My Super Bowl Analysis

After writing this, I realize it is much too long than it needs to be. However, I am a junkie and love running numbers and scenarios. Since I already typed it all up, I might as well post it. So there’s your warning.

Section 1: Background
Section 2: The Game
Section 3: Scenario 1 Stats
Section 4: Scenario 2 Stats
Section 5: Scenario 3 Stats
Section 6: Passer Rating
Section 7: Special Teams
Section 8: Red Zone
Section 9: O-Line/D-Line
Section 10: Conclusions
Section 11: My Pick

Section 1:

Background:

I have spent some quality time looking at all aspects of this game, and I will present the numbers to you as always: Unbiased and untarnished. My comparisons are the most fair that you will find, and you can read below to find out why.

To the guys who think stats don't matter in this big game, that think it is such a big game that you just have to make a "gut call", I say: Finding edges in statistical categories leads to finding strengths and weaknesses in a team. Teams do this themselves when preparing for an opponent. We can do this to find potential avenues with which to predict certain scenarios in the game. Predicting certain scenarios, certain schemes, where team A will try to attack team B, and so forth is exactly what each team is doing as we speak. Obviously stats are only a portion of capping the game. You do have to rely on your gut instincts, but sometimes they may lead you down the wrong path. You may rely on some historical data, you may rely on trends. I am not here to debate the merits of any system or method of capping. But I am defending the use of stats, whether it's the Super Bowl or a week 9 game, comparing stats is never going to be a bad thing.

Trying to get everything you need to know from NFL Live or ESPN's Sportscenter is going to lead you in the wrong direction. I feel you need to look at the numbers yourself and figure out the deeper meaning. I listen to injury reports and some info from the media, but what you should understand over at ESPN is that they have a room of "stat boys" who dig up the stats, and pass them onto the talking heads on TV. These talking heads just latch onto a few key stats and regurgitate them for 2 weeks every chance they get, to make dramatic opinions and keep you tuned in. Many times, they don't give you the complete picture, just the glamorous part or the portion that they believe will matter the most to the game.

What we really want is the complete, unbiased story, and then we can make up our own mind. That's what I try to do anyways.

The Game:

The Super Bowl is always an interesting game to cap. There are many things that play into this game that make it unique. I won't get into everything, as I am sure you are aware of many of the difficulties in attempting to predict the outcome in a game like this. But a few things include the 2 week prep time for both teams/coaches, every possession being more critical, every mistake is magnified, and the tendency for teams who are down to perhaps get more aggressive earlier than they normally would (this depends on coaching but is more likely to happen than in any other game). I realize that a few stats may be more important than others. Of course, of prime importance in any football game, let alone the Super Bowl, is who wins the turnover battle. We will get into that in a little while.

Section 2:

Not a Home Game, but Not a Road Game (background on why I ran my numbers the way I did):

Another thing is this game is played at a neutral site. There has been much debate: Is it a road game? Who is the "home team"? The answer from a gambling perspective is: Both teams are playing in a "laid-back" road environment. It is not hostile. While there are many fans from the other team, there also may be an even amount of your own fans there. It is well known that the game is a very commercial game, and many of the people there are not die hard fans from one team or another. You have your corporate people who are there to network and watch a game, and then you have neutral fans who want to see a good SB, and won't be rooting like they would be at a home game for their favorite team. And then you have your die hard fans from either the Bears or Colts, who will be making as much noise as they can. So while it won't be a home dome game for the Colts who have dead silence to work with on offense, it also won't be like walking into NE or Ten and having a stadium full of rabid fans from the other team. Same for Chi, they won't have the home support, the comforts of their cold climate and boisterous fans. So it's not a home game, but it's not really a road game in a hostile environment, such as in Min or in GB.

When capping games, lately I have been looking primarily at how teams have performed in their L3 or L4 games either home or away, depending on whether they were host or visitor. But I disagree with using only the L3 road numbers for both teams in the Super Bowl. For that reason, I have spent some time adjusting a program to give me flexibility to decide which parameters are most important.

I have my stats divided into 4 categories:

Season Home Games
Season Road Games
L3 Road Games (during the season)
Playoff Games

I am able to add any weight to the 4 categories I choose, so long as they add to 100%. So whether I want the playoff games count for 50% of the stats or 35% or any % I choose, I can.

I have chosen to look at the stats this way because how a team did in a home game in week 12 should play into their season stats, but not nearly as much as how they did at home week 1, or how they did in the playoffs.

Important

Also, the way that I like to cap games is not to just look at PPG scored for the home team and compare it to PPG scored for the road team. To me, that is pretty meaningless. The missing piece to that puzzle is who their opponents have been. If the Colts are putting up 20 PPG on the Pats, Ravens and Jags, 3 top teams in PPG allowed, while the Bears are putting up 30 PPG on the Lions, Titans and Cardinals 3 of the worst teams in PPG allowed, you can't compare the 20 to the 30.

You need to compare Indy's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Indy's opposition. Once you have that number, you can compare it to Chicago's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Chicago's opposition.

I have seen many "Super Bowl systems" that rank several statistical categories of the Colts and Bears, such as PPG, total yards allowed, rushing YPR, and others, and then say that the Bears will win the game because they have higher scores in 7 of the 10 categories compared to the Bears. To me, that is fine, but not ideal. As I said, if their opposition was different, you are no longer comparing apples to apples. To do this, you can't even just compare the overall "Strength of Schedule" of their opposition, you have to compare PPG allowed (for instance) on average for the Colts opposition, and then see how many PPG the Colts scored against them on average, to see if the Colts performed average, above average, or below average in PPG. And then you have to do the same w/ the Bears, and then you can finally compare the two teams to see how the performed in PPG vs. their opposition.

I know I am discussing stats in this thread. That is what I like to do. I also know that there are many who say "throw stats out the window for the Super Bowl, Colts roll". Or "Bears cover - no brainer". That is fine if you want to use your gambling judgment. Stats only play a part of my overall capping. But I feel they should be used and studied to determine if an obvious or subtle advantage is found. So while I use my gambling judgment as well when making my final play, I also like to look at what the stats are showing.

Now that I have introduced the background on how and why I do my calculations, I will begin to show you what I have come up with. As I said, I can determine what part of the season I want to weigh most in my calculations. So I am using several combinations. If you would like to see one that is not listed, feel free to post and ask me to show it. Just make sure it adds up to 100% or it would not make sense. Here are the 3 I am going with right now:

Scenario 1 (a 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late)

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 30% (of which 15 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 50%

Scenario 2 (Not as much emphasis on the playoffs, but still over double that of a regular season game. More of a focus on road games over the season)

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 45% (of which 17 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 35%

Scenario 3 (Extremely playoff heavy, and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly road games)

Season Home Games: 5%
Season Road Games: 10% (of which 5% is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 85%

Section 3:

A look into Scenario 1

A 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 30% (of which 15 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 50%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

(Also, these numbers are obviously percentages of stats from multiple games, so I rounded to the nearest decimal. Which is why you may see the Colts have an advantage by 0 yards. But the yardage really is 0.04 yards, and it rounds to 0. So that is essentially no advantage, but just explaining why it may show up.)

