System Results to date and Totals Study

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Last night was a perfect example of what I was saying in the lack of value. I'm sure Ravens backers were fired up after the first half, but they found themselves lucky to only be down by 7 with 9:20 left in the game. Steelers lost multiple key players in that game and still beat the Ravens by 3. As a bettor, that was not the type of game you want your money on either side. It ended way too close to the line for comfort for either side. Which is why I passed. They don't always turn out like that, but in this case, it did and was good to pass on the game.

I wanted to give you an update on my system. I told you earlier, the system gets cranking the further along in the season we get. But, I've been pleased w/ the results thus far, moreso for the ATS systems than the totals, which I'll explain later.

As you know, this season is different in that I am not just sending out my system plays, I am weeding them down and also adding in other plays that my own research and logic show are prudent, and that's what you are getting each week. And that is my 14-4 (78%) ATS record. But my system has been doing well itself, and here are those records:

ATS Systems

I have two systems - a dog friendly system and a favorite friendly system.

• When both systems lean to the same side, the results have been solid. 19-12 ATS (61%) and if leaning towards the road team, 8-4 ATS (67%).
  
• Though not changing anything w/ the system from last year, I am evaluating the output more and categorizing it better. For instance, I'm looking at the top two home value plays for each system, each week. Sometimes these plays are the same for both my ATS systems, but from weeks two-four, the system went 5-2 ATS (71%). Last week combining the two, it had KC, Ten and Oak (2-1, where Oak really got burned in that cover).
• Top dogs from my favorite friendly system has gone 3-1 ATS (75%).
  
• Top 3 per week from both my dog and favorite systems have gone a combined 6-3 ATS the past two weeks (67%).
• Top five per week where both systems are in agreement are 5-2 ATS since week two (71%).
• Wrong team favored where both systems are in agreement is 4-2 ATS since week two (67%).

O/U Systems

• My top overs system has gone 7-3 (70%) the past two weeks.
• My secondary overs system has gone 7-5 (58%) the past two weeks.
• When both overs systems lean to the same side, the results have been 9-5-2 (64%).
• The unders systems have not fared as well, and the main reason is the number of overs so far this season, which I'll explain below.

To see how my system has fared in the past 2 years, go HERE.

Here is an article I wrote based upon my analysis of the Overs/Unders thus far in 2008:

Uncanny amount of overs so far, and Analysis

So far this year, overs have gone 34-24-2 (59%). The last 5 years, from 2003-2007, there were an average through four weeks of 26-33-1 (44%). That is a full 15% increase in the amount of overs from average results. The last season that was close to this average was 2002, when overs went 32-28 (53%) through four weeks. Still less definitely less than the 59% we've seen this year. In fact, you'd have to go back to 97 to find a higher % of overs (61%).

There are a number of things that you then have to consider.

#1 - Did rule changes affect the overs?
#2 - If no, what could we expect from the rest of the season?

I'll first share a chart with you I put together, then walk you through my conclusions:


#1 - As you can see, seasons which had a large % of overs in the first 4 weeks (above 50%) were the only season with a decrease in the % of overs (2nd column from the right) the rest of the season.

#2 - Overall, overs hit only around 49% for the season, which is why playing overs in general (and not targeting specific games) is square and you would not see that 52.4% needed to gain a profit @ -110 juice.

#3 - After starting out very favorable to overs, the season ending % in those seasons (97, 00, 02) finished very close to the average 49%.

#4 - If we project that we will finish this season close to 49%, Overs will only be hitting at 46% the rest of the season, or (projecting a standard amount of pushes) -15 games under .500 the rest of the season.

#5 - If we projected the start to the season (34-24-2) at 59% over the last 13 weeks, the last 13 weeks would see 117-80-7, or +37 games over .500. Likewise, if we look at last season's results over the last 13 weeks, the season finished out +19 games over .500.

#6 - Therefore, whether comparing it to last season or the first 4 weeks of this season, the number of games that are going to swing (from those that hit at over to those that will now have to hit at under) will be 34 (vs. last season) and 52 (vs. this season's % thus far).

#7 - Mentally, you have to be aware of this when capping totals the rest of the season. Oddsmakers will be on top of their lines, knowing they have to adjust things to allow unders to hit at a better rate overall, netting their sportsbooks more revenue. I would be very suprised if we finished this season higher than 51%. Therefore, many more games are going to be going under than you may expect based on last year or results season to date. So while looking at the percentages may not seem that much, remember that the "swing" in your mind from what you've seen last year and so far this year, to what will actually happen, could be about 34 games in total. Which is over 2.6 per weekend, and is of course significant when capping totals.

