less profitable than teasing favs. Look at the overall odds of hitting straight wagers w/ dogs. There's only 3 out of 13 that hit less than 50%. And the majority are hitting over that 52.4% mark.

Teasing them, on the other hand, yields far less "red" selections above our target levels.

I'll let you take what ever else you want to from this one.

Summary of Top Teasers

The following are summary tables which are quick references from the above tables, highlighting top teaser candidates.

Top 6 Point Candidates



Top 10 Point Candidates



Top 13 Point Candidates



Summary Points

I hope this gives you a good overview as to which spreads are more likely to produce winning plays. However, this does not mean these hit 100%. Even the best are hitting at a rate where you need to also employ some solid capping skills and as always, have a bit of luck on your side. The goal, however, is to equip you with all of these tools, so that you can combine your capping w/ solid ATS trends by pointspread. Hopefully the combination will give you added advantage, and in some cases, steer you away from a potential negative play. More could be done, such as looking at home field vs road, or adding total information to the queries. But this is a good middle ground and hopefully you will find some useful information that leads to winning plays. Good luck.