Tremendous Week 12 Results

Tremendous Week 12 for Sharp Football Analysis:

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) and totals went 5-1 (83%) including the two Overs plays that went 2-0 (100%).

This brings the Overs system (my strongest and most accurate computer system) to a record of 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!

Week 12 Results:
2-1 (67%) Personal Play brings the mark to 28-12-2 (70%) YTD
2-0 (100%) Overs System plays Sweep brings the mark to 9-3 (75%) YTD
3-1 (75%) Unders System plays brings the mark to 19-11-2 (63%) YTD
2-3 (40%) ATS system plays brings the mark to 38-19-1 (67%) YTD

The recommendation to take Houston +3 also hit on the ML, which is not part of the tally above.

Week 12 Plays

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On my website, I currently have:

4 ATS Computer System Plays which are 36-16-2 ATS (69%) so far this season
2 Overs System Plays which are 7-3 (70%) so far this season
4 Unders System Plays which are 16-10-2 (62%) so far this season

I will post my personal plays, which are 26-11-2 ATS (70%), on Friday evening.

To view the plays, visit the website.

Week 11 Summary

Week 11 involved two losses which we'll bounce back from but were very difficult to swallow at the time. The first was the Over in the TB/Min game. The second was the Steelers game, stolen by the referees.

The only 4pm game we had was completely robbed from us. The Steelers game ended in what should have been a cover, and the ref admitted his mistake in taking the TD off the board (Click for Link) Not to mention the 13-1 penalty advantage for SD, or the fact that the only SD TD was due to a phantom pass interference call on the Steelers. The Steelers had double the yards on the game (410 to 213) and had 13 more minutes in time of possession. But it wasn't just a bad beat, it was a stolen game by the official, which makes it so tough.

What makes it even more difficult to take is the fact the ref's decision came:

A. 10 minutes after the game was over
B. After the points were on the board
C. After an official review so they had a chance to make sure they were right
D. After decision from the booth which would allow the play to stand
E. After a 2nd officials huddle that then ignored booth review and provided a wrong ruling

Also factor the fact that they removed the points from the board 10 minutes after the game was over, and then seconds later, the official openly admitted that what he did was wrong and the TD should have stood.

But even before that game, the TB/Min Over play was the definition of a bad beat. The two teams needed to put up over 38.5 points to win the play. They put up 32, so all we needed was 1 more TD to cover. Anyone who didn't watch the game probably thought it was a defensive struggle. But the reality was TB marched the ball up the field with ease time and time again, getting inside the Minnesota 20 on five occasions, but walked away with only 1 TD to show for it. Want more? How about the fact that the teams COMBINED for THREE PUNTS!!! TB only punted once! Min only punted twice!

More to make you sick: Here are drives where TB advanced the ball into Min territory only to kick FGs or fumble:

TB reached the -
Min 37 - TB turnover on downs
Min 17 - TB FG
Min 3 - TB FG
Min 30 - TB fumble
Min 10 - TB FG
Min 8 - TB FG
Min 23 - TB missed FG
Min 28 - TB kneel down - end of game

I was sick to my stomach after that terrible performance. We got the TB cover, but it was closer than it ever should have been. TB dominated that game in every respect, but was totally worthless once in scoring range. Which was quite surprising, considering prior to this game, Minnesota's defense was in the bottom half of red zone efficiency, allowing a TD on 56% of trips inside the red zone. TB was inside 5 times and came away with only 1 TD, and was inside the 30 (for a 47 yd FG or closer) on two other occasions and walked away with zero points.

Normally I don't dwell on the bad beats, but to have two in one day, one of which was a pure robbery and the other would be impossible to believe if you read the stats I just listed above and then looked at the final score of the game. It took these outcomes to provide the first ATS computer system losing weekend of the season, finishing 2-3 ATS instead of 3-2, due to the Steelers game. Rest assured, I am not forgetting that fact and will be working harder than ever this week to ensure we get back on track and reestablish the record I earned up to this point.

Week 10 Summary

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What a terrific way to start out my new website: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Week 10 was one of many great weeks here at Sharp Football Analysis, but was especially rewarding given the customers who joined and participated in my first weekend of plays, and I was pleased to reward them.

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) on the day, with solid winners on NYJ and NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my Personal Plays to 25-10-2 (71%). And I am now 6-2-2 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

ATS System Plays VERY strong, going 3-1 ATS with winners on KC, Atl, NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my ATS Computer System Plays to 34-13-1 (72%). And I am now 10-5-1 (67%) the last 3 weeks.

Overs System also did well. One play was moved off the board on Saturday due to potential inclement weather in Chicago (but nearly went over the total even with poor conditions). The only remaining Overs System play, NYG/Phi Over 43, went over with ease, hitting 44 with 11:24 left to go in the 3rd quarter, an easy over. Last season, many of these top plays went over soon after halftime.

That brings the YTD mark for the Overs System to 7-2 (78%), and is now 3-0 (100%) the last 4 weeks.

