2008 Playoff Packages

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The 2008 NFL Postseason is almost upon us. My record the past several years has been tremendous:

Playoff Results, Last 3 Years
Fully Documented!!

07-08: 10-4 (71%)
06-07: 6-2 (75%)
05-06: 16-2 (89%)

Last 3 Years Combined: 32-8 (80%)

Purchase Plays HERE!

For Detailed Results, Write-ups and the Link to the 16-2 Documented Record from 2005-06, Click HERE.

Playoff Detail

By Round (All Years Combined):

• Wild Card round 12-2 (86%)
• Divisional round 10-4 (71%)
• Conference Championship round 6-0 (100%)
• Super Bowl 3-1 (75%)

By Year:

07-08:

• Wild Card round I went 5-1
• Divisional round I went 4-2
• Conference Championship round I went 1-0
• Superbowl I went 0-1

Therefore in 07-08, I went 10-4 overall (71%), and my system did pretty well also, going 3-0 in system overs. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, but did not do any detailed writeups for them.

06-07:

• Wild Card round I went 4-0 (Link to one of my writeups)
  
• Divisional round I went 0-2
• Conference Championship round I went 1-0 and in addition, issued a very large play prior to the game on Ind to win the SB at +150 odds (Link to writeup)
  
• Superbowl, therefore, I had Ind+150 ML very large, 1-0
  

Therefore in 06-07, I went 6-2 overall (75%). Note that I did advise putting a very small amount on Chi+ points as a slight middle opportunity for the SB, but a much smaller amount than was on Ind+150 ML. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, and made two writeups, which are linked to above.

05-06:

The other verifiable postseason results were in 05-06. In the 2006 postseason, I participated in the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. (Link to Verify)

I was 15-1 on sides and totals up until the Superbowl, where I liked the Steelers and the Under. I played the Steelers but waited to play the total until I saw that I could guarantee the #1 position before the game even started if I made the same totals play as the #2 participant, which was the Over. Therefore, I took the Over. The Steelers won SU and ATS, and the game went Under. As a result, instead of finishing 17-1 (94%) I went 16-2 (89%), but enjoyed the game much more knowing I was already crowned the Champion. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of the Wagerline contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Week 16 Plays are NOW AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE

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Week 16 Plays which are Now Available for purchase:

• 3 ATS Computer System Plays
• 2 Unders Computer System Plays
• 3 Weather Alert Plays

The Weather Plays (1-0 thus far in 08) are vital to get immediately, as these lines likely will continue to shift.
Personal Plays will be available on Friday night or Saturday morning!

Proceed to www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/purchase.html to purchase

Week 15 Results and Playoff Results

Very subpar Week 15 based on my high standards:

All Week 15 Plays Combined went 5-5-1 (50%), and drops me now to 23-10-1 (70%) on all plays released the last 3 weeks.

• 2-3-1 Personal/Weather Plays brings the YTD mark to 36-18-2 (67%) YTD
• 1-1 Overs Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 10-4 (71%) YTD and 31-5 (86%) the L2 Years
• 2-1 Unders Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 29-13-2 (69%) YTD
• 1-2 ATS Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 42-22-1 (66%) YTD

(There was overlap in the plays which accounts for the individual plays not totaling to 5-5-1. For instance, my 2 ATS Computer System Losses (Bal and NYG) both became personal plays, so those losses were counted twice, once in my ATS Computer System and once on my Personal/Weather plays.)

This was the first sub-.500 week in personal plays since Week 7, when I went 1-2 in personal plays. I rebounded in the next two weeks, Weeks 8 and 9, going 4-1-2 (80%) in personal plays, and will be working as hard as always to have the same rebound results to close out the regular season in Weeks 16 and 17.


I was asked how I have performed in the POSTSEASON, and since it is getting close, I thought I would share my results.

Playoff Summary, Last 3 Years

07-08: 10-4 (71%)
06-07: 6-2 (75%)
05-06: 16-2 (89%) - note, I played most every side/total for every game as it was for a Contest, see below.

Last 3 Years Combined: 32-8 (80%)

Playoff Detail

07-08:

• Wild Card round I went 5-1
• Divisional round I went 4-2
• Conference Championship round I went 1-0
• Superbowl I went 0-1

Therefore in 07-08, I went 10-4 overall (71%), and my system did pretty well also, going 3-0 in system overs. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, but did not do any detailed writeups for them.

