New England's Playoff Dominance off a Bye
The first fact I mention is the most important:
NE has never lost a playoff game under Belichick after a bye week. 7-0.
NE is the best team in the NFL this year. NE is stronger than they have ever been under Belichick.
For this reason, though the Giants of course have a chance to win, I would bet strongly against the Giants winning this game. NE has never lost a playoff game off a bye before and they are now a better team than they have ever been before.
Please see the following graphic of the Pats playoff games under Belichick following a bye:
A few things to point out.
#1: Once again, 7-0 ML. Some games have been 11+ point victories. But the others have been by exactly 3 points.
#2: The Pats have never been outscored in the 4th quarter. Not only that, in 6 of the 7 games, Pats have not been outscored in the entire 2nd half. Only in one game did the opponent put up more in the 2nd half than the Pats did, and that was in the 04 DP where the Titans put up 4 more than the Patriots.
#3: The Under has gone 5-1-1. The lone over was their 2nd SB vs. Car, where teams were scoreless in the 1st and 3rd quarters, and the game was only 14-10 after 3, but they scored 37 points in the 4th and the O/U was only 38 to begin with.
#4: In the two most recent DPs, the Pats largest lead was the final margin of victory. In their 3 SBs, the Pats were up by 10, 7, and 14 earlier in the game before winning by only 3.
What my system showed
Looking towards my system, I have capped the game (taking adjustments for a pure, neutral field) at Pats -10. When you factor in that the Pats are more adapted to playing in the SB and have been playing in crutial, clutch situations for the majority of this year and have always been victorious, I'd say that this could be bumped to Pats -13 to -14.
However, this is the SB and the balls don't always bounce the way you would predict. Eight times out of ten, if this SB was played 10 times, I say Pats win by at least 10-13. Maybe one time out of ten is this game decided by single digits. And maybe just maybe there is one time out of ten that it's a coin flip game tied at the end w/ the Pats winning by a FG.
Sure, the Giants "could" win, but I hold that at about 5% chance, and as the odds are small that it happens, I factor it in at around 5% but leave it at that.
Rematch Factor
Let's get into another analysis. Here we'll look at rematches. Typically a rematch will only occur in division. There are several times it occurs in the playoffs as well. Two of the three Giants playoff games have been regular season rematches, and one of the two NE playoff games were rematches.
So, how do these teams take what they learned from the first meeting an apply it to the second. What typically happens w/ the scores of the rematch? If you ask me before I did the analysis, I'd probably say that the defenses have more time to adjust and the rematch game is slightly lower scoring.
Same can be said off a bye week. Offenses put in new packages and new wrinkles off a bye week, especially for a SB. But defenses (assuming it's a rematch from the regular season) can really adjust, strategize, and better matchup personnel to account for problems they had in the first meeting and plan for potential schemes or plays the opposing team may run. So, does a 2nd meeting of the year favor the either team in particular, or does it favor scoring or does it favor defense?
First, let's look at the
NYG in rematches:
The points to take away:
#1 - Typically in years past, NYG allowed more points to its opponents in their 2nd mtg than in their first. However, Steve Spagnuolo has firmed up this unit, when he replaced Tim Lewis last year. Now, NYG allows 6 fewer points in rematches, which is a 12 point improvement over 2006 and a 18 point improvement over 2005.
#2 - The NYG offense typically scores about 4 points less in rematches, which is about the same as they've done the past few years.
#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.
#4 - In the games where NYG did well in the first matchup, they didn't do as well in the rematch (Was and Phi games, though they did win both Phi games). In the games where NYG did poorly in the first meeting, they did better in the rematch (Dal playoff game, GB playoff game). I think NYG feel they did very well in the first meeting w/ the Pats. Also, NYG typically lost the rematch game by an avg of 3 points (though they did go 3-2, winning the 3 in close fashion, and losing the other 2 by 11 or 12 points).
Summary: NYG defense has improved in the rematch over its performance in the first meeting of the season. The final total scores are lower and the opponents put up fewer on the board.
Now, we can look at
NE in its rematches:
The points to take away:
#1 - NE also allowed 6 fewer points to its opponents in rematch games, which is the same as NYG, and is an improvement over NE's 2006 and 2007 defenses, though not by as much as NYG's improvement.
#2 - NE typically scored 10 points less in rematches. This was an interesting phenomenom which many blame on bad weather. However, while weather may have been a factor, it should have affected both teams. I know the Pats love to throw, but when the Pats get the lead then the other team will be affected trying to come back by throwing the ball. So at any rate, I won't discount that stat - teams adjusted and limited the Pats on offense by 10 fewer points.
