My System and System Results from Prior Seasons

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I want to better describe my system and my strategy this season:

First, the goal of my venture into developing a computer system was simply to develop another "tool" I could use to cap games. I developed it a few years back, and my results since then not only have been tremendous in my opinion, but have been remarkably consistent. I won't begin to say that "I cracked the code" or developed some Holy Grail for handicapping. But the results are 100% accurate and unaltered. For proof of last season's results, all you need to do is begin looking at the weekly threads I posted at a certain website which I mention HERE. As for this season's records, most of you can verify them yourselves as you've received the e-mails, but I have also posted all plays prior to kickoff on my site as well as on three different message boards. My system typically kicks in Week 4 and I chart it through the rest of the season. So all the records you see at the bottom of this thread that date back to 2006, those are from Week 4 through the playoffs.

What you need to realize, from looking at my system's records, is that a lot of plays are generated each season. I have several ATS systems and several Totals Systems, and then some permutations of these systems. Last season, I had a total of 578 plays from my system. In many cases they overlapped (in other words, the same pick was derived from multiple systems/permutations), but even disregarding that, you're looking at roughly 15+ plays a week. For example, while 30 plays would be generated by all systems for a certain week, perhaps only 15 would be unique side/total selections.

And what I realized last season, as I tried to get people to follow along on various message boards, was that there were simply too many plays to choose from. Guys certainly loved my top Overs system, which went 21-1 (95%). They followed that to a "T" and won on it. But the other systems simply produced too many plays on a weekly basis, and truthfully, I don't know how many guys played all of my plays. So even while they were hitting well, fewer people were making money off of them.

This offseason, I was approached by several people who had a specific desire:

Impressed by my system but unwilling to play 10+ games a week and hunt for plays on a message board, they wondered if I could e-mail out just a few plays a week that would hit at a high percentage.

I took their request seriously and as a personal challenge, and I have been working to accomplish this goal. Which brings me to how I am using my system this season:

I am using it as a "guide" to help find a "short list" of sides/total plays that contain a reasonable amount of value. Then, from there, I begin my rigorous weekly research. I research everything you can think of from various sources: Injuries, trends, weather, morale, motivation, public perception, and other factors that I think get overlooked by many when selecting their games for the week. Sometimes in my research I come up with plays that were not targeted by my system. In fact, this season so far I've released one game based on my research and my "gut instinct" that went against my system: Tennessee -1 over Baltimore in Week 5. My system showed Baltimore would win that game, but I believed based on my research and gut instinct that Tennessee would win. Indeed, it was a close game w/ Baltimore leading for a large part, but ultimately, Tennessee did win by 3 points. So while I want you to note my system's results at the bottom of this post, I want you to realize, this season I am doing a LOT MORE leg work on my own to narrow down plays and release them. I wish it was as easy as hitting "run" on my system. But there is not nearly as much fun in that.

Last season, in addition to my system plays, I also posted (on the same message board as I linked to above) personal selections, which were not derived from my system. These were my selections based on my research and capping. Last season, those plays went 58-36-3 (62%) and are fully verified at the other message board. As you can see, even my personal selections hit very well but I made about 100 plays, or about 5 a week including the playoffs. Yes, 62% is extremely good, but I figure that had I released only 3 or 4 plays a week instead of 5, I would have hit at an even higher percentage.

In addition, remember that my system does not typically kick in until Week 4 for projecting results. Last season, thru Week 3, my personal selections, not using my system at all, were 11-1 (92%). This season, thru Week 3 (and without my system), the plays I released went 12-3 (80%).