So overall, I wanted to share this study with you and also share my system's results. I think the season has gone very well thus far, 14-4 (78%) is not too shabby through 4 weeks. But I think I can improve upon that, and while every week may not be up to my high standards, I think overall we will be in very good shape at the end of the season.

Week 4 MNF

Typically when everyone makes a huge deal about a game last week, it's good fade material. I realize Pittsburgh looked terrible offensively against Philly and struggled in the wind/rain in Cleveland the week before. And how great Baltimore looked off a bye week at home against a terrible offense/defense in Cleveland, and a game in which they were losing at the half. But I love when everyone says that it's time to take a Rookie QB on the road for the 1st game of the year in Pittsburgh. Just not a good recipe for winning plays.

However, my system is giving me no confidence in much value in this play. It's actually leaning towards Baltimore, but by the slightest of margins. Certainly not enough for me to consider taking Baltimore in this spot - just not enough value there.

My system has been hitting pretty well overall this year, better ATS than in totals but there are several reasons for that. Tomorrow I intend to update my site w/ my system records to date and give a breakdown of what they are looking like. Again, this season unlike in the past, I am using the system to assist me make my plays, as one consideration, as opposed to playing every single system play.

So, for the 2nd week in a row, I am laying off in tonight's game. If pressed I could make a lean, and that lean would probably go towards my desire to fade the talking heads who only seem concerned w/ the offensive problems of the Steelers and the defensive dominance that Baltimore has put forward over two of the most dominant forces in the NFL this year, Cincy and Cleveland (yes, that was sarcastic). But I'm not going to even go that far and I'll just say: Officially, no play. I look for value in my selections, as my goal is to consistently produce winners. And the way to do that is to limit my plays to only those w/ the most value.

I'll pack up another winning week, and a 14-4 record in hopes to produce even better results next weekend. Good luck in your selections tonight!

2008 Week 4 Plays

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Hou +7.5
Ten -3
SF +5

Hou +7

• Houston is 9-3 ATS vs Jacksonville, including 6-0 ATS following a loss
• Houston is 10-4-1 ATS after losing while accumulating 120+ rushing yards, including 6-2 ATS since 2003 if away
• The Jaguars are 5-8 ATS after facing the Colts, including 1-6 ATS as favorites.
• I also have two solid rushing systems, which are 30-15-1 ATS and 17-8-0 ATS since 2002 and 6-3-0 ATS and 4-1-1 ATS since 2007, and both are suggesting Houston +7

I like Hou in this situation even though this is a team who is going to be playing through a lot of adversity. They really "showed up" last week in Tennessee and gave the Titans a battle. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, which happens more than you think in the NFL w/ bye weeks, but still is not extremely common. I just like this spot for them and I will look for them to get the win. I've seen several outlets who still have +7.5, so grab that if you can but don't spend too much on the hook if you would be buying to it. The Texans are actually 8-1 ATS when facing the Jaguars and the Jags have a better record, and they are 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville if the Jags have a better record. In those 4 games, Houston was underdogs of 7, 10, 10.5 and 13. Houston won all 3 games where the spread was fewer than 13 points. Most recently a low scoring, 3 point win in 2006. I don't know that this game will be as similar, as Houston has a lot going against their favor, having already lost their bye week and not playing at home in now the 4th week of the season. But I see them rallying here and getting the cover.


Ten -3

• Teams off a home win in which they covered and are home favorites of a FG or less to a team who is also off of a win in which they covered are 11-3-1 ATS since 2002 and 23-8-1 since 1996
• Tennessee is 11-1 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season at home as a favorite of less than 3.5 points, winning by an avg of 8 points and covering by an avg of 6 points. They are 4-0 ATS against the NFC in this situation.
• In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 13 points and failed to cover by an avg of 10 points. They have not won ATS in their last 10 contests.

I know what you may say - "he's playing Tennessee again?" and the answer is yes. I can't say I'm head over heels for this play, but I won't let the fact that Ten has covered 3 straight and won 3 straight dissuade me from making this play. As you know, I look at each game and of course analyze public perception as one factor, so of course I do care about more than looking only at week 4. I care about weeks 1-3 for both of these teams. But doing my research, I found that since 1990, there have been 34 NFL teams who started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. In week 4, there were 9 of those teams who fit a similar situation as Ten here. Favorites of 3.5 or fewer points. Those 9 teams went 7-2 ATS in week 4, covering by an average of 6 points. If these teams were playing at home, they went 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 12 points. And actually, the last time this happened was last season, when 3-0 GB ventured into the Metrodome and defeated the Vikings, covering in the win by 6 points. Again, this was surely not a REASON to take Ten here, but it was a reason NOT TO BE SCARED to play them again. Against Min, they are not my favorite play on my card, but I do like them to get the job done at home.

