2008 System Update and Important Message

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I know it has been frustrating the last two weeks for those following my plays. I cannot apologize enough. My entire intent is to help people WIN money, not lose it. For that reason, I am strongly, STRONGLY considering releasing my entire system plays on Tuesdays and then releasing my personal selections on the weekend, as I do now.

I will not do this because people asked me to, but yes, I have heard you loud and clear. People who followed it last year and made money, want to see the plays again. The reason I will do it is because I feel badly you have lost on my personal selections the last two weeks, and want to help you make some money the next couple of weeks (hopefully).

Now, how did the system do this past week? Well, I e-mailed Fox Sports Radio's AM show and gave them system plays on Thursday. I told them two things just prior to the plays:

So there are two major factors in the system that the user should be aware of:

#1 - Injury to a key position since the last game, particularly to a key position like QB/RB
#2 - Double Digit Favorites could be ignored as plays completely

Then I gave them the plays:

ATS
Hou (-8.5), TB (-10.5), Was (-7), Chi (-3), Dal (-7), Cin (+10), Buf (+1.5), GB (+2.5), Car (-3)

Totals
Chi/Min Over (37.5 - no play if higher), Buf/SD Over (45), SF/NYG Over (45), Sea/TB Over 38

Now for the caveats. TB is a double digit fav, and both Dal and Cin have QB changes, so that could impact those two, but at least the change is known well in advance of game time.

So, how did we do?

If you took the advice and ignored the double digit favorite (TB) and both teams who had backup QBs (Dal/Cin), you would have gone 4-2 ATS (67%).

So, you may ask yourself, why did I release Cin and Dal as my personal plays when I knew they had backup QBs playing? My system anticipated Dal winning by 9. It was not the strongest play (from a value perspective) of the system plays for the week, but it was a play that had support from trend analysis and my research, so I kept it on the card. Did I think that replacing Romo w/ Johnson would move my predicted output of a win by 9 to a loss by 20? I could not have predicted that much of a drop off. I thought Johnson would provide a less risky option and allow the team to decrease their highs/lows. I still thought a 9 point victory was achievable. I believed that Jason Garrett would be able to use his weapons and running game to build a steady lead. I did not predict that kind of a loss.

The Cincy game was close at halftime (10-7) and close after the third quarter (17-10). Cincy's 4th quarter was miserable, after pinning Pit at their own 9 and down by only 7, they allowed Pit to score a TD in just 6 plays, then produced two 3 and outs, one of which was a fumble, which gave the Steelers the ball inside the Cincy 15 and then inside the Cincy 35. Both resulted in Steelers TDs. So yes, the play looked good at the half, looked winnable even at the start of the 4th, but then imploded. I thought even w/ Fitzpatrick the play of +10 was still a decent value play, and though I was wrong, it was closer than the final score indicated.

As for the totals: I did post my top totals Over play (Min/Chi O 37.5) prior to game time (Sun 11:31 AM EDT) in a message board thead HERE.

Right now my Top Overs system is 5-2 ATS (71%) on the season. It was from that system which came the close loss (Car/TB Over) last weekend. It is the same system that went a remarkable 21-1 ATS last season.

My other Overs System is 10-6, going 2-2 this past weekend (it also had the Chi/Min Over). Which puts it at 63% on the season.

System Plays which will be Posted:

1. All ATS plays, and remember, I categorically rule out DD favs and teams starting a backup QB.

2. All Totals plays, w/ designation if it is a "Top" play or not.

Those are the guidelines for plays that will be posted.

The duty that gets placed on your shoulders now that I am doing this:

1. You will be able to spend 5 days of line shopping to get the best line you can.

2. You will have to determine which plays you will want to make. Again, the system has generated 7-9 ATS plays a week so far. I will share all plays that fall under the above parameters, but there will be many more than just a couple of plays a week.