#3 - In rematches, the average final score was 41 points. If you look past the 66 point rematch blowout score vs. Buf (56-10), the avg was only 33 total points. That is a far cry from the 1st meeting scores, which were 57 points.
#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)
Summary: Scores in the rematches were lower. Pats D stepped up and their offensive production dropped off. Many conclude the offensive dropoff is more correlated to inclement weather as opposed to opposing DCs scheming for NE. Personally I think that you should have at worst a 50/50 split, which means -5 PPG for NE for weather and -5 PPG for NE for opposing D adjustments.
Here is a summary comparison for both NYG and NE. This does not introduce new information, but is more of a summary level comparison between teams:
Analysis of Potential Plays
Moneylines vs. Spread
Right now Pinny has NYG ML +425. Most other books are between +325 and +380
This equates to typical spreads of +7.5 to +9.5. Essentially, they are reducing the payout of NYG ML and paying it only as if NYG was a 7.5 to 9.5 point dog.
Right now the best NE ML you can get is just over -400 and goes up to -500, depending on where you shop.
This equates to typical favorite spread of -7.5 to -8. In other words, they are pricing Pats ML bets as if the Pats were approx 8 point favorites.
Therefore, it is not sharp to put in NYG ML and get only +400 or lower. You are much better off taking the points.
Similarly, placing NE ML and getting around -400 is not a square bet at all. You can't look at it as if you are taking a -12 to -13 point fav and laying down on a ML. Typically on a 12 or 13 point fav, you would pay anywhere from -1100 to -1500.
I believe they have adjusted MLs because on the SB you will have tons of new money coming in. Many will take the dog ML, particularly this Giants team. So they can afford to reduce the payout and people will still play, because face it, most people still think +400 is good, and they don't realize that they should get +750 for a 12 point dog which is a huge difference.
Looking closer, Vegas they have moneylined this game as NE -8, but inflated it on the spread to -12. Therefore, I play either NE ML or NYG + points. I don't play NE on the spread and I don't play NYG ML.
Totals
I think you have to look back at #3 for NYG and #4 for NE above:
#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.
#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)
The other thing you have to do is look back at rematches of both teams. They both hold the opposing team to an avg of 6 fewer points scored and score an avg of 6 fewer on offense. So for the skeptics, you will say "73 points were scored in the first meeting, so 12 fewer is still 61, well above the total".
And I will tell you that a lot had to go right for NYG to put up 35 that first meeting.
- Do you really think NYG will return 8 KOs for 221 yards and 1 TD again? I know both teams are in the top 7 in KO returns, but NYG does not come close to that avg over the regular season, and had only 1 TD all year and that was against NE. Rest assured, NE will be better prepared in KO coverage.
- Secondly, do you really think Eli will throw for 250 and 4 TDs and only 1 Int?
- Third, do you think that Feagles will avg only 30 yards per punt for NYG and Hanson for NE will only avg 39.5 yards per punt? Feagles averaged 40 yds per game on the season, and Hanson's warmest games of the year, in Mia and the 1st game of the year @ NYJ in Sep, he avg over 52 yds. Special teams will be a factor in terms of field position, and I think both teams special teams will not play as poorly this game as they played in Dec.
Then you have to look back at NE's record in these bye week games, and they are 5-1-1 Under. Opposing teams averaged 17, and looking only at SBs, averaged 22.
I don't really like the total here but if a play must be made, I would take the Under 54.
Prop Play
Here's a play that stands out to me if you A) want to hedge any NE money you have out there and hope for a middle or B) just think the Giants can get a cover.
Right now you've got NYG +12 on avg. You can buy it up a bit, but that's where you are at. You could take NYG +17.5 for -220 if you want.
To me, the best option in this situation is "Largest Lead Under 18" for even or + Juice.
Here is why:
Look above to #2 and #4 under the "NE Playoff Dominance":
#2: The Pats have never been outscored in the 4th quarter. Not only that, in 6 of the 7 games, Pats have not been outscored in the entire 2nd half.
#4: In the two most recent DPs, the Pats largest lead was the final margin of victory. In their 3 SBs, the Pats were up by 10, 7, and 14 earlier in the game before winning by only 3.
If you look further at the first graphic, you will see the largest lead NE ever had after a bye week was 17 when they beat Ind 20-3.
The only game out of the 7 bye week playoff games where a team got a backdoor cover on NE was the Phi SB where the line was -7, NE was up 10, and Phi scored a TD to make it a 3 point game w/ 3 minutes left. They got the backdoor cover on a -7 point line.
Otherwise, all these games were relatively close, and NE either pulled away in the 2nd half or did enough to get the win in the 2nd half. Otherwise, the largest lead the Pats had at the half was a TD.