SF +5

• The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in the first 10 weeks of the season after winning as a home favorite and heading onto the road
• The Saints under Sean Payton are 0-3 ATS after a road loss
• The Saints under Sean Payton are 3-8 ATS as home favorites, and just 1-5 ATS if favored by more than 4 points (failing to cover by an avg of 7 points and actually losing SU 3 of these 6 games)
• SF also falls into one of my rushing systems that has seen some success over the past several seasons.
  

I don't have much to say in this matchup, and you don't want to hear matchup analysis from me. The Saints are off a 2 game road trip and are finally home for 3 straight games. Teams who were on the road and then come home for the first of 3 home games (before week 10, so they are still in the early stage of the year), and are favored by more than a FG but less than a TD are actually 6-13 ATS.

2008 Week 4

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I am glad we stayed away on MNF: numbers/trends pointed to NYJ, my gambling instincts and gut pointed to SD. I take all of that into account when making plays, and it's for that reason I decided to look ahead rather than force a play.

It's at times like this, especially on MNF, where a lot of guys feel forced to make a play, and unfortunately forcing a play can get ugly, especially after a rough weekend.

I always look at it from the perspective that each and every game is 1 our of 256 regular season games. If you can capitalize on a game, great. If not, move on and cap the next one. There are times when MNF games are great plays due to the high number of wagers and the way Vegas sets their lines in anticipation of the bets placed. So sometimes it is worth it to play on MNF even if the value is close to being there (but not quite 100%), but the public's reaction to the line and the line movement is assisting in your play. You have to pick your spots.

On to week 4 and looking to produce solid results.

2008 Week 3 Monday Night Football

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Tough loss yesterday on the Bears. But I moved past it and was studying the matchup tonight.

One of my ATS systems has gone 2-0 so far this week on its big plays, Ten and Bal being those 2 winners. Tonight it has SD winning by a FG.

The other ATS system has SD winning by an even 9.

Doing my research in other phases of this matchup, I have found the following:

• Jets are 10-5-1 ATS traveling to the West Coast, including 4-1-1 since 2002 and 3-0 @ SD
  
• Jets are 4-0 ATS as a road dog after facing NE and losing the previous week since 2003, including 3-0 ATS under Mangini
• The Chargers are 3-11 ATS at home vs teams from the Eastern divisions since 1995, including 0-4 ATS as a TD+ favorite.
• In those TD+ favored games, the score has been decided by just three points in 3 of the 4, and by two points in the other game.

While this leads to a strong lean towards NYJ, I am not fully confident in this play. Taking a lot into account, including the quality of opposition and SD's two, last second losses, it makes it very hard to go against this team right now.

Another key to a game like this will be special teams. NYJ had cut their punter after the NE game due to his terrible punting (27 yd net avg on 4 punts) but had to resign him late last week after his replacement hurt himself. Unless this punter (and the coverage teams) can improve dramatically on their season avg (34 net, 29th in the league), the Jets D could be facing some short fields quite frequently. To note, SD is #4 in the league in net yds/punt (45 yds).

I try to share with you my insight and analysis, but I typically will stay away from the traditional rhetoric you will see elsewhere about "SD coming out fired up", as that's not actual insight you need to hear from me. You already know both teams will be fired up and I'm not wasting your time with that.

In summary, it remains to be seen if NYJ can cover w/ a FG loss, as some of my numbers indicate, but my official advice here is a "PASS".

Yes, I'd love to get back to .500 for the week. But I'm not going to force plays nor am I in this for a week by week record. The end of the season record and the positive flow into your pockets is what I care about. And there is better value next week than I can see tonight.

From my perspective, I have released 15 plays so far this season, and only two of them were bad reads. (Det in week 1 and Buf this past weekend). The other 12 won (and many won easily) and the Chi game was the closest and toughest loss of the season.

It still puts us at 12-3 and I've already begun breaking things down for Week 4. Good luck tonight in your selections!

2008 Week 3 Plays

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2008 Week 3 Plays:

Ten -4.5
Chi -3
Buf -9.5

Week 3 Comment:

My system is up and running, but as it still is early, I am taking it into consideration but not blindly following it. The system is exceptionally good on certain totals, but there are no large plays this week.

