2008 Week 2

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***Friday Lunchtime Update:

I am finalizing a few items and will have my plays out to the e-mail participants tonight or worst case, early tomorrow AM. After e-mails go out, I will post the plays on this board Saturday evening, and on messageboards Saturday Late or Sunday AM.

I have received several questions regarding the e-mails. Here is my proposed schedule for this week, and in weeks ahead:

1. Tues-Thurs - E-mail only if system generates a play which should be made immediately to lock in a line, as Vegas shifts lines against us and value is lost. (Typically will be a totals play)
2. Friday Eve/Saturday AM - Standard E-mail to announce plays for the weekend
3. Sunday Morning - Standard E-mail to announce plays for Sunday (which may or may not have been involving actual weather or injuries)
4. Monday - E-mail only if there is a MNF play which I want to announce and did not do so in my prior e-mails.

E-mails #2 and #3 will be sent each and every week. Sometimes the Sunday e-mail will have NO plays, but I will still send one out so you are not waiting to make selections. Other times the Sunday e-mail will have a play or two.

E-mails #1 and #4 will be sent only as certain plays/situations arise. Once I have sent out the e-mails, I will update an announcement here to inform you as such.***


***Thursday AM Weather Update!!!

Those in Houston already know this, but Hurricane Ike is serious and is bearing down on Houston. Landfall expected Saturday in the early AM, and it will probably make it back to a Category 3 prior to landfall.

The game Sunday afternoon in Houston vs. the Baltimore Ravens could be postponed to Monday, or moved to another city in Texas.

Mentally, this has to affect players on both teams, but players on Houston could have family and friends impacted severely on Saturday, depending on where they live. The Ravens may elect to travel early to Houston and ride out the Hurricane in a hotel.

I just wanted to put this on your radar, no pun intended, in case you were looking at the Hou/Bal game and did not realize these circumstances.


Thursday AM Update over.****


As I am working towards this weekend's plays, I thought I'd share w/ you some previously released reading material.

I encourage you to review all my posts and information I used last season, and I have compiled them in this easy to use page: HERE

I typically make a few types of plays.

• System Plays - these kick off Week 3 and after a few weeks I will have a very comfortable level with which systems may do great and which may do good. As you have seen from my record, most plays have done "at least" respectable, with the majority hitting 60-70%. Hitting above 52.4% is the minimum standard for all plays, but I of course aim higher. These system plays are my most reliable (historically) plays.

• Weather Plays - I study weather, particularly in Nov/Dec, and jump on lines as early as possible. There are also occasions I think the reaction may be too strong to weather, and will therefore shoot for a middle on a play.

• Early Release Plays - These plays typically are borne out of my totals system or weather plays. When I'm running my system and I see a great value in a total, and as I watch that total for 12-24 hours and I see some movement, I will definitely jump on that play. This could be as early as Tuesday morning. Same goes for weather. Typically huge storms and large weather systems are really hyped by the media starting on Thursday (I am referring mainly to snow here). Therefore, my goal usually is beat the public and I jump on these by Wed or Thurs at the latest. The idea is always to get the most value in a line, and you can't do that if you wait until the line has moved multiple points. Sometimes if we are talking about rain/wind, and the system is moving into an area late, perhaps on Saturday afternoon, I will make my play at that time. Weather is always tricky, but I usually have a good intuition for when to make a play, lay off, or make a reverse play.

• General value, public perception, team situation/motivation plays. These plays I study starting early in the week and than gauge public reaction. Usually I come to my decision prior to the weekend. These plays are based on a multitude of factors, statistical analysis and trend analysis I preform each week.
  

The plan this season will be to release my plays by Friday PM/Sat AM. Should there be a total or a weather play that I advise capitalizing on due to potential or actual line movement, I will release that information earlier in the week. I will then be back on Sunday AM with any additional plays or words of advice/caution.

So for those of you who have signed up for my e-mails, you can expect between 2 (typically) to 3 e-mails a week related to my plays. For those that did not sign up, I will still post this information both here and on the messageboards you may have met me at, but I guarantee it will not be prior to my e-mail or this website.

Finally, a word of advice. I am not a perfect handicapper. No one is. Although I started out 7-1 for the season, and have had multiple great seasons, there is no guarantee that any particular weekend won't be a bad one. My entire intent for developing this site into what it is right now is because I am sick and tired of seeing terrible handicappers, famous from past laurels, lead both young and seasoned players astray. I see their records each and every week, and it makes me sad to see people paying big money for their plays. I'm talking well over $100 for 1 week of plays that they end up hitting well below 50% in. Is that a sharp investment? And it's not just 1 bad week, it's like that for 13 of the 17 weeks of the year.

So while I won't claim to be the best in the business, I believe that my record speaks for itself, but at the same time, I realize that unless you made money following my plays in the past (which many have), you only care about the future. And I realize that, which is why I work as hard as I do to make winning plays. Both for myself and for those who follow me. However, above all, I encourage you to use SMART MONEY MANAGMENT. Set a budget, plan it out for the season, use a percentage of that budget on your plays each week. Never roll too large in any one weekend or any one game. It is a LONG season. I am in this for the long haul, not for short term. My goal is always to finish the season up money, and I have never fell short of that goal. Use my plays, if you so desire, but also interject your own logic and thought process. If you disagree on a play, please don't make it. There will be plenty out there that we will agree on.

So, onto Week 2. I hope everyone found success in Week 1 and good luck in Week 2 to all of us.