06-07:

• Wild Card round I went 4-0 (Link to one of my writeups)
  
• Divisional round I went 0-2
• Conference Championship round I went 1-0 and in addition, issued a very large play prior to the game on Ind to win the SB at +150 odds (Link to writeup)
  
• Superbowl, therefore, I had Ind+150 ML very large, 1-0
  

Therefore in 06-07, I went 6-2 overall (75%). Note that I did advise putting a very small amount on Chi+ points as a slight middle opportunity for the SB, but a much smaller amount than was on Ind+150 ML. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, and made two writeups, which are linked to above.

05-06:

The other verifiable postseason results were in 05-06. In the 2006 postseason, I participated in the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. (Link to Verify)

I was 15-1 on sides and totals up until the Superbowl, where I liked the Steelers and the Under. I played the Steelers but waited to play the total until I saw that I could guarantee the #1 position before the game even started if I made the same totals play as the #2 participant, which was the Over. Therefore, I took the Over. The Steelers won SU and ATS, and the game went Under. As a result, instead of finishing 17-1 (94%) I went 16-2 (89%), but enjoyed the game much more knowing I was already crowned the Champion. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of the Wagerline contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Week 15 Plays are Now Available for Purchase

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So far I have posted on my website:

• 3 ATS Computer System Plays 41-20-1 (68%) YTD
• 2 Overs Computer System Plays 9-3 (75%) YTD and 30-4 (88%) the L2 Years!
  
• 3 Unders Computer System Plays 27-12-2 (69%) YTD

Along with a large amount of analysis and weather related information. This is the first time in 3 weeks that the Overs system has produced a play and it gave us two this week.

My Personal Plays which are 34-15-2 (69%) YTD will be Updated on Friday Night.

Only 3 weeks left in the regular season, and my plays have been very solid all year, but especially impressive the last several weeks:

For the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

I went 3-1 (75%) in Personal Plays last week and was 8-3 (73%) overall and was 10-2 (83%) in Week 13.

Please visit: www.sharpfootballanalysis/purchase.html to purchase all my Week 15 plays for only $15!

Remarkable 8-3 (73%) Week 14!!

After hitting on MNF, I improved to 3-1 for Personal Plays! Week 14 Results:

3-1 (75%) Personal Plays brings the mark to 34-15-2 (69%) YTD
4-1 (80%) Unders Computer System Plays brings the mark to 27-12-2 (69%) YTD
1-1 (50%) ATS Computer System Plays brings the mark to 41-20-1 (67%) YTD

Overall Week 14 Results: 8-3 (73%)

Plays generated from my computer system: 5-2 (71%)

All three losses were by fewer than 3 points ATS! One game was lost by 2.5 points ATS, the other was lost by 2 points ATS, and the third was lost by 1 points ATS. I have heard from a couple clients who "tease" my plays, and therefore went undefeated!

In total, 11 plays were released, weekly subscription is only $15, therefore each play was just $1.36 and they hit 73%!!!

This on the back of a 10-2 (83%) Week 13 and a 9-5 (64%) Week 12.

Therefore for the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

I have posted 2 writeups from the plays I shared w/ my clients on the main page of my website. This is the first time since Week 9 that I am letting you take a peak at what I offer in terms of methodical, detailed and thorough analysis and write-ups. To view these, simply click: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Incredible "Computer System Sweep" Week 13 for Sharp Football Analysis!!

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My computer system plays were dialed in this week. System Unders went 4-0 (100%), System ATS went 2-0 (100%) w/ two underdogs, 1 of which won SU, and since there were no computer generated Overs (not enough value) I posted the two largest leans, and both hit for 2-0 (100%)!

That totals to 6-0 for official systems plays, and 2-0 for overs leans, for an
8-0 (100%) Major Computer System Sweep!

Personal plays went 3-2 (60%) with 1 of the losses by 1 point ATS (TB-4).

Week 13 Results:
3-2 (60%) Personal Play brings the mark to 31-14-2 (69%) YTD
2-0 (100%) Overs System "leans" do not add to the mark of 9-3 (75%) YTD and still 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!
4-0 (100%) Unders System plays brings the mark to 23-11-2 (68%) YTD
2-0 (100%) ATS system plays brings the mark to 40-19-1 (68%) YTD

Overall Week 13 posted plays: 10-2 (83%)

The Overs system (my strongest and most accurate computer system) is still an incredible 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!

Tremendous Week 12 Results

Tremendous Week 12 for Sharp Football Analysis:

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) and totals went 5-1 (83%) including the two Overs plays that went 2-0 (100%).

This brings the Overs system (my strongest and most accurate computer system) to a record of 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!