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 30 vs. Opp Avg 21.1, Indianapolis Colts: 25.1 vs. Opp Avg 18.3
Advantage: Bears by 2.1

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.6 vs. Opp Avg 17.7, Indianapolis Colts: 23.9 vs. Opp Avg 17.7
Advantage: Colts by 4.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 34.5 vs. Opp Avg 36.8, Indianapolis Colts: 52.3 vs. Opp Avg 36.8
Advantage: Colts by 17.9

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.5, Indianapolis Colts: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.5

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 52.2 vs. Opp Avg 59.2, Indianapolis Colts: 63.8 vs. Opp Avg 59.4
Advantage: Colts by 11.4

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.2 vs. Opp Avg 11.7, Indianapolis Colts: 11.2 vs. Opp Avg 11.5
Advantage: Bears by 0.8

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.9 vs. Opp Avg 0.9, Indianapolis Colts: 1.3 vs. Opp Avg 1.2
Advantage: Bears by 0.2

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 12.2 vs. Opp Avg 16.1, Indianapolis Colts: 7.7 vs. Opp Avg 15.6
Advantage: Colts by 4

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 39.7 vs. Opp Avg 51.1, Indianapolis Colts: 37.9 vs. Opp Avg 48
Advantage: Bears by 1.4

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 33.2 vs. Opp Avg 29.7, Indianapolis Colts: 31.6 vs. Opp Avg 29.6
Advantage: Bears by 1.5

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 6 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards
Bears: 5 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 18.4 vs. Opp Avg 21.7, Indianapolis Colts: 20.2 vs. Opp Avg 21.4
Advantage: Bears by 2.1

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 17.1 vs. Opp Avg 19.2, Indianapolis Colts: 16.4 vs. Opp Avg 18.6
Advantage: Colts by 0

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 33.1 vs. Opp Avg 38.4, Indianapolis Colts: 34.6 vs. Opp Avg 39.3
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 3.9, Indianapolis Colts: 5 vs. Opp Avg 4.1
Advantage: Bears by 0.7

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 56.6 vs. Opp Avg 59.2, Indianapolis Colts: 62.2 vs. Opp Avg 61
Advantage: Bears by 3.8

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 10.8 vs. Opp Avg 11.6, Indianapolis Colts: 9.4 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 1

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1.1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.4 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.7 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 21.2 vs. Opp Avg 15.5, Indianapolis Colts: 11.2 vs. Opp Avg 12.1
Advantage: Bears by 6.5

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 52.3 vs. Opp Avg 46.8, Indianapolis Colts: 38.1 vs. Opp Avg 49.6
Advantage: Colts by 17

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 28.3 vs. Opp Avg 30.4, Indianapolis Colts: 28.4 vs. Opp Avg 30.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 5 - First Downs/Game, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)
Bears: 6 - PPG Allowed, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards

Section 4:

A look into Scenario 2

Not as much emphasis on the playoffs as scenario 1, but still over double that of a regular season game. More of a focus on road games over the season

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 45% (of which 17 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 35%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 28.8 vs. Opp Avg 21.2, Indianapolis Colts: 24.7 vs. Opp Avg 19
Advantage: Bears by 1.8

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.4 vs. Opp Avg 18, Indianapolis Colts: 23.5 vs. Opp Avg 18
Advantage: Colts by 4.1

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 35.6 vs. Opp Avg 37.4, Indianapolis Colts: 54 vs. Opp Avg 37.6
Advantage: Colts by 18.2

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.4, Indianapolis Colts: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 52.7 vs. Opp Avg 59.5, Indianapolis Colts: 63.9 vs. Opp Avg 59.7
Advantage: Colts by 11

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.1 vs. Opp Avg 11.7, Indianapolis Colts: 11.6 vs. Opp Avg 11.4
Advantage: Bears by 0.3

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1 vs. Opp Avg 0.9, Indianapolis Colts: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1.1
Advantage: Colts by 0

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 11 vs. Opp Avg 15.7, Indianapolis Colts: 7.2 vs. Opp Avg 14.7
Advantage: Colts by 2.8

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 45 vs. Opp Avg 51.3, Indianapolis Colts: 40.7 vs. Opp Avg 48.8
Advantage: Colts by 1.8

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 32.4 vs. Opp Avg 29.8, Indianapolis Colts: 30.7 vs. Opp Avg 29.8
Advantage: Bears by 1.7

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 8 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Interceptions/Game, Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards, Penalty Yards
Bears: 3 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 17.9 vs. Opp Avg 21.3, Indianapolis Colts: 21.9 vs. Opp Avg 21.3
Advantage: Bears by 3.9

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 17.3 vs. Opp Avg 19.1, Indianapolis Colts: 18 vs. Opp Avg 18.4
Advantage: Bears by 1.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 32.2 vs. Opp Avg 38, Indianapolis Colts: 39 vs. Opp Avg 38.9
Advantage: Bears by 5.9

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 3.9, Indianapolis Colts: 5.2 vs. Opp Avg 4.2
Advantage: Bears by 1

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 57.3 vs. Opp Avg 59, Indianapolis Colts: 62.8 vs. Opp Avg 60.7
Advantage: Bears by 3.8

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 10.7 vs. Opp Avg 11.4, Indianapolis Colts: 9.8 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 0.6

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 0.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.4 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.7 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 19.5 vs. Opp Avg 15.9, Indianapolis Colts: 9.7 vs. Opp Avg 12.3
Advantage: Bears by 6.2

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 59 vs. Opp Avg 48.8, Indianapolis Colts: 38.8 vs. Opp Avg 49.3
Advantage: Colts by 20.8

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 28.8 vs. Opp Avg 30.4, Indianapolis Colts: 29.3 vs. Opp Avg 30.5
Advantage: Bears by 0.4

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 3 - YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards
Bears: 8 - PPG Allowed, First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards, Time of Possession (min)


Section 5:

A look into Scenario 3

Extremely playoff heavy, and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly home games

Season Home Games: 5%
Season Road Games: 10% (of which 5% is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 85%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 32.1 vs. Opp Avg 20.8, Indianapolis Colts: 25.2 vs. Opp Avg 16.5
Advantage: Bears by 2.5

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.5 vs. Opp Avg 17.1, Indianapolis Colts: 24.6 vs. Opp Avg 17
Advantage: Colts by 5.2

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 31.8 vs. Opp Avg 35.5, Indianapolis Colts: 49.2 vs. Opp Avg 34.8
Advantage: Colts by 18.2

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.7, Indianapolis Colts: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 3.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.8

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 50.6 vs. Opp Avg 58.4, Indianapolis Colts: 63.2 vs. Opp Avg 58.4
Advantage: Colts by 12.5

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.3 vs. Opp Avg 11.8, Indianapolis Colts: 10.4 vs. Opp Avg 11.6
Advantage: Bears by 1.7

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 1.8 vs. Opp Avg 1.3
Advantage: Bears by 0.7

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.5 vs. Opp Avg 0.7, Indianapolis Colts: 0.1 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Colts by 0.5

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 14.5 vs. Opp Avg 17, Indianapolis Colts: 10 vs. Opp Avg 17.6
Advantage: Colts by 5.1

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 27.6 vs. Opp Avg 50.9, Indianapolis Colts: 32.7 vs. Opp Avg 46.6
Advantage: Bears by 9.4

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 34.7 vs. Opp Avg 29.3, Indianapolis Colts: 33.2 vs. Opp Avg 28.9
Advantage: Bears by 1.1

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 6 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards
Bears: 5 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 18.8 vs. Opp Avg 22.9, Indianapolis Colts: 17.4 vs. Opp Avg 22
Advantage: Colts by 0.6

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 16.7 vs. Opp Avg 19.8, Indianapolis Colts: 13.6 vs. Opp Avg 19
Advantage: Colts by 2.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 35 vs. Opp Avg 40, Indianapolis Colts: 26.1 vs. Opp Avg 40.8
Advantage: Colts by 9.8

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4.2 vs. Opp Avg 3.8, Indianapolis Colts: 4.1 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 55.5 vs. Opp Avg 60.4, Indianapolis Colts: 61.3 vs. Opp Avg 61.7
Advantage: Bears by 4.6

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 11 vs. Opp Avg 11.9, Indianapolis Colts: 9 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 1.3

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1 vs. Opp Avg 1.1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Colts by 0.8

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.5 vs. Opp Avg 0.7, Indianapolis Colts: 0.9 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 24.2 vs. Opp Avg 14.2, Indianapolis Colts: 13.3 vs. Opp Avg 11.4
Advantage: Bears by 8.1

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 38 vs. Opp Avg 42.5, Indianapolis Colts: 38.3 vs. Opp Avg 49.8
Advantage: Colts by 7

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 27.5 vs. Opp Avg 30.7, Indianapolis Colts: 26.7 vs. Opp Avg 31.4
Advantage: Colts by 1.3

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 8 - PPG Allowed, First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min),
Bears: 3 - Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards,

Section 6:

Passer Ratings (Playoffs & Reg Season)

Another key to Super Bowl performance is the play of your QB. It is usually essential to have an average if not solid performance from your QB to win this game. Peyton this season has been pretty remarkable.