Writeups:

Ten -4 (@ BetUS)
-4.5 (Elsewhere)

• Ten is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home off of back to back wins since 2002
• Home teams off a win and facing an opponent off of a 21+ point loss are 9-2 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2002.
• In the last 10 years, teams w/ a losing record who are off a bye and lost by 21+ prior to the bye who are underdogs in their next game are 3-8 ATS.
• If that team is a road dog, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 22 points and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs.
• Houston is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS on the road off a 7+ point loss when playing a team in it's own division who has a winning record. They lose by an avg of 19 points and fail to cover by an avg of 8 points.
  

The only thing that draws hesitation is that the last 6 matchups by these two teams have been decided on average by 6.5 points. Ten has won all of them, but they have not been easy. However, 3 of those 6 games pitted Ten as the underdogs. The avg line for those 6 games was Ten -1.3 points. The largest line was Ten -6.5 which Ten failed to cover.

Linesmakers have added some wood to the line compared to the recent average, but it does not dissuade me from taking Ten in this spot. Of course, there is no real telling how Ike has affected the mentality of the team. DT Travis Johnson's house was destroyed, a tree crashed into defensive end Mario Williams' home, and a ceiling collapsed in one room of tight end Owen Daniels' house. I have read quotes where they will be "playing for the city", which we know what happened in the Saints first game after Katrina. However, I believe Ten will win and should cover the 4 to 4.5 point line.

Chi -3

• Chicago is 3-1 SU in Home Openers under Lovie Smith. In the 3 victories, they averaged 23 points more than their opponents and covered the spread on average by 16.5 points.
• Teams who lost as road dogs the week before, but were winning at the half, and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 13-2 ATS since 2001.
• Teams who won 2 weeks ago and went away as road dogs the following week and lost but were winning at the half playing and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 7-0 ATS since 2000.
• Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS on the road the week after a home win.
• If their opponent lost the week before, that number drops to 1-7 ATS
• Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS on a Sunday home opener for their opponent, and if a dog, 1-4 ATS.
• Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 3-10 ATS vs. NFC teams outside their division and 4-9 SU. In their 9 losses, they lost by an avg of 9 points, and failed to cover as a dog in those losses by an avg of 3 points.
• Since 2003, Tampa Bay is 5-20 ATS on the road against non-divisional opponents, including 0-5 in 2007.
  

I think this game will be close and TB's defense is the reason. Some games I play because I believe a team will easily cover the spread. Others I play because I have a high confidence level that a team will cover the spread. The latter is one of those occasions. While I don't predict a lopsided and easy victory, I do think Chi will win this game by 4 or more points.

I am always a little leary on a -3 home line. Historically, it has not been kind to the favorite (2007 in particular). However, we'll lay the 3 and pull for the Bears to continue their run. As a side note, I do believe Lovie's familiarity with Griese's skill set and tendencies is more of an advantage to Chicago than Griese's familiarity with playing in Chicago and against the Chicago defense in practice is an advantage to Tampa Bay.

Buffalo -9.5

• Since 2001, the Raiders are 1-9 ATS the week before facing the rival Chargers.
• If playing a team outside their division, they are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU, losing by an avg of 16 and failing to cover by an avg of 17.
• If on the road, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, losing by an average of 17 and failing to cover by an avg of 14.
• If they are underdogs, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing by an avg of 24 and failing to cover by an avg of 16.
• Since 2001, the Raiders are 0-4 ATS and SU when playing a non-divisional sandwich game (previous team was in their division, next team is in their division, current team is not).
• The Raiders are 1-8 ATS when traveling to play another AFC team in the Eastern time zone since 2003.
• Since 1996, Buffalo is 7-1 ATS at home as a TD+ favorite after a win.
• In the last 2 years, Buffalo is 13-5-1 ATS after covering in their previous game, including 7-2 ATS at home.
  

Advice Only:

If you are taking the Buf/Oak Under, make sure you have 37!

This game was on my radar for a potential Under play, however, it would go against my system. So I am not playing it, but I just want to provide this advice to you if you are planning to play the Under:

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time
Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time
Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time
Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

Therefore, having 37 would allow you to push on a number that occurs twice as often as 38, 36, or 35.

You having 36.5 will allow you to win on 36, but you lose on 37, which is twice as valuable than 36. Therefore, I highly recommend if you at all were contemplating playing this under, you take U 37. Again, this is not an official play, it is a recommendation if you do decide to play the Under in this game.