Unders System underperformed, going 2-3 in Week 10 (40%), though I did warn on Wednesday about the NO/Atl total being the highest on the board (those games seem to go over more than under).

That brings the YTD mark for the Unders System to 14-8-1 (64%) and is now 9-3-1 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

You can sign up NOW for the season long pass for a 20% discount or you can wait until Wednesday to sign up for just Week 11!!

Important Announcement from Sharp Football Analysis

Thank you for your interest in my website and newsletter for the first 9 weeks of the 2008 NFL season. For over half the season, I provided completely free plays and analysis which, of course, took up a lot of my personal time. Much more than you perhaps can imagine. My write-ups are detailed and come from hours of research, and my computer system is going strong as it has for the past several years. And for over half the season, if you followed my plays, you would be doing very well. 23-9-2 (72%) in all plays I e-mailed out. If you decided to use my plays to legally bet on the games:

A $25/game bettor should be up $328 so far this year.
A $50/game bettor should be up $655 so far this year.
A $100/game bettor should be up $1,310 so far this year.
A $250/game bettor should be up $3,275 so far this year.

I know I have mentioned this before, but of all the tout services who are monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, there is NOT A SINGLE ONE (thru Week 8 Results as Week 9 Results are not posted yet) who has released 30+ plays and is hitting 72% for the season. Yet that is what I have been able to accomplish, with assistance from my system, my research databases, and my hard work each and every week so far this season.

Other touts charge a fair price for their plays. If you found my site through Fox Sports Radio, you know they have a famous handicapper on their show. What you may not know is that he charges $119 for just one week of his plays.

Other touts charge $65+ for one single game. It would be one thing if they won at a very high rate. Unfortunately, the vast majority of professionals are much better marketers and professional harassers than they are quality handicappers.

I have read the e-mails sent by people offering to donate money and I have never replied to them. I was doing this for free and enjoyed helping people out. But what I found was: people always want more. They were not satisfied with just getting my personal plays, which did go 4-1-2 the past 2 weeks (80%) and 72% for the season. I suppose I don't blame them for wanting my system plays and analysis of those plays because my system's record has been very solid thus far. ATS my system has produced 44 plays since week 4, just over 7 per week, and has hit 72%. My totals systems have again been producing superb results (see records below). However, when trying to figure out the logistics of such an operation, it was a difficult challenge: I currently send out about 3 e-mails a week. If I added system plays to my mailings, we would have 4 and at times 5, depending on weather related plays. It is a fair amount of work to type up these and send them to the many people from the several e-mail addresses I have. I also posted my plays on my website and then on message boards, all of which took up a lot of my time. So writing up my system plays and sending those out would certainly add more time to my already busy schedule. And would be in addition to the most important things: running my system, performing research, selecting my top plays and providing write-ups.

After much thought and consideration, I decided to do the following:

I started a website, and paid for hosting and support. It is:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

I now have a new e-mail address: sharp@sharpfootballanalysis.com (but you can always contact me as a backup at my old sharpfootballanalysis@gmail.com )

The plan going forward is as follows:

You can essentially purchase "access" to a single page within my website which I will update throughout the week. You can being viewing this page on Wednesdays of each week, when I will have my system plays posted. I will then add a brief comment on the plays and any information I think you should know at the time, including which plays I would be leery of playing yet due to injuries. I will still be providing my "personal plays" either on Friday evening or Saturday morning, as well as Sunday and Monday updates. This week Thursday games start in the NFL, so any insights or plays for Thursday night will be posted on Thursdays. After Monday, you will need to purchase "access" for another week. I also post weather plays and will post those at any point in time starting on Wednesday.

So, what kinds of plays will you get over the course of one week?

• Personal Plays - 23-9-2 (72%) YTD - Typically the top 3 or 4 ATS Plays per week and strong totals selections. The number of selections may vary week to week but on average it has been 3. All personal plays will include write-ups of varying length and are supported by hours of research. For Sunday games, these will be issued on Friday evening or Saturday morning, with an update on Sunday morning. For Thursday and Monday games, any plays will be issued on game day.

• ATS Computer System Plays - 31-12-1 (72%) YTD - Usually approximately 5 to 7 plays per week, these are released on Wednesday and are generated by my computer system. The goal for you, the user, is to find the best line possible between Wednesday and kickoff. Usually, unpopular underdogs are best played closer to kickoff and popular favorites are be best played earlier in the week.

• Totals Computer System Plays - my computer system usually generates a number of rated totals plays on a weekly basis. The strongest of these plays have come from the "Top Totals System" which may release only one play a week or less and is typically a targeted Overs play. That system went 21-1 last season and is 6-2 (75%) this season. Other totals systems generate additional plays, Overs and Unders. All totals plays will be released on Wednesday.