To those who don't appreciate QB rating, it really is more of a useful tool than you may think. Using 5 inputs (attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Ints) it calculates Comp %, Yards/Attempt, TD% and Int%, and then weights them and combines them into one easy to use and compare number. Most everything you would want to know about the guy in one stat.

And the reason it is so important I will present to you here:

I was hoping to find this gathered somewhere online already. As I couldn't find it, I ran all the calculations myself, so here it is:

Of the 40 Super Bowl winners, 38 of winning teams had a higher QB rating in the Super Bowl than their opponent's QB rating! That is 95%. The only exceptions were actually last year, and in 1998.







QB performance (rating) is huge in the SB, and has an extreme correlation to SB success. So the question is, which QB do you think will have a better rating in the SB? Well, past success does not guarantee future success, but here are the numbers from the regular season.

Manning

When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 119.1 is better than on first or second down.
And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.

Grossman on the other hand:

When the Bears are losing, his rating of 49.6 is much lower than when they are tied, or when they have the lead (102.9)
In the 2nd half, his rating of 67.2 is lower than his 1st half rating.
On 3rd down, his rating of 66.4 is lower than on first or second down.
And his WORST situational rating is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 47.3.

So lets look at how these guys did away from home:

Petyon vs. Rex

On the road: 93 vs. 67
On grass: 100.2 vs. 73.2
Peyton against NFC vs. Rex against AFC: 93.9 vs. 55.0
In wins: 106.7 vs. 86.8
In losses: 84.3 vs. 19.3

So what can we conclude about regular season performance? Well, the Rex was good when he was at home, when his team had the lead, and he was in manageable down & distances. Whether it's when his team is losing, when it is 3rd down, or when it is in the 2nd half, Rex just wasn't that good.

Peyton on the other hand, was incredible on 3rd downs, when his team was losing, or in the 2nd half. All this talk about the Colts on grass - Peyton had a 100 rating on grass, and even in losses, his rating still was an 84.

Now, moving onto the playoffs:

Peyton's 3 games: 71.9 vs KC, 39.6 @ Bal, 79.1 vs NE
Rex's 2 games: 76.9 vs. Sea, 73.2 vs NO

It is hard to really compare these to one another. For instance, the 39.6 jumps out at you for Peyton. We know that was a defensive, turnover filled FG battle, it isn't really surprising his numbers were bad. Even less so when you see that Baltimore was #1 in the league at opposing QB rating. The Best. Guess who was #2? That's right, New England. Peyton faced 2 of the toughest teams for QBs to face, and he faced them the last 2 weeks of the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, he now has to face Chicago, which is #3....

Rex on the other hand has been able to skate bye these past 2 games. First was Seattle with their 26th ranked D against QBs, then NO at #23. Indy isn't top 10, but they are #15, tougher than Rex has faced since (if we throw out GB, who was #8) Min on Dec 3rd, who was #5. Rex had a rating of 1.3, but Chi still won.

While Indy is #15, allowing a rating of 80.4 on the year, during the playoffs they forced Trent Green (74.1 during the season) to a 48.4, Steve McNair (82.4 during the season) to a 49.9, and Tom Brady (87.9 during the season) to a 79.5. So Indy has been stepping up a bit on not only run D but defending QBs during this postseason.

Now as you know, QB rating is not an indicator of Ws or Ls. I am not making a case that it is. I am stating that QB play is usually important in the Super Bowl, and showing you the numbers.

But strictly looking at the QB and his rating, it is impossible to discount the solid performance of Peyton this year, when it matters most, just as it is obvious that Rex, when it matters most, has come up short.


Section 7:

Special teams

We all know special teams have the impact to change the game in a single snap. And we know Chi has been great, but just how great have they been, and how bad has Indy been?

Is the spoon feeding ESPN has been giving us about the great Bears return game the truth, or a myth? And if true, how could it impact the game?

Chicago's Return O vs. Indy's return D

On the season, Chi ranked #1 in return TDs, #2 in punt return average, and #8 in kickoff return average.

Indy's ST D ranked #31 in return TDs allowed, #31 in punt return avg allowed, and #30 in kickoff return average allowed.

Those numbers are diametrically opposed, and extremely eye-opening.

Just for fun, let's see the flip side: Indy's return O against Chicago's return D

With only 1 return TD on the year, Indy ranked 13th in punt return average and #7 in kickoff return average (actually ahead of Chicago).

Chicago's ST ranked #23 in punt return average and #5 in kickoff return average allowed.

So if we matchup their numbers, Chi would have an advantage in both Kickoff return D and both Kickoff return O and punt return O. The only advantage for Indy would be in punt return O, where Chi allows more than Indy gains. This advantage for Chi is more lopsided than just these numbers, because when you look at the comparison, Chi is already #2 in punt return O, and Indy allows even more yards per punt return than Chi gains on average. Same thing with kickoff returns.

Now how have the regular season numbers translated into the playoffs?

The results are not good, but they are not good for both teams:

Indy has allowed 12.8 yards per punt return, which is just a hair better than the 13.1 in the regular season, but is far and away the worst of any team in the playoffs.

However Chicago has only averaged 5.8 yards per punt return, which is 3rd worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs, and well below the 12.1 ypr they averaged during the season.

Meanwhile, Indy has allowed 24.3 yards per kickoff return, which is 4th worst in the playoffs but is slightly better than what they averaged during the season.

Chicago is dead last in kickoff returns, only averaging 16 yards per return, which is well below the 23.3 they averaged on the season.

So when Indy is kicking:

They are doing slightly better than they did on the regular season, but still not great by any means. Chicago, on the other hand, is performing much, much worse than they did during the regular season in returning kicks.

I am looking at average numbers here, so the # of opportunities does not matter. Some have suggested Indy will kick away from Hester. Perhaps. Let's see what Seattle and NO did:

During the season, Chicago averaged just over 3.1 punt returns per game, and 3.7 kickoff returns per game.

Against Seattle they had 3 punt returns and 4 kickoff returns, and against NO they had 2 punt returns and 3 kickoff returns. So about average in the Seattle game, and less than average in the NO game.

I don't know if Indy will kick away from Hester or not. But he hasn't broken one yet, but then again, Seattle and NO have better return D than Indy.

Switch the fields, and now Chicago is kicking in the playoffs:

Chicago is allowing 22.9 yards per kickoff return, worse than the 20.8 they allowed during the regular season. But Chicago is allowing a mere 2.4 yards per punt return, much better than during the season.

Indy has returned their kickoffs for an avg of 19.1 yards, much worse than the 23.6 they did on the season, and returning punts for 11.2 yards, which actually is better than the 9 yards they averaged on the season.

So when Chicago is kicking:

Chicago has been poor on kickoffs, as has Indy. But on punts, Chi has been great, and so has Indy.

What does all of this ST discussion mean:

1. Chicago is explosive in their offensive return game, one of the best, and Indy's return D is terrible. However, on the playoffs, Indy’s return D has played a bit better and Chi’s return O really hasn't been doing that well in their return game. Some may have to do w/ facing the #6 and #17 ranked teams in punt returns.

2. Indy’s return O is above average in their return game, and Chicago is about average. Both Indy's return O and Chicago's return D have been doing better at punt returns than kickoff returns, so no distinct edge here.

3. If Indy can use some of the 2 weeks to improve the special teams, it will significantly improve their chances of winning.

Starting Field Position

The key to this return game, if TDs are not scored, is average starting field position. That is what the kicking game provides (FGs aside).

The Bears, out of 191 drives, started on average at their 32.2 yard line. That is good for #5 in the NFL. The Colts ST defense allowed the other team to start on its own 30.8 yard line, which is #23 in the NFL. So you have one really above average O (Chi) against a slightly below avg D (Ind).