2008 Week 3

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Rolled out my system and saw the plays. Doing my own capping and comparing it to the system to see what makes the final cut this week. This week is a tricky one, in that of the 16 games, only 1 is a home dog. It is also the first week of games prior to the bye weeks starting, so you have several teams heading into bye weeks after this game.

Further affecting things is that two of the 16 games feature "victim teams" of what I'll call the "ghost bye week" in Bal and Hou. Most teams spend their bye week getting healthy (a few days off), focusing on their next opponent in 2 weeks, and then installing new packages or scouting for future opposition.

Bal and Hou finished Week 1 focused on one another. Their "bye week" was spent focused on a team they thought they'd face. They did not take any time off, nor did they start thinking about Ten and Cle (their week 3 opponents). Bal spent last Thursday preparing Flacco for the crowd noise in Houston's Reliant Stadium, and decided to travel to Houston on Sunday due learning on Thurs that the game was postponed to Monday. It wasn't until Saturday that both teams realized they would not play one another this past Monday. So they started out this week preparing for Ten and Cle. So nothing was "bye" about the week at all except for the lack of a brusing 60 minute game (which is still something to be thankful for if you are a player, but I'm sure you'd rather have a few weeks in a row of that brusing than just 1 game and now it is 15 weeks straight)

Not exactly what you want from a bye week and this completely ignores the fact that Hou players may have been dealing w/ the Ike aftermath during the week.

All these factors combined present a lot to think about when capping these games.

I hope to have my plays out tonight, but there is a strong chance I wont have them out until Saturday AM. Usually I will try to get things out Friday night, and will still aim for that, but you may not get the e-mail until Saturday AM, just to give you a heads up.

Week 2 - MNF

First, just because I am 10-1 ATS to start the season does not mean load up on my plays. I do my best, but I'm not going to sustain 91% winners over the course of the season. None of my plays are guaranteed - I put in my homework and try to produce results. That's the best I can do.

Second, make sharp decisions about your money management. It's your money, after all. Keep it that way. Don't bet over your head, and stick to your plan that you started from the beginning of the season. For those that followed my plays on Oak, Ten and Chi, I want you to consider putting the same amount on this play as you did those other plays. Don't get dazzled by the lights of MNF. Simply put, this play is no better or no worse than any of those other 3 plays. I have found good value so far this season in "less appealing" games. Tonight is a little different bird, in that it is MNF and is easily the heaviest bet game of the week. So consider that, as well.

That said, I have a play on MNF that I liked from the line release and I still like it today. Of course, you could have received more points at line release, but let's hope that will not be the difference tonight. I started analyzing it last Wednesday and everything checked out. Of course, huge stage tonight in Dallas. And again, this is not a system play, so don't go all in.

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

• Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
  
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
• In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
• Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
• Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start the Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.

2008 Week 2 Plays

A reminder prior to the plays: My system has not kicked in, so all plays are based on my own handicapping methods. As good or bad as these plays may turn out, I anticipate stronger results as the season progresses and my system syncs up more and more.

Season to date record for Sharp Football Analysis plays: 7-1

Week 2 Plays:

Chi +3.5
Ten +1
Oak +3.5

Pending Weather Confirmation (will update Sunday) Pit/Cle O 44.5 - DO NOT MAKE THIS PLAY, READ BELOW!!!

Week 2 Comment:

Typically have a short list and from it, my plays. Usually 50-70% of my short list makes my plays. I am very selective from the jump and very focused. This week, my short list is about the same size, but only ~40% of my short list plays have made official play status so far. I still have several plays which I am leaning on, but have not been able to officially release tonight due to a variety of situations surrounding the plays. They don't have my full confidence level. Therefore, you can expect to see at least one, or likely two plays released on Sunday AM. So please do not be disappointed by the small number of plays thus far. Sometimes weeks are like this, and that's all I can tell you about that.

Writeups:

Chi +3.5

I know the only saying about taking a team off a Primetime, Nationally televised win such as SNF or MNF and playing them the following week. People, including some "sharps" are commenting on it. But what is the truth?

The truth is, teams coming off a game such as this who won as a road dog and are now the favorites have gone 12-20 ATS since 2002. Including 2-3 ATS last season. Not so hot.

But that's not what we have here. Here we have an undervalued dog who is a dog again for the second week in a row. Teams who played SNF or MNF and won as a road dog and are dogs for a 2^nd straight week are actually 6-2 ATS since 2002 and 2-0 ATS last season.

