Typically when everyone makes a huge deal about a game last week, it's good fade material. I realize Pittsburgh looked terrible offensively against Philly and struggled in the wind/rain in Cleveland the week before. And how great Baltimore looked off a bye week at home against a terrible offense/defense in Cleveland, and a game in which they were losing at the half. But I love when everyone says that it's time to take a Rookie QB on the road for the 1st game of the year in Pittsburgh. Just not a good recipe for winning plays.
However, my system is giving me no confidence in much value in this play. It's actually leaning towards Baltimore, but by the slightest of margins. Certainly not enough for me to consider taking Baltimore in this spot - just not enough value there.
My system has been hitting pretty well overall this year, better ATS than in totals but there are several reasons for that. Tomorrow I intend to update my site w/ my system records to date and give a breakdown of what they are looking like. Again, this season unlike in the past, I am using the system to assist me make my plays, as one consideration, as opposed to playing every single system play.
So, for the 2nd week in a row, I am laying off in tonight's game. If pressed I could make a lean, and that lean would probably go towards my desire to fade the talking heads who only seem concerned w/ the offensive problems of the Steelers and the defensive dominance that Baltimore has put forward over two of the most dominant forces in the NFL this year, Cincy and Cleveland (yes, that was sarcastic). But I'm not going to even go that far and I'll just say: Officially, no play. I look for value in my selections, as my goal is to consistently produce winners. And the way to do that is to limit my plays to only those w/ the most value.
I'll pack up another winning week, and a 14-4 record in hopes to produce even better results next weekend. Good luck in your selections tonight!
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