The Colts, out of 148 drives, started on average at their own 28.7 yard line. That is #27 in the NFL. The Bears ST defense allowed the other team to start on its own 29.4 yard line, which is #11 in the NFL. So you have a really below average O (Ind) against a slightly above avg D (Chi).

While you may not think a 3 yard advantage is much of an advantage, remember - that is just the AVERAGE. They key when comparing one team to the other for this statistic is to realize the Bears are great at getting their offense quality starting field position, and the Colts are bad at allowing good starting field position, and are bad at getting their own offense quality starting field position.

So while return numbers are good, starting field position is even better at determining an advantage. It is clear the Bears have a very good advantage here, and the myths that the Bears return game is great is not only true, it has resulted in significant starting field position advantage.


Section 8

Red Zone

The red zone undoubtedly will play a key role in this Super Bowl, as it does in most Super Bowls. Let's look at both regular season and postseason numbers:

Regular Season: Indy O vs. Chi D

Indy was #2 in the league, converting 92% of red zone drives into points, 66% of which were TDs.

Chicago was #9 on defense, allowing 80% of red zone drives to be converted into points, 48% of which were TDs.

Regular Season: Chi O vs. Indy D

Chicago was #18 on offense, converting 84% of red zone drives into points, 48% of which were TDs.

Indy was #31 on defense, allowing 82% of red zone drives into points, 59% of which were TDs.

What do the regular season numbers tell us?

So as good as Indy was on offense, they were as bad on defense. Meanwhile, Chi was above avg on defense and just below average on offense.

In the Postseason

Postseason: Indy O vs. Chi D

Indy was #7 out of 12 playoff teams, converting 92% of red zone drives into points, but only 50% of which were TDs. However, Indy did face the #1 and #2 regular season red zone defenses (Balt and NE) in the playoffs.

Chi was dead last of the 12 playoff teams, allowing all 4 red zone drives to be converted not just into points, but into TDs. That's 100% for points and 100% for TDs. And they didn't face a top 10 red zone offense - the #11 and #14 ranked regular season red zone offenses.

Postseason: Chi O vs. Indy D

Chi was #3 out of 12 teams, converting 88% of red zone drives into points, 63% of which were TDs. However, they faced the #28 and #22 red zone defenses.

Indy was #9 out of 12 teams, allowing 71% of red zone drives to be converted into points, 57% of which were TDs. However they did face the #3 and #5 (KC and NE) ranked red zone offenses on the regular season.

What do the postseason numbers tell us?

Indy has faced much stiffer red zone competition, two top 5 teams in both defense and offense, and still performed well. They converted 92% of offensive opportunities, same as the regular season, and allowed fewer red zone drives to be converted into points on defense - 71%, which is actually better than Chi did on the regular season.

Chicago has faced mediocre competition, and has not impressed. They converted slightly more red zone possessions into points as they did on the regular season, and although they converted a larger % into TDs, they faced some very weak red zone defenses. On defense, they have been terrible in the playoffs, allowing all 4 drives to score TDs, and not facing a red zone offense nearly as good as Indys.

The advantage here must go to the Colts. If this was the first playoff game, you would lean towards the Bears, but after seeing how Indy has performed against some of the leagues finest in red zone offense/defense, and how poorly Chi has performed against the opposite, the Colts clearly deserve this check.


Section 9

A look at the lines:

First, Indy's O-Line vs. Chicago's D-Line

There has been a lot of talk about how Chicago D-Line was hurt by losing Tommie Harris. We know on the season they are holding opponents to 4 ypr. You can see above how my stats break out for ypr based on portions of the season. I can tell you that at home, surprisingly, they allowed 4.3 ypr to teams who usually gain only 4.0 ypr. They did worse than avg. But on the road, they held teams to 3.7 ypr who averaged 3.9 on the season. And their L3 on the road, they clamped up even more, allowing only 3.4 to teams who averaged 4.0. In the playoffs, though, they allowed Seattle and NO, teams who averaged 3.8 ypr on the year, to run for 4.3 ypr. So while they clamped up during the regular season, they have struggled so far in the playoffs.

Let's look at how Chi's run D ranks by position - the numbers are the ypr allowed, followed by rank (these positions are not exact, just to show approximate location):

LE: 4.09, 16th
LT: 3.53, 7th
MID: 3.99 5th
RT: 4.18 17th
RE: 3.08 6th

As you can see, they are very stout in the middle, ranking 5th in the league at runs up the middle. They are also good at defending runs to their far right (offense's left). Their have weaknesses on their left side and right tackle. So up the middle is tough going.

So it is no surprise that they ranked #2 in the league at runs stuffed. Meaning runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain, or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. (Imagine how good they would be w/ Tommie Harris...) But they ranked #28th in the league in runs of 10+ yards. So like I said, up the middle and you get stuffed, away from the middle and you may have more success.

Other teams were aware of this as well, because on the season, they rushed only 42% of the time up the middle on Chi, which is 7% less than the league average. They rushed above the league average on Chicago's RT and LT.

Now, let's start looking at real game stats: Chicago's 3 best performances against the run came against AZ (1.7 ypr), NE (2.5 ypr) and TB (3.0 ypr). So let's take a look at how those teams tendencies on the season, and where they are successful in running behind their O-Lines.

AZ is terrible at running the ball (tell me something we don't know) and run to their left an avg of #22 in the league, and to their right an avg of 28th in the league.
NE likes to run either up the middle, or to their LE. This plays right into Chi's hands, as Chi is best up the middle and on their RE. NE's combined rank is 12th to their left and 28th to their right.
TB is well below average running to their left. Their avg rank to the left is 26th and to the right is 17th. Not much better.

So it's not really surprising that Chi held these teams to few YPR.

Let's examine Chicago's 3 worst performances against the run.

SF (7.2 ypr) - SF is great running to their LE, avg 6 ypr and #2 in the league, and is well above avg #12 at running to their RE. So they can get run to both edges w/ success.
NYG (6.8 ypr) - They are great at running to the outside. They rank #3 to their LE, #4 to their RT and #2 to their RE.
MIN (5.5 ypr) - They are also top 5 at running to the outside - ranking #5 in runs behind both their RE and RT. They also are top 10 in runs behind their LT.

So as you can see, teams that had success against Chi were able to run outside w/ success, not necessarily all the way outside, but let's say not up the middle.

Well how did Indy do on the year?

They were #1 in the league in runs behind their LT, and top 10 in runs behind both their LE and RT. And not only that, they were #5 in runs up the center. Their runs up the center was better than SF, NYG or MIN up the center.

So as long as Indy does not focus on trying to jam the ball up the middle, and uses runs off the middle (which they are successful at doing), they could have moderate to good success running the ball.

I know ESPN will tell you that Indy won't be able to run the ball on Chi, but we will see what happens. I am not predicting monster numbers from either back. But success would be gaining just enough yardage to keep the D honest, to allow things to open up for Peyton, and to provide some long runs when the D is expecting pass. I think if the Colts develop a good gameplan in this regard, they will come out on top.

Bears O-Line vs the Colts D-Line

We know the Colts have been run on during the regular season. We know that during the regular season they averaged 5.3 ypr against. Tell that to them now. In the playoffs so far they have held opponents who gain 3.9 ypr on average to only 3.6 ypr. Very impressive indeed. Remember, in the playoffs, the Bears allowed teams who averaged 3.8 ypr on the year, to run for 4.3 ypr. So the Colts really stepped up, which can't be said for the Bears.

Back to the Colts, they were #32 in power success, which is defined as Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.

They were #30 in runs of 10+ yards.

Here are their numbers during the regular season by position (ypr followed by rank):

LE: 1.86 1st
LT: 4.94 26th
MID: 4.99 32nd
RT: 5.71 32nd
RE: 3.24 8th

Surprisingly good on either end, but only because their opponents just run straight up the gut on them. In fact, of the runs against Indy this season, 61% went right up the middle. The league avg is 49% up the middle. (Interestingly enough, the only team that had a higher % of runs straight up the middle was NE, w/ a whopping 68%).

So they are bad up the middle, and opponents know it and have tried to take advantage of it.

