Best Bets on Dogs, Stray from these Favs

Last year, as the year progressed, you can tell which teams the public "buys into". And just as easily, you can tell which teams the public just does not understand.

"Why do they keep losing, they are stacked w/ talent and coaching?"
or
"I can't believe this team keeps covering - they should get blown out. They're killing me!"

And yet game after game, these teams continue to be undervalued or overvalued. We can learn from last year, but once again, you still have to look at this years teams/stats/results and not just bet on a team who was great as a Dog ATS last season for no other reason but that one.

Getting started, let's look at the Favorites:

The Broncos were the worst offender on this list. They were made favorites in 13 of their 16 games, and failed to cover in 10 of the 13 games. However, they were able to win 8 of those games. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost as favorites in Buffalo. Not much has changed.

A close second offender were the Jags. They failed to cover in 7 of the 10 games they were favorites. The even bigger problem - they failed to win those games. If they didn't cover, they didn't win. And if they won, they would cover. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost outright to the Titans. Not much has changed.

The Broncos in particular were one of those teams the public just did not get. Vegas continued to make money by making Denver the favorite, and the public continued to wager on them.

The teams in red are those favorites who would have lost you money if you took them and laid the points on every game they were favored.

On the other hand, the Jets were kind to bettors. They went 5-1 as favorites ATS (and of course won them all, as they were favored).

So far this season, of the teams who would have won you money last year, the Chargers, Bengals, Steelers and Pats were all favored in week 1. And they all covered. Not much has changed. But be careful, none of those teams had "way above avg" ATS ratings, but they were better than average.

The Jets far and away would be the team that got the job done last year. They are another example of a team the public did not get. The public would take the dog, and the Jets would continue to cover.... the opponents in these games were among the NFL's lowliest - Mia, Det, Hou, GB, Buf, Oak. But even though the oddsmakers kept the lines below -5 for the Jets (except Oak), the easy money was not so easy to the public, and those who took the Jets and laid points walked away happy.



Next, the Underdogs:

There were some underdogs who did absolutely terrible ATS last year. But they kept failing to cover the spread, and you made out if you bet against them. There were 4 teams that were underdogs in 14 of their 16 games. These teams were viewed as terrible by the avg bettor. They were:

Oak, GB, Det and Ten.

How do you think those teams did SU? Not as bad as you may think - 20-36.

What about ATS? How about 29-26. That's right, they actually had a winning record ATS.

The reason? Part of it has to do with the fact that the public just does not understand most underdogs. Another part was the Titans. These guys went 11-3 ATS despite being constantly made the underdogs. And worse than that?

Of those 11 wins, they only lost the game SU 3 times. That means they covered as dogs in 79% of their games, and won SU in their games as dogs 57%.

Even more impressive, since Vince Young started for them (which was week 5, I believe - correct me if I'm wrong), Ten has covered in 10 of the 11 games they were dogs. That's 91%. And won 8 of the 10 SU. For 8 straight weeks last season (weeks 9-16) they were dogs. Starting in week 10, they covered every single game, and starting week 11 (that's 6 straight) they won outright as dogs.

Looking at week 1 of this season, the Titans were dogs to the Jags, and the Titans covered and won SU as well. Not much has changed.

Other teams that were particularly impressive were the Saints and the Bills. Don't expect the public to sleep on the Saints this year, but they may on the Bills. While covering the spread in 8 of their 11 games as dogs, they actually lost 7 of them. So careful on ML-ing the Bills, but taking the points may not be too bad an investment in the right situation.

In the Bills first game of this season, they covered as dogs but lost SU to the Broncos. Not much has changed.

Looking at the other side, the teams to be extra cautious is the Redskins. By far the worst record ATS as dogs, the Skins went 4-9 ATS.

The truth about Teasers. A must read for those who play them or who refuse to do so.

The next in my background articles about sports betting, I’m tackling the topic of teasers. I have seen many this week discuss going the route of teasers. Teasing is a way for a player to take the fav but give fewer points (or eventually receive them) and/or to take the dog and get more points. The catch is, instead having to win only 1 game in a regular ATS bet, you have to win more:

2 games in a standard 6 point teaser
3 games in a 10 point teaser
4 games in a 13 point “super” teaser

I’ve analyzed teasers from 2000 onwards. That gives us 7 full seasons of data. I looked at teasing from two vantage points: The first is teasing the Underdog, the second is teasing the Favorite.

The point of this article is to get actual information on historical trends to help predict future results. The main point is to show you which key numbers are the most key to cross in a teaser, and which teasers win most often and which do not.