Also, as you will see at the bottom, in the 2005-2006 season, I participated in an online competition to pick sides and totals for the playoffs. Prior to the Super Bowl, I stood in First Place out of roughly 6,000 participants, with a record of 15-1 (94%). All of these selections were made on my own, without the use of my system. I knew the side I was going to play in the Super Bowl (Pittsburgh Steelers) and I knew what total I wanted to play (Under), but I made the side play and held off on the total play until gameday. This was because, by Sunday, I was able to see the selections of the 2nd and 3rd place players online (all plays are publicly viewable after they are selected). If I was wrong on both the side and total (Pittsburgh and the Under), I could have finished in 2nd place. However, if I selected the Pittsburgh and the Over, I would have locked up First place before the game even started. I decided it was the right move to not risk anything, so I took the Over, knowing I won First Place right there. The game ended Pittsburgh and the Under, putting me 1-1 for the day, 16-2 (89%) for the tournament and in First Place. No one has finished any of Wagerline's competitions w/ a winning percentage equal to or greater than mine (to date, since 1999, in any sport).

I am pointing all of this out to you so that you can realize one thing: While my system has been great for me, my own handicapping methods and instinct for plays (ignoring my system) has been great for the past several seasons which my plays are 100% documented online and not affiliated w/ my website at all.

I am a firm believer that everyone has their special talents and gifts, and for whatever reason, lately it has become clear to me that one of mine has been picking NFL games. I am not saying I will win 80% of my plays. That is frankly close to impossible if you are selecting 3-4 plays a week for an entire season. As you know, w/ standard juice, you need to hit approximately 52.4% to come out on top. I am defintely lucky to have my system, and combining it w/ my own insight and research certainly has become a winning combination. To answer several questions as to whether I do any other sports aside from the NFL: As I say on my homepage, I focus entirely on the NFL. I have not tried to spend time adapting my system to any other sport, nor have I handicapped any other sport. Not even NCAA football. Just NFL, it has my full focus, and I know that fact surely has played a role in my success.

Again, this season I have a vastly different and more complex challenge than in years past. My system plays are not being posted, they are being used only by myself as one of several tools I have to release typically between 3-4 plays a week that (hopefully) will hit at a high percentage. None of my plays are fancy team totals or prop bets or plays where I am buying multiple points and paying -130+ juice. (Once in a while I may advise buying a 1/2 point, but typically I leave that up to you.) I never have made these type of plays. These plays, while not being able to be wagered by many, also many times have stiff juice and so it is easier to have a good record if you are not playing standard spreads/totals. My system is based on WA lines and my plays that I have posted online since day one have all been standard side and total plays. With the exception of buying a 1/2 point on certain occasions, my recommendations are made w/ those same WA lines and the standard juice on those lines. My record will stand on its own at the end of the season, no fancy "stars" or "units" won, just my record of wins and losses.

My one note towards money management is this: I am not going to tell you how much to wager nor will I claim that I can keep up at my current pace. I would be very surprised if I finished the season at 81%. I am sharing all of my plays and information for you so you can try to hit at a better percentage than you usually do. I strongly recommend defining your bankroll, using a certain percentage of it on a weekly basis, and learning how to best buy or not buy points (when and where the value is). This is not a get rich quick scheme, it's full season of action. My goal has always been to be up at the end of each day, at the end of each week, and at the end of each season. So far if you have been following along, you are at 17-4 (81%). You can absorb a rough week or two because you are up ahead. I hope that does not happen, but let's face it, it is football and anything can happen. But I warn you because my goal is not for you to love my plays and analysis, though I do my best, it's to help you win money. I can only control the plays I release, I can't control anything else. Hopefully with my plays and your sharp money management, you will be very happy at the end of the season, which is truly my Ultimate Goal.


2007-2008 Results

My overs system was absolutely unbelievable. Hit 21-1 including playoffs. Highly unlikely it will do that well again, but myself and others made some solid money off of it.

Here are all my system plays:

Overs Sys #1: 21-1 (95%)
Overs Sys #2: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)
Wrong Team Favored: 16-17-2 (48%)

I also posted personal plays, which were in addition to system plays, and not derived out of any system, just my own capping. These plays went 58-36-3 (62%).

You will also notice I have more plays in 2007 than I did in 2006, which is because I added several new permutations and types of plays, such as a new totals system, a "top 5", and a "systems lean to the same side" play.

2006-2007 Results

Looking back at 2006, here are how my systems did that season:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%. So I was very proud, as I still am, to hold that distinction.