I won't break down their opponents, because there were 6 games on the year they allowed 6 or more ypr. Absolutely terrible. But I will say that those teams who were able to do well against Indy, could run the ball up the middle:

NYG - #12 up the middle, #4 to their RT
PHI - #3 up the middle
JAC - #4 up the middle, #3 to their LT
DEN - $6 up the middle, #7 to their RT
the only exception would be:
TEN - which was only #23 up the middle and #16 to their RT. Part of this one has to do w/ Vince Young - ran 9 times for 78 yards in one game, and 4 times for 43 yards and Ten's only TD in the other game.

So, let's guess what the Bears are good at?

How about ranking #1 at running up the middle, and #8 to their LT.

Now remember, Indy on O is #1 behind their LT and #5 up the middle, so collectively better than the Bears. But the point is, the Bears have a better run D than the Colts do, at least during the regular season.

The real key will be, does Indy continue to surprisingly excel in the run D dept like they did their first 3 playoff games?

Because remember, their opponents in the playoffs:

KC - #8 up the middle
Bal - #20 up the middle, #9 to their LT
NE - #9 up the middle

They had well above avg running attacks up the middle (save for Bal), but Indy still held them to below their avg rushing yards, and won all 3 games.

And those regular season games, when they allowed over 6 ypr to those other teams I listed above, Indy's record in those games was 5-2. So just because Chi may have the power to run on Indy, it does not equate to a win necessarily. So don't be surprised to see Chi time and time again try to pound the ball up the middle.

Section 10

Conclusions:

My favorite scenario is scenario 1, which is a 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late. Overall, these numbers show a VERY EVEN game. Indy holds a 6-5 advantage in offensive stats, and Chi holds a 6-5 advantage in defensive stats. And w/ those numbers, there are several key battles.

First of course is the turnover battle. Chicago has been thriving by taking 1.4 fumbles per game whereas opponents averaged only 0.8 on the regular season. But Indy has only fumbled 0.3 times per game, less than the 0.7 their opponents usually force. Indy has thrown 1.3 ints per game and Chi only 0.9, but both are about what their opponents average for interceptions. Indy actually has a slight bit more interceptions on D than Chicago, and the number looks larger when you factor that Indy’s opponents don’t throw as many ints as Chi’s opponents. So this turnover battle will be key. If Chi can force Indy to fumble or create a couple Ints, Chi really has an advantage. On the other hand, if Indy takes care of the ball, it really will hurt Chi because they are used to generating these turnovers.

Second is 3rd down conversions. Chi only averaged 35% while Indy was at 52% Indy was well above opponent avg. Both teams on D hold their opponents below their usual average, and both Ds are right around 34% in preventing 3rd down conversions. So the numbers here don’t bode well for Chi on offense, but the real battle will be Indy’s O vs Chi’s D. If Indy can convert about 50% of their 3rd downs, they will severely strain Chi, as Chi is used to holding teams to much lower % and getting their offense back on the field.

Then you have the running game, and while both teams are averaging 4 ypr, Chi’s opponents are giving up 4.5, so Chi has been below avg in their run game. But we all know Indy has struggled in theirs, and even w/ factoring playoff numbers in for 50% of the total, Indy is giving up 5 ypr, almost 1 more than opponent avg. If Indy can continue their dominant form from the last 3 games, they have a good shot at holding Chi to around 4 ypr and that would really benefit Indy. If Chi is able to get closer to 5 ypr, they have really helped themselves.

Scenario 2: If you want to look at a scenario where there is not as much emphasis on the playoffs as scenario 1, but still over double that of a regular season game (more of a focus on road games over the season), then we find that the Colts have an 8-3 advantage on offense, while the Bears have the 8-3 advantage on defense. So much more uneven on both sides of the ball, but the numbers balance out somewhat, and you can determine whether you prefer the stronger offense or the stronger defense.

Scenario 3: If you are a fan of “what have you done for me lately”, and want to look at a scenario which is extremely playoff heavy (85%), and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly home games: The Colts have that same narrow advantage on offense, 6-5, but actually have a solid 8-3 advantage on defense. Taking regular season more heavily you had that same 8-3 advantage for the Bears. So if the Colts step up as they have the past 3 games, and the Bears play in line w/ their last couple of playoff games, we could see a good game on offense but one where the Colts D steps up when it counts and tames the Bears offense.

So those are the primary angles I see w/ regard to the numbers generated in the scenarios.

Looking more at the other analyses:

Passer ratings – no question passer rating has mattered in the Super Bowl, the true question is which QB has the better game. I have more confidence in Manning, particularly after seeing his performance in the regular season. However, both QBs are somewhat prone to getting nervous, tight, and making bad decisions, Manning in big moments, and Rex when his team is down or struggling. While all the talk has been about Chi’s D scheming to stop Manning, and Rex just folding in the big game, we haven’t heard as much talk about what Indy’s D will do w/ Dungy to stop Chi’s run game. While that doesn’t have anything to do w/ passer rating, it will play a part in the confidence of each QB. I give the nod to Peyton and the Colts in this one, w/ the potential for it to be even if Peyton chokes, and the potential for it to be a landslide if Rex gets down and pressured, and starts making bad decisions.

Special teams – Chi has been great this year, no doubt, and Indy has been average, or below average. I am not talking about FGs here, I am talking return games, on O and D. Chi has struggled a bit in the playoffs, and if they continue that struggle, their biggest hope to aid their offense: Field Position, their dreams will go down the drain. If Chi can force Indy to drop into the 30s w/ 3rd down completion %, and get their return game going, I can see Chi going a long way towards a close game, and even a win. Chi MUST get the same great field position (#5 on the year) they did during the regular season. I definitely will not give this category to the Colts. It may not be as lopsided as some will think, due to Chi’s recent struggles. Couple that w/ the fact that Chi needs field position to have a chance in this one, the pressure is really on. I give a slight lean to Chi, mainly because if they have an avg day, it won’t be enough for the W. They need a great day. Adv Chi, but it is essential.

Red Zone – Chi has struggled in the playoffs, allowing 100% redzone possessions to be turned into 7 points. It doesn’t get easier facing the #2 team in the league. Indy has played tougher opposition recently in red zone O and D than has Chi, and has performed well. The advantage here goes to the Colts.

O-Lines/D-Lines – Chi can be run on and beat, and Indy seems to have a run game that has enjoyed decent success at running towards Chi’s weaknesses. However, a more decided advantage lies for Chi in running up the middle of Indy’s run D. I know nothing of the gameplans of either OC, but I will tell you that if you see Indy running up the middle to much, they are in for trouble. Indy backers better hope they run away from the middle, and Bears backers must hope they pound the middle of Indy’s D-Line. The problem in determining a true advantage here is that Indy has stepped up so significantly here. And this comparison is not just the ypr success, as I have discussed that earlier. It is which team can be run on best by the other team. I have to give a slight nod to the Bears, but believe me, it is not as lopsided as those pundits on ESPN want you to think. It depends on how Indy attacks Chi’s line, but so long as Indy is not getting stuffed constantly, they will keep the D honest, open up the pass game even more, and generate some surprising long gainers on runs of 10+ yards. Again, nod to the Bears but not landslide victory.

Section 11

My Pick

I have tried to bring the above analysis as unbiased as possible. I will tell you that the following bets will be slightly biased, as I already have a sizeable amount on Indy ML for +150.

I do think Indy wins this game. I think there is a good chance it will be a close game, and there are several keys to deciding the outcome. I am a value bettor, and I do see some value in the Bears +7.5, so long as certain things go their way. Can they win? Absolutely. Do they need to hold the Colts on 3rd down, generate a key turnover or two, and provide quality starting field position to do so? Definitely.

It is for this reason that I will add a play on Bears +7.5 and hope they step up to the table. I’d love a 3, 4 or 7 point win for the Colts obviously. But if everything goes right for the Bears and they will get the win, and I don’t want to be out everything I put on the Colts.