The other thing you should know is that I have calculated my %s of winning a teaser based on picking 2 teams from that same range in the line. For instance, when calculating odds of winning a teaser for underdogs of +0.5 to +3 in a 6 point teaser, I found out the odds of an underdog who was +0.5 to +3 getting 6 additional points, and how they would have done ATS. In this case, the odds were that you would hit 73% of the games in that situation. But those are not the odds to win the teaser, as you have to hit 2 games to win the teaser.

So for a 2 game teaser, you multiply the odds together. For purposes of my comparative analysis, I multiplied 73% x 73%. Which gives you 54%. So if you teased 2 teams together in a 6 point teaser, and both were between +0.5 and +3, you would have a 54% chance of winning.

What I didn’t calculate was the chance of winning a teaser if you teased 2 teams by 6 points, but the first was between +0.5 and +3, and the second was between +6.5 and +10. I calculated the individual chances, but not the combination of the two. I will post a table which will allow you to do the math yourself, all that is required is to multiply the %s together.

First, a little background on needed % of wins to make money. I’ve taken the following paragraph from a respected site:

It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice and simply break even. Reduced juice betting drastically affects the win % by bringing this number down: -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.

So as you can see, you have flexibility when placing standard bets. You can place the bet when the juice is to your liking. Pinny will keep the line still but shift the juice from + juice to – juice, all in the matter of hours. You can also buy points to get yourself to certain numbers you want. Of course, it gets expensive to buy to key numbers, like 3 or 7, but to get to other numbers, it is not as expensive.

The bottom line, when placing a typical spread bet, you have flexibility. However, when placing a teaser, that flexibility goes out the window. No buying points, no selecting games based on juice. Teasers at sportsbooks will have standard juice, no matter which teams you select. 2-team, 6-point teasers will have a certain amount of juice, which will most likely be different from 3-team 10 point teasers and different from 4-team 13 point teasers.

There are many articles out there about how to tease published by different sites, and I’m not here to talk about generalities. There are many gamblers out there who say “Teasers are the Devil”, and some who like teasing. I’m not here to convince you one way or another. What I am trying to do is show you, based on historical fact, which teasing situations are most likely to win and which are most likely to lose.

With that said, on to teasing underdogs.

Teasing the Underdog

As you know from my prior posts, betting on underdogs, on average, have a better chance of winning. In fact, since 2000, Underdogs have gone 51% ATS.

Here are the results of my analysis on underdogs, first just the numbers, and then graphically. The numbers are in red if the likelihood of hitting the teaser is HIGHER than that of a single ATS bet without teasing. The cell is shaded a light yellow if the % is higher than 52.37%, and is therefore profitable at standard juice:

As you can see, teasing underdogs is typically not the way to go.

• There was only one occurrence of the % being higher than 52.37% on a underdog teaser, that being teasing dogs 6 points that are less than or equal to +3.


• Most all the other games are well below the winning % of picking a single game ATS in that same point spread range.


• As the point spreads get higher, the chances of you winning on a underdog teaser get lower.
  

Teasing the Favorite

Here are the results for teasing the favorite. As you can see, much better than underdogs, and in most cases, better than picking the favorite in a single game ATS.

• With favs of a FG or less, every tease presented better odds than picking the individual game ATS.


• The highest odds (aside from very high point spreads above 14) came when teasing the favorite by 13 points in a game where the spread is more than a FG but less than a TD.


• There are certain times when teasing a favorite is beneficial, and certain times when teasing a favorite should be avoided. These are shown in the table and graph above.

Situational Teasing

The other thing this analysis did not take in to account is the element of situational teasing. Such as when the total is high or low, or the public perception of certain teams based on their record. For instance:

As you can see, in the case where the line was very high and the total was not extremely high(<45)favs were more likely to cover in all situations, especially if teasing by 10 or 13 points.

In a similar situation, with a high line, but a higher total (>45), the underdog was more likely to cover in a 6 or 13 point teaser. Notice how the 10 point teaser did not help at all in this case.

There are likely many other situational spots where I could look up teaser information, and find high odds of winning a particular teaser based on line and tease type. However, I've already taken too much time as it is, and that will have to be done another time.

Table to perform your own Odds Calculations:

Lastly, I’ll include a table which you can use to calculate your own odds. Essentially, if you want to do a calculate your odds of winning, you take the percentage from the appropriate box for the starting line you want to use, and multiply it times the percentage for the next team in the teaser. If it’s a 2 team 6 point teaser, you multiply Team 1’s % x Team 2’s %. In a 4 team 13 point teaser, you multiply all 4 teams’s % to come up w/ your odds of winning.