Week 12 Results:
2-1 (67%) Personal Play brings the mark to 28-12-2 (70%) YTD
2-0 (100%) Overs System plays Sweep brings the mark to 9-3 (75%) YTD
3-1 (75%) Unders System plays brings the mark to 19-11-2 (63%) YTD
2-3 (40%) ATS system plays brings the mark to 38-19-1 (67%) YTD

The recommendation to take Houston +3 also hit on the ML, which is not part of the tally above.

Week 12 Plays

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On my website, I currently have:

4 ATS Computer System Plays which are 36-16-2 ATS (69%) so far this season
2 Overs System Plays which are 7-3 (70%) so far this season
4 Unders System Plays which are 16-10-2 (62%) so far this season

I will post my personal plays, which are 26-11-2 ATS (70%), on Friday evening.

To view the plays, visit the website.

Week 11 Summary

Week 11 involved two losses which we'll bounce back from but were very difficult to swallow at the time. The first was the Over in the TB/Min game. The second was the Steelers game, stolen by the referees.

The only 4pm game we had was completely robbed from us. The Steelers game ended in what should have been a cover, and the ref admitted his mistake in taking the TD off the board (Click for Link) Not to mention the 13-1 penalty advantage for SD, or the fact that the only SD TD was due to a phantom pass interference call on the Steelers. The Steelers had double the yards on the game (410 to 213) and had 13 more minutes in time of possession. But it wasn't just a bad beat, it was a stolen game by the official, which makes it so tough.

What makes it even more difficult to take is the fact the ref's decision came:

A. 10 minutes after the game was over
B. After the points were on the board
C. After an official review so they had a chance to make sure they were right
D. After decision from the booth which would allow the play to stand
E. After a 2nd officials huddle that then ignored booth review and provided a wrong ruling

Also factor the fact that they removed the points from the board 10 minutes after the game was over, and then seconds later, the official openly admitted that what he did was wrong and the TD should have stood.

But even before that game, the TB/Min Over play was the definition of a bad beat. The two teams needed to put up over 38.5 points to win the play. They put up 32, so all we needed was 1 more TD to cover. Anyone who didn't watch the game probably thought it was a defensive struggle. But the reality was TB marched the ball up the field with ease time and time again, getting inside the Minnesota 20 on five occasions, but walked away with only 1 TD to show for it. Want more? How about the fact that the teams COMBINED for THREE PUNTS!!! TB only punted once! Min only punted twice!

More to make you sick: Here are drives where TB advanced the ball into Min territory only to kick FGs or fumble:

TB reached the -
Min 37 - TB turnover on downs
Min 17 - TB FG
Min 3 - TB FG
Min 30 - TB fumble
Min 10 - TB FG
Min 8 - TB FG
Min 23 - TB missed FG
Min 28 - TB kneel down - end of game

I was sick to my stomach after that terrible performance. We got the TB cover, but it was closer than it ever should have been. TB dominated that game in every respect, but was totally worthless once in scoring range. Which was quite surprising, considering prior to this game, Minnesota's defense was in the bottom half of red zone efficiency, allowing a TD on 56% of trips inside the red zone. TB was inside 5 times and came away with only 1 TD, and was inside the 30 (for a 47 yd FG or closer) on two other occasions and walked away with zero points.

Normally I don't dwell on the bad beats, but to have two in one day, one of which was a pure robbery and the other would be impossible to believe if you read the stats I just listed above and then looked at the final score of the game. It took these outcomes to provide the first ATS computer system losing weekend of the season, finishing 2-3 ATS instead of 3-2, due to the Steelers game. Rest assured, I am not forgetting that fact and will be working harder than ever this week to ensure we get back on track and reestablish the record I earned up to this point.

Week 10 Summary

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What a terrific way to start out my new website: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Week 10 was one of many great weeks here at Sharp Football Analysis, but was especially rewarding given the customers who joined and participated in my first weekend of plays, and I was pleased to reward them.

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) on the day, with solid winners on NYJ and NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my Personal Plays to 25-10-2 (71%). And I am now 6-2-2 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

ATS System Plays VERY strong, going 3-1 ATS with winners on KC, Atl, NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my ATS Computer System Plays to 34-13-1 (72%). And I am now 10-5-1 (67%) the last 3 weeks.

Overs System also did well. One play was moved off the board on Saturday due to potential inclement weather in Chicago (but nearly went over the total even with poor conditions). The only remaining Overs System play, NYG/Phi Over 43, went over with ease, hitting 44 with 11:24 left to go in the 3rd quarter, an easy over. Last season, many of these top plays went over soon after halftime.