• Weather Alert Plays - these plays generally occur in the colder months in more Northern states, though there could be a weather play in any location predicted to experience inclement weather. Plays last year included games in Pittsburgh, New England, Seattle and Chicago to name a few cities. I study weather from a variety of lesser-known specialty sources and typically issue these plays mid-late week, as the weather systems become more defined. Getting on these totals early, before the general public is aware of the weather situation, is the most important goal. Not all plays with inclement weather will be played. The goal, as always, is to find those that have the most value. These plays will be issued whenever they arise, anytime after Wednesday.

Of course, all personal plays will come with my in depth research, trends and analysis, each and every week. While perhaps not as convenient as checking your e-mail to find my plays, I think it will be quite easy to check one single page each and every week that gets updated to add my plays, insight, and analysis I have to share with you. You won't have to wonder what my system plays are, you won't have to wonder exactly when the e-mail will go out, and you will have the easy ability to contact me should any problems arise.

I have decided to do all of this for only $15 per week. A $25 bettor should have already made $328 so far this year on my plays, and $15 is only 4.5% of that. $15 is only 2% of what a $50 has made on my plays, and is only 1% of what a $100 bettor has made on my plays.

Again, you are not paying $15 for 3 "personal plays" per week. You will be getting all my system plays, which include totals and ATS, as well as my write-ups, trends and information. The goal is not just to provide winning plays. If that was the case, I could just tell you 3 teams to take a week. The goal is to also teach you about my handicapping methods and help you learn how to spot good situations, and equally as important, when to back down from forcing a play.

My system records from this season and prior seasons are posted below. As you know, past results do not guarantee future success, and I have indicated several times on the website that I in no way guarantee any plays or outcome, nor do I guarantee a certain level of success the rest of the season. The only thing I can tell you is that my system is what it is, it has done very well, I have not changed anything and I will continue to work as hard as I can towards achieving results which meet and exceed my own high standards.

Therefore, this is the last official newsletter from my gmail address and I hope you enjoyed the plays and information I provided free of charge for the first 9 weeks of the season. I hope I can continue to provide high quality service and winning plays to you at http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com and have enjoyed helping you learn and benefit from my plays for over half the season.

Thank you,
Sharp

2008 - 2009 Results thru Week 9:

Personal Plays: 23-9-2 (72%)

System Plays:

ATS System Plays: 31-12-1 (72%)
Top Overs Plays: 6-2 (75%)
Overs #2 Plays: 12-9 (59%)
Unders Plays: 12-5 (71%)

2008 Note: ATS System Plays were simplified and combined to provide for easier following since 2007.

2007-2008 Results:

Personal Plays: 58-36-3 (62%)

System Plays:

Top Overs Plays: 21-1 (95%)
Overs #2 Plays: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)

2007 Note: System was further developed and additional types of plays were generated since 2006.

2006-2007 Results:

System Plays:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006 Results:

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Note on Records:

System records from 2007-2008 were and posted on message boards online on a weekly basis for verification, as were all personal plays. Personal plays from 2008-2009 were posted on message boards and e-mailed to subscribers on a weekly basis. System plays from weeks 7-9 were sent to Fox Sports Network's "First Team on Fox" for validation, during which they went 11-6-1 ATS (65%).

Past results will not guarantee future perfomance.

MNF

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First a side note: Please check your e-mail tomorrow (Tuesday) as I will be sending out important information regarding my system plays and personal plays for Week 10.

As for MNF:

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you or persuade you.

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched.

System:

Side: Redskins, winning by 5
Total: I've got a predicted line in my top system of 41.5. It is very close to a play but is a fraction off being recognized as a top play, however, only if you get the Over 36.5. If you can only get 37 it would not be as close to a play on the over (obviously). Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5.

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith. For the Skins, will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hardhitting home loss to the defending superbowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, that remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

For the Redskins:

• In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
• In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.
• Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.
• Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
• Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.
• The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.
• The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.
  

• Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).
• In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS
• Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

For the Steelers:

• Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog
• The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.
• Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.
• The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.
  

Week 9 Review

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A very solid 2-1 (67%) day. Both underdog plays won outright and the Ten play lost by 1 point ATS. Putting my mark to 23-9-2 (72%) ATS for the season. The 6 system plays I have released the last two weeks (3 last week and 3 this week) went 4-1-1 ATS (80%). Extremely strong results the last 2 weeks from the top plays (in my opinion) from my computer system.

The five computer system plays I sent to Czaban on Thursday went 3-2 (60%) for Week 9, putting my 3 week stretch of sending them my computer system plays to an impressive 11-5-1 (69%) mark.

The only good thing about the 1 point ATS loss by Ten was that those who teased my plays, which I have heard back from a couple of you, enabled you guys to go undefeated so congrats on your wins.

I do have a computer system play for the game tonight, and will complete my evaluation today to determine if I want to include it as a personal play, and send out what I've got later today.

Congrats to all who have followed my plays for the first 9 weeks of this season. Hitting 72% on 34 releases is as solid as can be, but I still think I can do even better. And my computer system certainly has been leading me in the right direction and has produced extremely impressive results itself, and those who have been asking for my computer system plays the last few weeks, your wish may be granted sooner than you think.