So here is the question to ask yourself. If you like NYG +12, but you think NE will win, how do you see it playing out? A close game throughout? NYG leading at the half but NE come back in the 2nd? Or NE leading at the half and it stays close throughout?
Because I think if you like NYG +12, you will only win that bet if the largest lead of the game is around 12 to 14 as well. If the Pats get up by more than 17 points, you will really be hating life begging Eli to not screw things up and march down for a TD in the 4th to get you a cover. That will be a tough spot.
Personally, I like the Under 18 point lead prop bet. Could NE get up by more than 18 and then NYG come back to cover? Yes, of course. How?
Well, being up by 19 is unlikely (26-7) but 20 is foreseeable. 30-10. 27-7. Then the problem if you have NYG +12 is, you'll need more than 1 TD to come back and get your cover. You'll need NYG to hold NE on 2 possessions and for NYG to score on 2. Most likely after the half. I just find it unlikely. It could happen, but wouldn't you like to have the buffer of 18 points rather than 12?
Sure, you could lay -220 and take NYG +17.5. But for plus juice, you can have largest lead under 18. You'd win the NYG +17.5 if NE is up by 20 and then NYG score once. Then your play would be superior to the prop. But I'm leaning on that prop play as a superior play than NYG +12.
My Plays
If you can't figure them out from reading the above, you probably glazed over things.
I'm going heavy on NE ML. I really think this is the smartest play going. I know it could lose, that's why you don't wager more than you are willing to lose. But I like it to win.
My final play for now is putting some on the Under 54. Again, not crazy about it, but think it has a shot.
The other play I have not started playing, and will continue to shop around. What I'm thinking:
I'm coming back w/ a much less on largest lead under 18 prop. Yes you can't bet as much on these props, so I'm planning on putting this in at a couple of shops.
I can win both bets if this is a NE win and it's not by a crazy margin. There is a chance (always is) that NE wins by 20 or 21 or maybe more. Which is why I'm wagering (to win) double on NE ML. I don't think I can lose both. I will be shocked if NYG get a lead of 20 and win. I will be equally shocked if NE is up by 20 or more and then blow the game and lose.
I won't discuss my personal amounts wagered. I'll use a fictional "X" to show you the approx % I am putting on one play vs. the other. But my strategy here is this:
Have already played:
12X to win 3X on NE ML
(Have bet and will continue to bet as close to -400 as I can get)
.2X to win .2X on the Under 54
(Small amount for what I think has a decent shot)
May play:
I have contemplated getting "cute" and playing:
X to win 1.1X on Largest Lead Under 18
(This is a possible middle attempt, and I like this much more than laying -220 to get NYG +17.5)
The problem is, I'm not a "cute" bettor and this play would essentially be a "buy back" on my NE ML position. If NYG win, the game will be close and instead of losing 12X, I'd only lose 10.8X. May not seem like much w/ the amounts I'm looking at totaling on this ML play, but it will help out should that "5%" chance that NYG wins comes through.
There is a chance I will also put some on NE minus the points, but I would probably rather either put it on the ML or put it on an alt spread giving me + juice.
Parting Words
NE ML. Yes, you have to lay 4 times the amount you want to win. Laying -400 juice does that to you. But again, if you were looking at NE ML as if it was a true -12 point line, you'd be laying between 33X and 42X just to win 3X. Here you only have to lay 12X.
For me, a winning day is a winning day. I'm lining myself up to be very satisfied w/ a profit of 3X knowing that I have 12X on the line.
Would I love to lay NE -12.5 for +100 and put X on and win X? Sure. Maybe even put 2X to win 2X on it. But would I feel as confident in this play when I've got -400 on the ML available?
Again, I can still put some on the spread, the week is still young, but I feel much better having it on the ML. But for now, I'm very comfortable w/ my bets thus far, and look forward to increasing my amounts on NE ML if I can get a better price closer to the game.
I hope you really took the time to look at these tables and draw your own conclusions. I look forward to hearing your feedback.
Hopefully you don't just think "duh", NE ML is so obvious. Unless you studied the ML prices and looked at NE's previous performances in the playoffs, I think it's slightly less obvious. Having looked at the prices, I think ML is a must here. Play NE on the spread if you want to , but I'd put some on ML too, just in case.
If you are a NYG bettor, tell me what you think about the Largest Lead Under 18. I'm strongly considering that bet in hopes of winning both it and NE ML, and should I only win NE ML, I'd still be up quite nicely.
Good luck to whatever you choose to do, and I hope you take something more away from this post than my plays. I hope the information I presented has shown you something or taught you something that you may not have known or considered.