So I’ll take about 70% of the play I made on Colts ML and throw it onto the Bears +7.5. Right now +7.5 is -130 at Pinny, which I don’t like. Shop elsewhere, or wait until more Colts money comes in closer to gametime.

There is a chance to put in about 10% of my Colts ML bet and put it on Bears ML +220 or more. If I did that, the 3 scenarios would be:

Colts Win and Cover = 70% profit of Colts bet
Colts Win/Bears Cover = 201% profit of Colts bet
Bears Win = -17% loss of Colts bet

Which would equate to an average of 85% profit of my Indy ML over the 3 plays.

If I didn’t go for the middle (& hedge w/ Bears ML), I would have:

Colts Win and Cover = 150% profit of Colts bet
Colts Win/Bears Cover = 150% profit of Colts bet
Bears Win = -100% loss of Colts bet

Which would equate to an average of 67% profit of my Indy ML over the 3 plays

I’ve equated the %’s, and because I feel that Indy has about a 85% chance to win, and a 35% chance to cover, I think this is the way to go. If I wanted to ensure profit, I could throw more than 10% on Bears ML, but as I think they only have about a 15% chance to win, I don’t want to throw too much on it. We will see what happens.

I have not made any of these plays on the Bears yet, so these % are rough right now, and as always, I will look to maximize value with in-game betting.

If I had to recommend a pick to someone who had no Indy ML pending, I probably would lean to taking the Bears and the points, but I also like Indy to win the game. So that is why I feel cautiously confident in my position, and why I like the fact that I will set myself up to have great chance at a good day, a decent chance at an incredible day, and a only a mediocre chance at a slightly subpar day. Indy could cover, so I would not bet more than I am willing and able to lose on the Bears +7.5

I look forward to hearing comments both good and bad.

Good luck on your wagers.

Past Playoff Analysis - NE @ Indy

Just thought I'd share two of my writeups from games earlier in the playoffs. Neither are as detailed as the Super Bowl, but should give you some good reading:

An unbiased breakdown of Indy/NE

I don't like looking at full season stats, especially at this time of year. If we take the L3 Home/Away, it gives us 1 playoff game for each team (Pats at SD, Indy vs KC) as well as how they finished up their season. The stats I will note below are L3, unless otherwise stated. Since I will be referring to these L3 H/A throughout, I will show you the teams that are included in this sample:

NE: Road games @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21
Indy: Home games vs. KC W 23-8, MIA W 27-22, and CIN W 34-16

Rushing Defenses:

We know that Indy has shored up their run D substantially in the playoffs. But they were doing so to close out the season. They really shut down KC and made them one dimensional, and played adequately against Bal. They are facing a more balanced team w/ NE. NE has averaged 4.1 ypr while Indy has given up 4.5 ypr. However on the flip side, Indy has rushed for 4.2 ypr and NE has given up 5.3 ypr. But remember, NE has gone up against some tough running offenses, who averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Meanwhile the offenses Indy went up against averaged only 4.0 ypr.

So both defenses are giving up a little more on the ground than the teams they face have averaged on the season.

In their first meeting, NE averaged 4.5 ypr while Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But as you know, Indy has improved on its rush D of late, and NE got those 4.5 ypr at a time when Indy had allowed on avg 5.4 ypr in it's 7 games prior to NE.

Rushing Offenses:

As the stats above show, both teams are averaging just over 4.1 ypr on offense. NE has produced exactly what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 4.1 ypr. Indy has produced 4.2 ypr, a hair above what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 3.9 ypr.

In their first meeting this year, Indy could only muster 2.1 ypr against NE, while NE averaged 4.5 against Indy. I am confident we will see a better showing than Indy's 2.1 ypr from the earlier game. This comes down to the gameplaning, which I will touch on at the end. In that first matchup NE tried to stop Indy's run game and make Peyton beat them. We will see if they try the same thing, considering Peyton was able to get the job done up in NE.

Passing Defenses:

Both teams have held their opponents to fairly low pass completion %. Indy held their opponents to 52% and NE held their opponenets to 51%. However it becomes more obvious who has the advantage in terms of defensive philosophy and talented secondaries when you look at the YPA and YPC. Indy has held their opponents to 4.9 ypa and 9.4 ypc. NE on the other hand has allowed 6.7 ypa and 13.2 ypc.

Now let's talk for a moment in terms of ypc during the season. Over the entire season, NE has allowed 10.9 ypc. There were only 9 teams w/ worse ypc than NE. I'll name them just to give you a comparsion: Atl, Ari, NYG, Dal, TB, GB, StL, Cle and Was. On the season, these teams averaged about 11.5 ypc.

NE the last 3 road games has averaged 13.2 ypc!

Well, who are these great QBs who are throwing deep and connecting on NE? None other than Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, and David Garrard. Not one QB who was their team's starting/primary QB last year.

Now I realize in their L3 home games, Indy did go up against Cleo Lemon in one game. However they faced a veteran Trent Green and the #4 rated (in terms of ypa) Carson Palmer as well.

In their last matchup, both QBs completed about 56% of their passes, but Indy averaged 16.3 ypc compared to 10.0 ypc for NE. As I said earlier, it may have been Belichick's plan to stuff the run, which is why Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But Peyton clearly burned his secondary which has given up huge plays throughout the season, especially of late.

Passing Offenses:

NE has averaged 61% completions compared to 73% thrown by Indy. NE has been throwing for a respectable 6.4 ypa which is about what they averaged on the season. Indy is slightly better w/ 7.2 ypa. Since Indy has been completing a much larger % of their passes, you can therefore guess that NE has had a slightly better ypc over the L3. 10.6 ypc vs. 9.9 ypc for Indy.

Both teams have been doing excellent at avoiding sacks by utilizing shorter drops, less time in the pocket, and faster developing plays. Against SD, Brady threw for only 5.5 ypa and 10.4 ypc. It is obvious from the numbers and by watching Peyton, he is doing the exact same. This cuts down on negative plays (so long as you don't turn the ball over), and keeps the momentum going of the offense, and prevents forcing 3rd and long situations.

Turnovers have been a highlight of both NE and Indy. It's well documented that Peyton has thrown 1 TD and 5 Ints this postseason. However Brady isn't exactly playing lights out himself, coming off a 2 TD, 3 Int performance against SD.

In their last matchup, as stated above, Indy averaged 16.3 ypc vs only 10.0 ypc for NE. Brady threw 0 TDs and 4 Ints (2 were on tipped passes).

Other Key Statistics:

Penalities: NE has had problems w/ penalties recently. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. NE has averaged 7.7 defensive penalties for 81 ypg. That is compared to Indy's D averaging only 2.3 defensive penalties for 14 ypg. On offense, it is not quite as bad for NE, but they are still averaging over 2 more offensive penalties for 35 more ypg than Indy's offense.

3rd down %: We know how critical 3rd downs are in the NFL. And NE simply is not getting it done on the road. They have averaged 36% 3rd down completions. That includes the 24% game at SD last weekend. Meanwhile you have the Colts, who are #2 in the league during the regular season, and averaging 53% their L3 home. Indy'd D has been downright stingy, allowing less than 30% 3rd downs to their opponents. NE's D has been good too, allowing opposing teams only 35% 3rd down completions. Indy (again) has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this one.

Red Zone %: Indy has the advantage here as well. Better on offense (67% vs to NE's 55%) and better on defense (allowing 30% conversions vs Indy's 50%).

I decided to take a closer look at the defenses.

Indy seems to have stepped up as of late, and I hear the stat that NE has allowed the 2nd fewest points on the year. And the fewest in Pats history. So I wanted to see how they really rank in several key categories w/ the NFL

So here is a comparison of NE's Defense over the season. I will discuss how they did in the regular season, then how they did in their last 3 overall, and finally how they did in their L3 road games.

I will then compare those numbers to how Indy has fared in it's L3 home games. So keep in mind, when discussing NE's L3 and L3 road schedule:

Last 3 Games: @SD W 24-21, vs. NYJ W 37-16, @TEN W 40-23
Last 3 Road games: @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21

PPG

Reg Season: NE ranked 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore, allowing only 14.8 ppg during the season. The teams they played averaged 20.8 ppg over the season. So NE held them to a solid 6 ppg below their avg.