That stat isn't necessarily a REASON to take Chi, it's more the "truth" behind some of the numbers you may have seen. As you may know from my style, I'm always one to investigate a stat/trend and find the answer for myself. The fact is, if Chi became a favorite for Sunday's game simply because they looked great on SNF, I wouldn't like them as much.

But Car pulled off a "stunner" to many (remember, I had Car + points last week) out in SD, and now are returning home a town hero. And they've been crowned the 3.5 point favorite on Sunday.

I like Chi in this spot to cover the 3.5, and a couple of reasons I can share are:

• As good as Carolina is as a road dog at pulling off upsets, when they get back home they lose gas and are just 1-4 ATS (since 2002) in games following a road dog victory towards the 1^st half of the season.

• Carolina is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers under John Fox, including 0-5 SU as a favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU in week 2 games under Lovie Smith.

Ten +1

Since 2002, Tennessee has faced the following teams in Week 2: Indy 3 times, SD once, Dal once, Bal once.

Which week 2 was not like the others? If you guessed Bal, you would be right. Ten won that game 25-10 on a +3.5 line. Ten is going to be glad to face this Cincy team in week 2 as opposed to a NFL power like they have in prior seasons.

• After winning at home as an underdog, then hitting the road as a dog the following week, Ten is 5-1 ATS including 3-0 since 2002.

• Cincy on the other hand is merely mediocre when following up a road loss back at home. They are 3-3-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis after losing on the road and returning home as a fav.

• The game after facing Jacksonville and getting a win, Tennessee is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

• Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis following a loss to the Ravens. (Remember, Marvin Lewis coached for Baltimore and those matchups vs. the Ravens are big games for him).

Oak +3.5

A key trend on this one: Teams that were 15+ point road underdogs the prior week and lost in a close game (7 points or fewer) are 2-8 SU the following week back at home.


Potential Play "Heads-Up"

I will give you a "heads up" on a play for Sunday night, however, I will not advise betting until Sunday. This is because WEATHER could affect this play. Of course, that game is Pit/Cle in Cleveland. As you know from my update yesterday morning, I posted Hurricane Ike's storm track. I will update it here again:


The beauty of these images is that they will constantly update. Therefore, the words I am typing now may not relate to the picture you see in a few hours. But, as of Friday afternoon, it appears this system may impact Cleveland on Sunday evening. A lot will still depend on actual storm track once it makes landfall as well as the speed at which it is moving. However, current models are tracking it to hit the Ohio area on Sunday evening. However, some models do show it taking a slightly more "Western" track and may not hit Cleveland Sunday Evening. As of now, the current forecast for Sunday evening in Cleveland is:

And the forecast at Cleveland Stadium, which is right off the water, is currently calling for 20 mph winds from the south, and thunderstorms. If weather was not a factor, I would have already made the play.

I WILL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH I WILL STILL LEAVE THIS WRITE UP HERE, I DEFINITELY DO NOT ADVISE MAKING THIS PLAY. IN FACT, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I ALMOST ADVISE REVERSING AND PLAYING UNDER 44.5.

THIS STORM IS NO JOKE, AND IF THE SYSTEM IS INDEED DIRECTLY OVER CLEVELAND, AROUND 9PM EST, WHICH IS WHAT THE WEATHER REPORTS SEEM TO INDICATE, POINTS WILL DEFINITELY COME AT A PREMIUM. I CAME UP WITH THIS PLAY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS NOT GOING TO PLAY AS LARGE A ROLE. AS WE KNOW KNOW, IT WILL.

SO I AM STILL LEAVING MY WRITEUP HERE, BUT I WILL ADVISE FURTHER IN THE A.M.

Pit/Cle Over 44.5

Since Big Ben has been QB of the Steelers in 2004:

When playing IN Cleveland, the Steelers score an avg of 31 points (24, 41, 24, 34), and the final total game score of 49 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 12 points.

When playing the first H2H matchup of the season, regardless of location, the Steelers score an avg of 32 points (34, 34, 24, 34). The final total game score of 40 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 3 points.

To tally that up, Overs have gone 5-1 in the either the first H2H of the year or if the game is in Cleveland.

I also look back to last season, where Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. the Steelers, losing 34-7. They re-tooled, and those 7 points would be the fewest they would score all season. They went on to avg 26 points the rest of the season, including 51 in Week 2 (albeit vs Cin) and 28 in their next matchup w/ the Steelers.

