Not only was the game a bad play, but it was also a play that came not from my system, but from my desire to release a play on Monday for the various people who e-mailed me and questioned why I would not release a MNF play.
I take full responsibility for the bad play and I should have stopped when I typed in my writeup:
"This is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover."
Those three sentences should have scared me away from releasing this play. My system found no value in a play. My reasons for releasing the play stemmed from a few e-mails I received from a variety of people who essentially really wanted my input on the game, really wanted to receive all of my system plays, and really wanted me to "help them out" and play more games, particularly, the game last night. I did a disservice by releasing a play that I had only researched for approximately 2.5 hours on Monday afternoon.
I was talking to a friend in London around 2pm EST about the fact I was not releasing a play for MNF. I told him my system found no value in the game, and I was not going to force anything. I am sure he is quite shocked to find that I did in fact release a play, and what a poor play that it was.
I realize that many people signed up for plays this past weekend, based on hearing about my show on Fox Sports Radio w/ Steve Czaban as well as (from what some people told me but I have not yet confirmed) on the Dan Patrick radio show. And most likely several of the individuals who signed up were expecting to see a MNF release and were wondering where it was and were asking for my help.
I sincerely appreciate all of the exposure and interest but I'm not doing my job if I put out plays that lose you money. My entire desire for sharing my plays is to let you guys share in the profits. For that reason, I must stick to the very few plays a week that I release that have value.
So just so everyone is clear:
- There may be some weeks that I truly only do have only 1 play that has substantial value. If that is the case, please do not demand for me to release multiple plays. (Someone was upset that I "might only release the totals play" which I mentioned in my Saturday e-mail.) Yes, there are times only one play will be released, and I am sorry if you would like to see 5 plays, but I will only release those that have high enough value.
- Many cases I will not release a MNF game. From now on, by 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific, I will post on my site if I am going to have a play for MNF or not. You won't have to wonder.
- When I release multiple plays, unless I specifically mention that one play is strong and another is not, I like all plays the same value.
I am not a standard service you may be used to, who has an opinion and play on every single day of the season, and on 5 games on Sunday. I look for targeted games, I pick my spots, and I pass on 95% of the games. I try to pick those 5% that I feel have an extreme edge and let Vegas make money on the rest.
So you know, the methodology I take when releasing plays is:
- Run my system and view the output
- Create a shortlist of those games
- Research those games which are system plays, narrow the shortlist down to the best bets
- Double check, and then research games not selected to see if there is any significant edge in any game the system did not catch or recommend
- This process typically starts first thing Tuesday AM and runs all the way through until Sunday AM. Not 12 hrs per day, but several hours, each and every day. I take my system and my releases very seriously, which is part of the reason I am so disappointed in myself for releasing the non-system play on MNF.
The only positive is that I am still hitting 75% even after absorbing a terrible weekend. The other positive is that we have a clear plan moving forward. Despite offers for otherwise, I am sticking to my original plan to only release certain plays which have the most value for the week. I cannot predict how many that will be on a weekly basis. The average has been 3 thus far.
Prior to this week, I was 17-4 (81%). I cannot promise future results, but what I can promise is Week 7 and onward will have the same diligence and attention to detail that all prior plays have had, save the mistake last night.
11 comments:
I happen to be one of the people that signed up for your e-mails and I'd to just say a few things in regards to your site and also the people that use it. First of all, I am by no means a full-time gambler; the reason I do it is to make watching the game and making it a little more exciting to do so. ANYONE who plans on making a living betting on ANYTHING is in for a very rude awakening. As far as I'm concerned the only SURE BET in your life is that it will end some day. That being said...I appreciate all the work that is done here to help us as bettors. I'm sure a tremendous amount of work is required to research these games, and even with that you cannot account for the "human factor" involved in each. For example, I played the over 36.5 in the Tampa-Carolina game...which ended up losing. But if you saw the game one thing sticks out like a sore thumb. Carolina was in the red zone twice near the goal line with very good chances to score touchdowns that would have put that game WAY over 36.5...But Jake Delhomme turned the ball over twice. No system in the world could account for that...it just happens. By the same token, even though the Eagles DID cover they shouldn't have. The Niners clearly don't know how to finish a game off...but a win is a win is a win as they say. Insofar as the MNF play...home dogs on Monday nights are NOTORIOUS for covering games...I think the percentile will bear this out if checked into. All I want to say is this, thanks for your picks...it is up to us to use smart money management and common sense when we make our plays...and for God's sake people, stop trying to force this guy to release picks he doesn't feel comfortable releasing because YOU are tring to chase your losses from the weekend...BET SMART!!!! Bob Merc-The Shift
I agree with this post. It's a crapshoot for sure.
Nice post bob...puff - keep up the great work...i signed up for the e mails and appreciate your insights. Played the TB game (should have been a winner), and Philly (should have been a loser, but ended up a winner).
Was on with you last week with the 3-0 sweep. My buddy's were all laughing at me with the Miami pick, and it was I who was laughing to the bank!!!
I digress...keep up the solid picks! Thank you.
Agree with the other posters here. Anyone who has been following you since Week 1 could tell you were not even close to 100% behind NYG and should have stayed away vs. chasing Sunday's money.
Lucky for me, I had a busy weekend and didn't place any wagers so was able to avoid this minor speed bump of a week.
But I'll be back and backing you without hesitation next weekend.
Oh, and kudos for gaining a bit of national notoriety.
I disagree with many of the posts regarding human error and believe it is factored in. Vegas runs a similar statistical system to determine their lines, which includes turnovers of any type, 4th down attempts and most importantly field position. Field position is the X factor that is the hardest to dictate, not human error, every variable of the game impacts field position. Most systems can predict a teams average starting field position, but how average is it?? How many of us have watched a game where one team always seems to start around the 50, that would greatly effect their average starting field position for the following week and in turn increase their potential to score more points. The following week comes and now they start around the 38 every time, huge difference, definitely decreases a teams ability score doesn't it?? I think this site does a great job, crack the code of field position and now we all collect!!
Good Luck Boys!
Keep up the good work.
You rock! Stick to your guns, man.. Don't let the compulsive types talk you into anything. this is a science and if people can't deal with playing only one game a week then they shouldn't be on here. Keep keeping on my friend.
No complaints here either. I appreciate all the work you do and the insight you provide. As a longtime follower from the message board years, I could tell just by the tone of your MNF e-mail that you didn't believe in it. Considering I also didn't like the NYG play, I also I stayed away.
Don't let anyone force you to release picks - only the least serious gamblers are itching to get "every pick" - only the more seasoned and experienced people know what you are doing here and, personally, i'd be with you even if you didnt have ANY picks if you didnt think they were strong enough.
Keep with it, even after that weekend i'm still 100 percent confident that you are going to win me a bunch of money, and for that I thank you.
I use this blog for a second opinion. I select a bunch of plays each week for my card and then wait until I get the email to see what is written here. If what is written does not correspond with mine, I don't play on that game. I have been lucky that most of my plays have been in sync so thank you for being my guardian angel on weekends! I really appreciate all the time and effort you put in and if anyone feels otherwise then maybe they should go and do their own research. Great stuff.
Thanks for all of your hard work. I heard about you on Czaban and am not going to delete your site based on one week. I think you will bounce back nicely soon based on your track record of success.
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