3. You will have to factor in injuries and other research into the plays.

4. I am simply sharing my system that I created. I don't take responsibility for bad weeks or losing plays.

System Results YTD

Using the above parameters (no DD favs, no back-up QBs), here are the ATS system results so far for 2008:

Week 4:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
KC (W), Atl (L), Ten (W), Oak (L), Was (W), Chi (W), Buf (W), TB (W), Bal (W)

Totals 4-1 (80%)
Cle/Cin Under (W) - note I actually recommended this via e-mail but did not count it towards my record, Min/Ten Over (L), GB/TB Over (W), SD/Oak Over (W), Phi/Chi Over (W)

Week 5:

ATS 6-2-1 (75%)
Hou (L), Bal (Push), Mia (W), Chi (W), NYG (W), SF (L), Cin (W), Car (W), Ari (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Ten/Bal Over (L), Sea/NYG Over (W), TB/Den Over (L), Buf/Ari Over (W)

Week 6:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
Mia (W), Bal (L), GB (W), Phi (W), Atl (W), Ari (W), NYJ (W), TB (W), Den (L)

Totals 2-1 (67%)
Car/TB Over (L), Phi/SF Over (W), Dal/Ari Over (W)

Week 7:

ATS 4-2 (67%)
Hou (L), Chi (W), Was (L), Buf (W), GB (W), Car (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Chi/Min Over (W), Buf/SD Over (L), SF/NYG Over (W), Sea/TB Over (L)


Summary Weeks 4-7

ATS 24-8-1 (75%)
Top Totals 5-2 (71%)
Overs System #2 Totals 10-6 (63%)


Now, a few things I want to mention:

1. I know Czaban and perhaps others do no believe that a computer system can pick games at such a high percentage. It has done so thus far and at this point, I can't worry about what people think of it. My goal for running this site is not to make everyone a believer, I can't help the fact that although my system plays were posted all of last season, and although my personal plays this season have been posted every single week this season, people do not believe that my record is achievable. My goal for this site it is to help people make money. If sharing my system will help do that, then that's what I will do.

2. I know Brandon Lang does not think I would share these plays publicly. Well, I did it last season, publicly on Tuesdays of each week for the upcoming games, and my results are HERE and anyone can view those threads to verify the accuracy HERE. I also know that Brandon Lang said I should "validate" my system, but that is exactly what I did all of last season, and the results don't lie. I validated it last Week 7 w/ FSR (4-2 ATS if you don't play DD favs or teams w/ backup QBs), and now I will validate it with you guys for a couple of weeks. I know it works, and it has worked for several years. It is not a 100% system. But it has been hitting over 60% w/ regularity. (It will be just my luck that it has its first losing week of 2008 in Week 8, but I can't control everything. I can only do what I've been doing.)

3. I will still release my personal plays, and I will do it on Saturday AM and Sunday AM, just like I am doing now.

4. This is a WARNING: some plays that I may release as personal plays will not be system plays. Sometimes I run my system and instantly see a game that I would definitely not play. Such as Baltimore in Indy Week 6. And, as you know, in Week 5 my system said Bal +3 over Ten (line available on Tuesday), but I played Ten -1 (line available Friday-Sunday) and won w/ Ten.

5. Injuries are a very difficult thing for anyone's system to handle. It involves adding a human input into how much you downgrade a team or a player. Therefore, if a team has a couple O-Line injuries, how much do you downgrade them? That is something that is difficult to measure. Therefore, be aware of injuries when making a play.

It is up to you what you want to do w/ my system plays. If I decide to follow through and post these system plays, I will not send them out via e-mail. I will simply post them on my website on Tuesday. If you want to play any of them, or wait, it is up to you. If you want to wait until Saturday to see what I personally recommend, that is fine also. Again, sometimes my personal recommendations may not come from a system play. I will still try to recommend just a few heavy hitters. It hasn't worked out the past two weekends, but I am sure we will be having better success soon.