This season, Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. Dallas, losing 28-10. They surely realize they will struggle to stop Pit on offense, and must find ways to produce big plays on offense and score a large number of points.

Now, I will make you aware that this 44.5 point total is WAY higher than typical totals in this series. Prior to last year's week 10 matchup, the average total for the previous 7 games was 37. Over went 5-2 by an avg of 7 points. Last year in week 10, the total was raised to 47.5, and the game finished at a total of 59, 11.5 points higher than the total.

While the 44.5 point posted total is much higher than fans of this series have come to expect, oddsmakers were left no choice with the constant overs these two teams posted. While I think this is a very fair posted line, I look for value on the side of the Over, as I see both teams contributing to a combined score which should surpass the posted line. A key component will be the kick return ability of Josh Cribbs, who missed last week's game. If Cribbs can get Cleveland into good field position to lead to a quick score in at least 1 of his returns, I see this game eclipsing 44.5.

2008 Week 2

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***Friday Lunchtime Update:

I am finalizing a few items and will have my plays out to the e-mail participants tonight or worst case, early tomorrow AM. After e-mails go out, I will post the plays on this board Saturday evening, and on messageboards Saturday Late or Sunday AM.

I have received several questions regarding the e-mails. Here is my proposed schedule for this week, and in weeks ahead:

1. Tues-Thurs - E-mail only if system generates a play which should be made immediately to lock in a line, as Vegas shifts lines against us and value is lost. (Typically will be a totals play)
2. Friday Eve/Saturday AM - Standard E-mail to announce plays for the weekend
3. Sunday Morning - Standard E-mail to announce plays for Sunday (which may or may not have been involving actual weather or injuries)
4. Monday - E-mail only if there is a MNF play which I want to announce and did not do so in my prior e-mails.

E-mails #2 and #3 will be sent each and every week. Sometimes the Sunday e-mail will have NO plays, but I will still send one out so you are not waiting to make selections. Other times the Sunday e-mail will have a play or two.

E-mails #1 and #4 will be sent only as certain plays/situations arise. Once I have sent out the e-mails, I will update an announcement here to inform you as such.***


***Thursday AM Weather Update!!!

Those in Houston already know this, but Hurricane Ike is serious and is bearing down on Houston. Landfall expected Saturday in the early AM, and it will probably make it back to a Category 3 prior to landfall.

The game Sunday afternoon in Houston vs. the Baltimore Ravens could be postponed to Monday, or moved to another city in Texas.

Mentally, this has to affect players on both teams, but players on Houston could have family and friends impacted severely on Saturday, depending on where they live. The Ravens may elect to travel early to Houston and ride out the Hurricane in a hotel.

I just wanted to put this on your radar, no pun intended, in case you were looking at the Hou/Bal game and did not realize these circumstances.


Thursday AM Update over.****


As I am working towards this weekend's plays, I thought I'd share w/ you some previously released reading material.

I encourage you to review all my posts and information I used last season, and I have compiled them in this easy to use page: HERE

I typically make a few types of plays.

• System Plays - these kick off Week 3 and after a few weeks I will have a very comfortable level with which systems may do great and which may do good. As you have seen from my record, most plays have done "at least" respectable, with the majority hitting 60-70%. Hitting above 52.4% is the minimum standard for all plays, but I of course aim higher. These system plays are my most reliable (historically) plays.

• Weather Plays - I study weather, particularly in Nov/Dec, and jump on lines as early as possible. There are also occasions I think the reaction may be too strong to weather, and will therefore shoot for a middle on a play.

• Early Release Plays - These plays typically are borne out of my totals system or weather plays. When I'm running my system and I see a great value in a total, and as I watch that total for 12-24 hours and I see some movement, I will definitely jump on that play. This could be as early as Tuesday morning. Same goes for weather. Typically huge storms and large weather systems are really hyped by the media starting on Thursday (I am referring mainly to snow here). Therefore, my goal usually is beat the public and I jump on these by Wed or Thurs at the latest. The idea is always to get the most value in a line, and you can't do that if you wait until the line has moved multiple points. Sometimes if we are talking about rain/wind, and the system is moving into an area late, perhaps on Saturday afternoon, I will make my play at that time. Weather is always tricky, but I usually have a good intuition for when to make a play, lay off, or make a reverse play.

• General value, public perception, team situation/motivation plays. These plays I study starting early in the week and than gauge public reaction. Usually I come to my decision prior to the weekend. These plays are based on a multitude of factors, statistical analysis and trend analysis I preform each week.
  

