The truth about Teasers. A must read for those who play them or who refuse to do so.

The next in my background articles about sports betting, I’m tackling the topic of teasers. I have seen many this week discuss going the route of teasers. Teasing is a way for a player to take the fav but give fewer points (or eventually receive them) and/or to take the dog and get more points. The catch is, instead having to win only 1 game in a regular ATS bet, you have to win more:

2 games in a standard 6 point teaser
3 games in a 10 point teaser
4 games in a 13 point “super” teaser

I’ve analyzed teasers from 2000 onwards. That gives us 7 full seasons of data. I looked at teasing from two vantage points: The first is teasing the Underdog, the second is teasing the Favorite.

The point of this article is to get actual information on historical trends to help predict future results. The main point is to show you which key numbers are the most key to cross in a teaser, and which teasers win most often and which do not.

The other thing you should know is that I have calculated my %s of winning a teaser based on picking 2 teams from that same range in the line. For instance, when calculating odds of winning a teaser for underdogs of +0.5 to +3 in a 6 point teaser, I found out the odds of an underdog who was +0.5 to +3 getting 6 additional points, and how they would have done ATS. In this case, the odds were that you would hit 73% of the games in that situation. But those are not the odds to win the teaser, as you have to hit 2 games to win the teaser.

So for a 2 game teaser, you multiply the odds together. For purposes of my comparative analysis, I multiplied 73% x 73%. Which gives you 54%. So if you teased 2 teams together in a 6 point teaser, and both were between +0.5 and +3, you would have a 54% chance of winning.

What I didn’t calculate was the chance of winning a teaser if you teased 2 teams by 6 points, but the first was between +0.5 and +3, and the second was between +6.5 and +10. I calculated the individual chances, but not the combination of the two. I will post a table which will allow you to do the math yourself, all that is required is to multiply the %s together.

First, a little background on needed % of wins to make money. I’ve taken the following paragraph from a respected site:

It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice and simply break even. Reduced juice betting drastically affects the win % by bringing this number down: -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.

So as you can see, you have flexibility when placing standard bets. You can place the bet when the juice is to your liking. Pinny will keep the line still but shift the juice from + juice to – juice, all in the matter of hours. You can also buy points to get yourself to certain numbers you want. Of course, it gets expensive to buy to key numbers, like 3 or 7, but to get to other numbers, it is not as expensive.

The bottom line, when placing a typical spread bet, you have flexibility. However, when placing a teaser, that flexibility goes out the window. No buying points, no selecting games based on juice. Teasers at sportsbooks will have standard juice, no matter which teams you select. 2-team, 6-point teasers will have a certain amount of juice, which will most likely be different from 3-team 10 point teasers and different from 4-team 13 point teasers.

There are many articles out there about how to tease published by different sites, and I’m not here to talk about generalities. There are many gamblers out there who say “Teasers are the Devil”, and some who like teasing. I’m not here to convince you one way or another. What I am trying to do is show you, based on historical fact, which teasing situations are most likely to win and which are most likely to lose.

With that said, on to teasing underdogs.

Teasing the Underdog

As you know from my prior posts, betting on underdogs, on average, have a better chance of winning. In fact, since 2000, Underdogs have gone 51% ATS.

Here are the results of my analysis on underdogs, first just the numbers, and then graphically. The numbers are in red if the likelihood of hitting the teaser is HIGHER than that of a single ATS bet without teasing. The cell is shaded a light yellow if the % is higher than 52.37%, and is therefore profitable at standard juice:

As you can see, teasing underdogs is typically not the way to go.

• There was only one occurrence of the % being higher than 52.37% on a underdog teaser, that being teasing dogs 6 points that are less than or equal to +3.


• Most all the other games are well below the winning % of picking a single game ATS in that same point spread range.


• As the point spreads get higher, the chances of you winning on a underdog teaser get lower.
  

Teasing the Favorite

Here are the results for teasing the favorite. As you can see, much better than underdogs, and in most cases, better than picking the favorite in a single game ATS.

• With favs of a FG or less, every tease presented better odds than picking the individual game ATS.


• The highest odds (aside from very high point spreads above 14) came when teasing the favorite by 13 points in a game where the spread is more than a FG but less than a TD.


• There are certain times when teasing a favorite is beneficial, and certain times when teasing a favorite should be avoided. These are shown in the table and graph above.

Situational Teasing

The other thing this analysis did not take in to account is the element of situational teasing. Such as when the total is high or low, or the public perception of certain teams based on their record. For instance:

As you can see, in the case where the line was very high and the total was not extremely high(<45)favs were more likely to cover in all situations, especially if teasing by 10 or 13 points.

In a similar situation, with a high line, but a higher total (>45), the underdog was more likely to cover in a 6 or 13 point teaser. Notice how the 10 point teaser did not help at all in this case.

There are likely many other situational spots where I could look up teaser information, and find high odds of winning a particular teaser based on line and tease type. However, I've already taken too much time as it is, and that will have to be done another time.

Table to perform your own Odds Calculations:

Lastly, I’ll include a table which you can use to calculate your own odds. Essentially, if you want to do a calculate your odds of winning, you take the percentage from the appropriate box for the starting line you want to use, and multiply it times the percentage for the next team in the teaser. If it’s a 2 team 6 point teaser, you multiply Team 1’s % x Team 2’s %. In a 4 team 13 point teaser, you multiply all 4 teams’s % to come up w/ your odds of winning.

From this table, you should see:

• If you want to take a 6 point teaser on a favorite, best chances of winning are if the spread is a FG or less, or if the spread is higher than a TD. Whereas the odds of success on a 13 point teaser on a favorite does not have as large a difference between original point spreads.


• When teasing an underdog, your chances are highest when you tease a small underdog. Taking large underdogs in teasers is not as wise.
  

Overall summary points:

• While many say teasers are sucker bets, that is not always the case.


• The time to take teasers are if you want to tease favorites, particularly in a 10 or 13 point teaser.


• However, in most all other cases (with a few exceptions), you have better odds of just getting individual games correct than you do of hitting a teaser.


• The exceptions are certain opening lines have better odds of hitting than others. The tables above shows these situations, and show when certain teasers (6, 10 or 13 point) are more wise to play due to their odds of hitting.


• Remember, just because a teaser has high odds historically has nothing to do with its ability to win on a certain future date. Smart and accurate capping should occur, and when certain games are determined to be high percentage plays, and the likelihood of hitting that teaser is high based on the historical data presented above, teasers are perfectly acceptable.


• In general, more people lose teasers than those who win them. And more people lose playing teasers than when they make standard ATS plays. Essentially, teasers typically produce more money for outlets than regular plays, so remember that when jumping at a “easy teaser”
  

I hope this information, while difficult to explain (and I’m sure follow along), was made easier to comprehend through the use of the graphs and charts. Good luck capping this week and the rest of this season!