Last 3: NE has allowed 20.0 ppg in the last 3 games. The teams they played averaged 23.6 ppg over the season. So that is a respectable 3.6 ppg below their average.

L3 Road: NE has allowed 21.7 ppg in L3 Road. The teams they played averaged 24.8 ppg over the season. So similar to their L3, they held the opposition to 3.1 ppg below average.

Just for Comparison: The L3 for Indy, they have allowed 12.0 ppg, and the teams they played averaged 19.7 ppg over the season. So Indy hel them to 7.7 ppg below their average.

Rushing D - YPR

Reg Season: NE allowed only 3.9 ypr on the regular season. That was good for 7th in the league.

Last 3: NE allowed 4.8 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.4 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.

L3 Road: NE allowed 5.3 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained (once again) 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.

Just for Comparison: The L3 home games for Indy, they allowed 4.5 ypr, and the teams they played averaged 4.0 ypr. Their opponents gained 0.5 more ypr vs Indy than they averaged on the season.

Rushing D - TDs

Reg Season: NE allowed 11 rushing TDs on the year, good for 9th in the league. That was an average of 0.69 rush TDs/game.

Last 3: NE allowed 4 rushing TDs. That is an avg of 1.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.3 rush TDs/game on the year. So they break even.

L3 Road: NE allowed 6 rushing TDs, that is an avg of 2.0 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.4 rush TDs/game on the year. So NE allowed 0.6 more rushing TDs/game than their opponents gained on average.

Just for Comparison: The L3 home for Indy, they allowed 1 rushing TD, which is an avg of 0.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 0.8 rush TDs/game on the year, so Indy allowed 0.5 fewer rushing TDs/game allowed than their opponents gained on average. If we look at L3 overall, Indy has not allowed a single rushing TD in their L3.

Passing D - YPC

Reg Season: NE allowed 10.9 ypc on the year, which is 22nd in the league.

Last 3: NE allowed 13.0 ypc. Opponents averaged 10.9 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.1 ypc more than they averaged on the season.

L3 Road: NE allowed 13.2 ypc. Opponents averaged 11.2 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.0 ypc more than they averaged on the season.

Just for Comparison: Whether L3 overall or L3 home, Indy is allowing 8.9 and 9.4 ypc respectively. Their opponents averaged 10.3 ypc (L3 overall) and 10.7 ypc (L3 home). Indy has held them to about 1.3 ypc less than what they averaged on the season.

Passing D - % Complete

Reg Season: NE allowed 56.8 % completions in the reg season, which is 8th in the league.

Last 3: NE has allowed only 48.6 % completions. Their opponents averaged 59% on the year. So NE has allowed 10.4% fewer completions than those teams average.

L3 Road: NE allowed 50.5 % completions. Their opponents averaged 57.4% on the year. So NE has allowed 6.9% fewer completions than those teams average.

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 56.2 % completions L3 and 52.3 % completions L3 home. But this is against teams who averaged 60.2 % (both L3 and L3 home). So Indy is allowing between 4 % and 7.9 % fewer completions than those teams average.

Passing - TDs

Reg Season: NE allowed only 10 passing TDs on the year, which is #1 in the league. It is an avg of 0.63 pass TDs/game.

Last 3: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.

L3 Road: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3 road, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 2 passing TDs their L3, and 2 passing TDs their L3 home. That is an avg of 0.7 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged between 1.1 pass TDs/game and 1.3 pass TDs/game. So Indy has held them to between 0.4 and 0.6 fewer passing TDs/game.

Red Zone Conversion %

Reg Season: NE has allowed only 34% TDs once a team is inside the red zone. This is good for #2 in the league.

In the playoffs: NE has allowed a 50% TD conversion rate once inside the red zone. This is 16% more than during the regular season. However the teams they faced, SD and NYJ, during the regular season converted 58% of red zones into TDs. So NE held them to 8% less than their average.

Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed a 33% TD conversion rate in the playoffs, During the regular season they allowed a 59% TD rate. So they allowed 26% fewer red zone TDs thus far in the playoffs. In addition, the teams they faced, KC and Balt, during the regular season converted on 51% of red zones into TDs. So Indy held them to 18% less than their average.


To Summarize:

During the regular season, NE's D has been great (top 3) on the season at PPG allowed ,the fewest passing TDs allowed, and Red Zone TDs allowed.

They have been decent (top ten) in rushing ypr allowed, rushing TDs allowed, completion % allowed.

The only stat they have been very poor at during the season is passing ypc allowed.

However, in the most recent games, they have improved in a couple areas but slipped noticably in the rest:

Good:

They have been doing well at pass completion % - less now than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.

And they also have been doing well at passing TDs, allowing fewer than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.

Neutral:

They are allowing more PPG (though still fewer than opposition average).

They are allowing a higher red zone TD conversion % (though still lower than opposition average).

Bad:

They are allowing more rushing ypg (5.3 ypg) which is more than opposition average.

They are allowing more average rushing TDs, and more than their opposition average.

They are allowing more passing ypc and more than their opposition average.



The other thing to draw from this is how Indy's D has compared to NE's recently. Compared to NE:

Advantage Indy

Fewer PPG and fewer than opposition avg

Fewer rushing TDs and fewer than opposition avg

Fewer passing ypc and fewer than opposition avg

Lower Red Zone TD conversion % and lower than opposition avg


Advantage NE

Passing TDs allowed - NE allows fewer and a lower avg than opposition avg.


Push

Rush ypr is a push, because while Indy is averaging fewer ypr allowed, their opposition gains less, so that one is too close to deem an advantage.

Pass completion % is a push, because while NE is averaging a lower completion %, their opposition throws for a lower % on avg, so the comparision is too close to deem an advantage.


Overall:

There are several ways to look at this game. You can look at recent statistics, you can look at their last couple of matchups, or you can just take a gut feel. The last one would what a guy does who says "throw the stats out the window" for this key game.

Any way you slice it, I think the edge falls into Indy's court. As big an issue that has been made of Indy's run game, there is an even worse problem w/ NE's pass D. I am not suggesting that Phillip Rivers, Vince Young and David Garrard sliced up NE's pass D, afterall NE allowed only 1 passing TD and took 3 Ints. But, those 3 QBs averaged 51% completions for 13.2 ypc against NE. They now have to face one of the deadliest QBs in the game today, who did carve NE up the last 2 meetings.

I wanted to introduce this final look at the QBs before I complete my analysis. I realize that for several years now, since about 01-02, when NE won their first SB that Tom Brady has been more "clutch" than any other QB in the league. I know that on ESPN they always say if you want a guy for 1 game, who would you take, and everyone says Brady. I won't dispute that. But I want to look at this season and see what Manning has done vs. what Brady has done. Granted, these aren't "Clutch" games during the regular season.

But what about "Clutch" situations?

What about when your team is losing? What about in the 2nd half of the game? What about on 3rd down?

This year, Manning has been pretty remarkable:

When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 119.1 is higher than on first or second down.
And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.

Comparing that to Brady:

When the Pats are losing, his rating of 72.4 is lower than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 86.1 is lower than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 76.8 is lower than on first or second down.
And on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when you need it the most, his rating is 67.6.

So while I am not stating that Peyton Manning will be more "Clutch" this weekend, Peyton has been extremely "Clutch" in key situations throughout this season, and Brady has not really rose to the occasion. Will Brady revert to his "Clutch" form this weekend, in the most "Clutch" game of all thus far this season? That is what Pats backers are banking on. We will see if it happens...

So looking back to what I have presented, I see the obvious key being the Colts pass offense vs. the NE pass defense. A close second will be the turnover battle, and lastly but important nonetheless, the Colts rush defense vs. the NE rush offense. A lot depends on how Belichick approaches this game - no one can predict what he will do. If he takes away the run, Peyton can and will beat him in the air. If he gives a more balanced defensive assault, I look for a more even game.