The plan this season will be to release my plays by Friday PM/Sat AM. Should there be a total or a weather play that I advise capitalizing on due to potential or actual line movement, I will release that information earlier in the week. I will then be back on Sunday AM with any additional plays or words of advice/caution.

So for those of you who have signed up for my e-mails, you can expect between 2 (typically) to 3 e-mails a week related to my plays. For those that did not sign up, I will still post this information both here and on the messageboards you may have met me at, but I guarantee it will not be prior to my e-mail or this website.

Finally, a word of advice. I am not a perfect handicapper. No one is. Although I started out 7-1 for the season, and have had multiple great seasons, there is no guarantee that any particular weekend won't be a bad one. My entire intent for developing this site into what it is right now is because I am sick and tired of seeing terrible handicappers, famous from past laurels, lead both young and seasoned players astray. I see their records each and every week, and it makes me sad to see people paying big money for their plays. I'm talking well over $100 for 1 week of plays that they end up hitting well below 50% in. Is that a sharp investment? And it's not just 1 bad week, it's like that for 13 of the 17 weeks of the year.

So while I won't claim to be the best in the business, I believe that my record speaks for itself, but at the same time, I realize that unless you made money following my plays in the past (which many have), you only care about the future. And I realize that, which is why I work as hard as I do to make winning plays. Both for myself and for those who follow me. However, above all, I encourage you to use SMART MONEY MANAGMENT. Set a budget, plan it out for the season, use a percentage of that budget on your plays each week. Never roll too large in any one weekend or any one game. It is a LONG season. I am in this for the long haul, not for short term. My goal is always to finish the season up money, and I have never fell short of that goal. Use my plays, if you so desire, but also interject your own logic and thought process. If you disagree on a play, please don't make it. There will be plenty out there that we will agree on.

So, onto Week 2. I hope everyone found success in Week 1 and good luck in Week 2 to all of us.

2008 Week 1

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****Sunday PM Update - 7-1 to start the season. 2-0 on Thursday night, 5-1 on Sunday, with winners including Carolina, Philly, Buffalo, Philly Under and the Dal/Cle Under. Last year I started the first 3 weeks 11-1 in my personal plays. I released more than usual this week but did not water down the quality of them. Looking forward to another GREAT season!****

****Sat Afternoon Update - I've posted 5 selections below. I will be back on Sunday pre-game with any additional plays. As per usual, I am more cautious in Week 1 than I am later in the season. So while I like these wagers, I advise using smart money management. In addition, remember that my system plays have not kicked in, and those are the plays that I have become known for.****


****Quick Friday AM update - We started out strong, if you read this post the past couple days, you would have seen my take on the NYG/Was game. See the bottom of this entry.

At any rate, NYG covered and the game went under. Nice way to start off the season!

Back to the original thread, which will continue to be updated today and tomorrow, so check back. And if you want to receive "official" plays, sign up and when those start (in another week) you will have them direct to your e-mail and receive them sooner than anyone else who reads this or follows me on the messageboards. Now, back to the original weekly thread****
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A few games I've researched and like the results....

Detroit
Buffalo
Carolina
Philly (w/ a lean towards the Under)
Dal/Cle Under

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

• Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.
• Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.
• With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

• When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.
  
• Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.
• Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under

• In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989.
• Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002.
  

A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under

• St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points.
  
• In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points.
• St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under.
  

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for Thursday's NYG/WAS game:

• The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

• Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):
• In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points
  

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

• In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points
• In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

If you think this line is too low to suck you in, what did you think when you saw the Week 1 lines of these defending SB champs:

01 Ravens
-9.5 vs. Chi W 17-6, ATS=W
02 Pats
+2.5 vs. Pit W 30-14, ATS=W
03 Bucs
+3 vs. Phi W 17-0, ATS=W
04 Pats
-3 vs. Ind W 27-24, ATS=W
05 Pats
-7.5 vs. Oak W 30-20, ATS=W
06 Steelers
-1 vs. Mia W 28-17, ATS=W
07 Colts
-6 vs NO W 41-10, ATS=W

Do any of those lines look fishy to you? Looking for action on the other side? The thing is, are you really that sharp to tell if a line is fishy or not? Because if you think NYG-3.5 bet to -4.5 is fishy, you may want to take a second look.

Preseason hype has surrounded the Giants in a negative way, from losing Osi and Strahan to other players lost from their SB team. Redskins march in w/ a new head coach, Jason Taylor, and ready to battle a division foe. To me, nothing fishy about the line whatsoever, based on present and past indications.