From this table, you should see:

• If you want to take a 6 point teaser on a favorite, best chances of winning are if the spread is a FG or less, or if the spread is higher than a TD. Whereas the odds of success on a 13 point teaser on a favorite does not have as large a difference between original point spreads.


• When teasing an underdog, your chances are highest when you tease a small underdog. Taking large underdogs in teasers is not as wise.
  

Overall summary points:

• While many say teasers are sucker bets, that is not always the case.


• The time to take teasers are if you want to tease favorites, particularly in a 10 or 13 point teaser.


• However, in most all other cases (with a few exceptions), you have better odds of just getting individual games correct than you do of hitting a teaser.


• The exceptions are certain opening lines have better odds of hitting than others. The tables above shows these situations, and show when certain teasers (6, 10 or 13 point) are more wise to play due to their odds of hitting.


• Remember, just because a teaser has high odds historically has nothing to do with its ability to win on a certain future date. Smart and accurate capping should occur, and when certain games are determined to be high percentage plays, and the likelihood of hitting that teaser is high based on the historical data presented above, teasers are perfectly acceptable.


• In general, more people lose teasers than those who win them. And more people lose playing teasers than when they make standard ATS plays. Essentially, teasers typically produce more money for outlets than regular plays, so remember that when jumping at a “easy teaser”
  

I hope this information, while difficult to explain (and I’m sure follow along), was made easier to comprehend through the use of the graphs and charts. Good luck capping this week and the rest of this season!

The truth about extremely low or extremely high totals

The average total in the NFL is 41, and has been for some time. As we know, the public loves the overs. But how has the over/under fared over time?

I posted lessons on underdogs earlier, so here’s one on Totals.

The avg line is 41 for the NFL. 51% of the time, the final score is below the total. Not enough to make money betting on all unders. But are there situations when it’s more likely to be an under based on the opening line? Since setting the line is all about perception, what happens when a low line is released? How does the public react, and how do the games usually end?

For this study, I am only looking at opening lines, and I am looking at all games from the 2000-2001 season onward. I’ll start w/ the notion that the public loves an Over. And it’s true. Overs and Favorites, the public will eat them up.

See my prior work on underdogs, and you’ll see that betting dogs (smartly) will net you some cash, and betting unders (smartly) will do the same.

But here I’d like to share a sports wagering slogan you may have heard before: "Take the Under on a low total and the Over on a high total".

Think about that for a second. Wouldn't it be the opposite? Well, contrarian thinking goes a long way in sports betting.

Now, let’s crunch the numbers to see if it works out: Taking unders in games with a 41 point total or below: (Note – first note that these are opening lines, not closing. If snow was predicted and the line dropped from 40 down to 35, the O/U would show up based on the opening line of 40 in my calculation.)

As you can see, games where the opening number is avg (41) or right around there, between 39 and 41, you are already hitting over 52% (the magic number where you can break even despite the juice) if you take the unders. But once you get lower, between 35 and 38, you see more overs hitting. However, once you cross over into the very low totals of 31 and 32, you are hitting very high % on the unders. Everyone sees a 31 or 32 and would take the over, but that is not a sharp play.

Of course, if you look at the # of games that actually post totals that low, you’ll see that only 18 games in the last 7 years have had an opening total of 32 or below. That’s just over 2.5 per season. However, if you took the under on all those games, you would have won 67% of them, which is a solid, solid profit.

Now lets take the overs in games w/ a 42 point total or higher:

As you can see, from 42 points all the way up until 52 point totals, you have to pick your spots if you want an over, as more than half the time the game will go under. Which is why finding those unders may be easier than finding the overs. However, once you get to point totals that open at 53 or higher, you’re in a prime market for making some good $ by taking the overs.

Again, like w/ very low totals, you don’t see totals 53 or higher that much, just over 4.25 times per season. But take heed when you do see them…

Once again, the public sees an extreme number, and will generally go to the other side.

So the lessons here:

1. Opening numbers of 32 and below, don’t be scared to take the under


2. Opening numbers of 53 and higher, don’t be scared to take the over


3. In between, pick your spots. Unders hit more than overs, but don’t be scared to take either if you have done your homework.


4. Last but not least – don’t think that 35 and 36 are so low that it will go under, and don’t think that 50, 51, and 52 are so high that it will go over. Based on historical information, 35 and 36 point totals are more likely to go over than any total less than 52. Likewise, 51 and 52 are more likely to go under than any point total greater than 32. So don’t get carried away and think that “52 is high, take the over”.