To the guys who say "throw the stats out the window": I see a balanced Colts team who is primed for its shot. This is not the same NE team from 01-05. Indy has won the last 2 in NE, and in both games Peyton was outstanding. (Throwing 66% completions for 324 ypg, 5 total TDs and 2 Ints.) I see a NE team that is well coached, has overcome the odds to get where they are, and are riding the wings of percieved dominance. They realistically were lucky to leave SD w/ a win. Indy must look to the big plays on offense that they avoided against Balt and KC. Use the run to set up the short pass and come back w/ a deep pass. NE gives up big pass plays and this should be the focus of Indy's attack.

This game is not a sure thing whatsoever. In my mind and on paper I am predicting the way it plays out, and in the most likely scenario I come up with, I see a 24-20 Colts victory. But as we know, one single play could be the difference in this game. They guy betting on the Pats has to be thinking the headlines on Monday are what they have been during the Pats superbowl run:

"Manning Chokes, Brady is Clutch, Belichick is a Genius"

But again, this is not that same Pats team, and this Colts team has the will to win, by any number of ways. The Colts will run if they need to, they will pass if they want to, they will play D and allow you to only score FGs, and they will win by kicking FGs. This is not a one-dimensional team, and they are playing as cohesive right now as they have played all year.

That is why the best play this weekend, in my opinion, is Indy to win the SB at +150.

For a couple of reasons. First, I feel OK about -3, I like -2.5 better, but I like ML the most. But right now you would only get Indy ML for around -165. That is pretty harsh. As it stands now, Pinny has -3 at -118, and -2.5 at -144. Both are tough to swallow.

Second, if Indy wins this game, I think you will see them installed as fairly substantial favorites, well above 3 points. If you predict a close SB game that may be won by the underdog or may result in a close loss to the Colts, you could shoot for the middle and take the points. Either way, you now have the favorite at + money and don't have to lay points.

The only reason not to take Indy +150 to win the SB is if you think the NFC winner will beat the Colts. Then you could cough up and take Indy ML this weekend, or more reluctantly, Indy -2.5.

Past Playoff Analysis - KC @ Indy, Dal @ Sea

Just wanted to share some info. Betting is all about public perception. And it helps when ESPN is constantly blabbing all day about how the Chiefs drew the perfect matchup against the Colts. Saying how great KC's run O is and how terrible Indy's is. That is, it helps if you plan on betting on Indy. Keeps the line down.

I wanted to see if all this hype is "shock" to get people to tune in, or if it is actual fact.

ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league

We all know that over the course of the season, Indy has the #32 ranked rush D. That is a truth.

But you want to know something? Over the last 3 games, KC's run D has been WORSE than Indy's. KC's D has allowed 5.8 ypr to Indy's 4.8 ypr over the last 3 games. Neither are good, but KC has been terrible. Now I realize that KC played the #2 and #4 teams in the league in ypr during that span. While the toughest Indy faced was the #11 ypr offense of the Dolphins. Which is why I am an "ask why" type of guy. So let's ask: "Why"

Let's look closer at how the rush D's of each team perform in recent games. We already looked at the last 3 overall. Now let's look at the last 4 home games for Indy, and the last 4 road games for KC.

Indy's 4 most recent home games were vs. Miami, Cincy, Philly and Buffalo

Indy allowed 4.8 ypr to these teams (which happens to be the same as they gave over the last 3).

Those teams have an average rank (for rush offense) of 16.5, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.1 ypr

KC's 4 most recent road games were at Oak, SD, Cle and Mia

KC allowed 5.1 ypr to these teams

And those 4 teams have an average rank of 15.5, again, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.2 ypr

Conclusion: Whether looking at the last 3 overall or the last 4 home/away, Indy's miserable rush D has been better than KC's.

Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two

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ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup

If you want to look at rush O to see if there is some drastic reason why KC will dominate more on the ground than Indy, let's look at the rush O for both teams.

Over the last 3 games, KC has rushed for an avg of 4.1 ypr and Indy has averaged 4.4 ypr. Again, suprising advantage to Indy. Let's ask "Why?"

Looking again to the most recent 4 road/home games:

KC ran for an average of 4.4 ypr in their last 4 road games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.0 ypr on the season.

Indy ran for an average of 4.7 ypr in those last 4 home games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.2 ypr on the season.

Conclusion A: Despite the fact that Indy is a passing team (#2 in the league), they have been running the ball better than KC recently (L3), and recently at home (L4 @ H).

Who else may have KC drawn in the WC? I realize not the Jets, but let's include both NYJ and NE shall we:

NYJ have allowed 4.5 ypr their last 3, and NE has allowed 5.6 ypr their last 3. Remember, Indy has allowed 4.8 ypr their L3. So it's not like Indy (lately) has been absolutely flat out terrible in run D compared to other AFC WC teams.

Looking more at Myth #2, why not see if Indy didn't draw the perfect matchup?

No AFC WC team has allowed more passing yards the L3 than KC, who is allowing 189 ypg in the air. They also are tied w/ NE for the most ypattempt. KC is also allowing 62% completions in the L3, despite facing the high powered passing offenses of Jac, Oak and SD!!! And as we said earlier, we know how KC's rushing D has been lately - terrible.

Conculsion B: Indy may have drawn a better matchup than KC.

Truth #2 - Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.

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ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field

The other thing to remember is Indy is the best in the league at converting on 3rd down. Converting on 56%. KC is only converting on 40% of 3rd downs. And that is 40% on the season, as well as 40% in their L3 road games. In their L3 overall, they have only converted on 33% of 3rd downs!

The hype is that KC will be able to control the clock w/ the run game and keep Peyton off the field. Of course KC will try to do this, many teams have as well. But often times it is Peyton who is converting those 3rd downs and leading his team on time consuming drives (and putting up points on the other end). In the Cincy game, Indy scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter after 11 minutes of offense and scored another 14 in the 3rd quarter after 9 minutes of offense.

Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.

Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.

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Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game

This plays off of Myth #3 and actually Myth #1 as well.

I also don't buy into all this ESPN "Indy must jump out to a big lead" talk. Are they suggesting Indy strategize to go up early, quickly? Doesn't every single team try to go up early, quickly? If they are suggesting Indy must get overly risky just to get a lead, I find that hard to believe.

Indy will be able to throw and run on KC, so long as the play calling is effective and unpredictable. On Defense, why should they be scared of the Chiefs running game any more than other opponents they have faced at home? As I said earlier, they have faced teams that average 4.1 ypr, and now are facing KC who has averaged 4.4 ypr recently, and 4.2 ypr over the course of the season. Not that much different than what they are used to facing. Sure, LJ is a star in the league, so combining that w/ Indy having the #32 rush D on the season hypes up the media.

Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.

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Review of Myth and Truth:

ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league
Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two

ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup
Truth #2 - Considering potential AFC opponents, Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.

ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field
Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.

ESPN Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game
Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.

Final Comments:

It will not surprise me to see Indy run (yes I said run, and also pass) the ball effectively against KC and control the game. Mixing it up, game planning and game management are of course the key. Indy has recently beaten Cincy and Philly at home by an average of 21 points. However they have had close victories over Buf and Mia by an average of 3 points. I see this game falling somewhere in between. By no means am I suggesting Indy -7 is a top play or a superb play. I simply feel it is the right side.

Does Indy have problems w/ their run D? Yes, that is true, they do. Will it cost them THIS game? I will bet that it does not.

As I state above: Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.

My system shows Indy by 5.1 points. The only real thing I have in KC's favor is fewer full season penalty yardage, but if you look closer at that number you will see in the last 5 road games, KC has averaged 78 penalty ypg and Indy's L5 @ H are only averaging 69 penalty ypg. So that swings back to Indy's favor.

When you dig deeper than the system (doing the hard part and capping the game), I find a higher probability of Indy covering 6.5 than I do KC covering 7. I don't like to lay 7 points, so I will only lay some on -6.5, and work w/ Indy on a few teasers for a larger amount.

I will plan on laying 6.5 w/ Indy and will also tease down to pickem and pair it with Dallas +10. I may also look at other potential matchups on Sunday to tease with Indy pickem.