That brings the YTD mark for the Overs System to 7-2 (78%), and is now 3-0 (100%) the last 4 weeks.

Unders System underperformed, going 2-3 in Week 10 (40%), though I did warn on Wednesday about the NO/Atl total being the highest on the board (those games seem to go over more than under).

That brings the YTD mark for the Unders System to 14-8-1 (64%) and is now 9-3-1 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

You can sign up NOW for the season long pass for a 20% discount or you can wait until Wednesday to sign up for just Week 11!!

Important Announcement from Sharp Football Analysis

Thank you for your interest in my website and newsletter for the first 9 weeks of the 2008 NFL season. For over half the season, I provided completely free plays and analysis which, of course, took up a lot of my personal time. Much more than you perhaps can imagine. My write-ups are detailed and come from hours of research, and my computer system is going strong as it has for the past several years. And for over half the season, if you followed my plays, you would be doing very well. 23-9-2 (72%) in all plays I e-mailed out. If you decided to use my plays to legally bet on the games:

A $25/game bettor should be up $328 so far this year.
A $50/game bettor should be up $655 so far this year.
A $100/game bettor should be up $1,310 so far this year.
A $250/game bettor should be up $3,275 so far this year.

I know I have mentioned this before, but of all the tout services who are monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, there is NOT A SINGLE ONE (thru Week 8 Results as Week 9 Results are not posted yet) who has released 30+ plays and is hitting 72% for the season. Yet that is what I have been able to accomplish, with assistance from my system, my research databases, and my hard work each and every week so far this season.

Other touts charge a fair price for their plays. If you found my site through Fox Sports Radio, you know they have a famous handicapper on their show. What you may not know is that he charges $119 for just one week of his plays.

Other touts charge $65+ for one single game. It would be one thing if they won at a very high rate. Unfortunately, the vast majority of professionals are much better marketers and professional harassers than they are quality handicappers.

I have read the e-mails sent by people offering to donate money and I have never replied to them. I was doing this for free and enjoyed helping people out. But what I found was: people always want more. They were not satisfied with just getting my personal plays, which did go 4-1-2 the past 2 weeks (80%) and 72% for the season. I suppose I don't blame them for wanting my system plays and analysis of those plays because my system's record has been very solid thus far. ATS my system has produced 44 plays since week 4, just over 7 per week, and has hit 72%. My totals systems have again been producing superb results (see records below). However, when trying to figure out the logistics of such an operation, it was a difficult challenge: I currently send out about 3 e-mails a week. If I added system plays to my mailings, we would have 4 and at times 5, depending on weather related plays. It is a fair amount of work to type up these and send them to the many people from the several e-mail addresses I have. I also posted my plays on my website and then on message boards, all of which took up a lot of my time. So writing up my system plays and sending those out would certainly add more time to my already busy schedule. And would be in addition to the most important things: running my system, performing research, selecting my top plays and providing write-ups.

After much thought and consideration, I decided to do the following:

I started a website, and paid for hosting and support. It is:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

I now have a new e-mail address: sharp@sharpfootballanalysis.com (but you can always contact me as a backup at my old sharpfootballanalysis@gmail.com )

The plan going forward is as follows:

You can essentially purchase "access" to a single page within my website which I will update throughout the week. You can being viewing this page on Wednesdays of each week, when I will have my system plays posted. I will then add a brief comment on the plays and any information I think you should know at the time, including which plays I would be leery of playing yet due to injuries. I will still be providing my "personal plays" either on Friday evening or Saturday morning, as well as Sunday and Monday updates. This week Thursday games start in the NFL, so any insights or plays for Thursday night will be posted on Thursdays. After Monday, you will need to purchase "access" for another week. I also post weather plays and will post those at any point in time starting on Wednesday.

So, what kinds of plays will you get over the course of one week?

• Personal Plays - 23-9-2 (72%) YTD - Typically the top 3 or 4 ATS Plays per week and strong totals selections. The number of selections may vary week to week but on average it has been 3. All personal plays will include write-ups of varying length and are supported by hours of research. For Sunday games, these will be issued on Friday evening or Saturday morning, with an update on Sunday morning. For Thursday and Monday games, any plays will be issued on game day.

• ATS Computer System Plays - 31-12-1 (72%) YTD - Usually approximately 5 to 7 plays per week, these are released on Wednesday and are generated by my computer system. The goal for you, the user, is to find the best line possible between Wednesday and kickoff. Usually, unpopular underdogs are best played closer to kickoff and popular favorites are be best played earlier in the week.

• Totals Computer System Plays - my computer system usually generates a number of rated totals plays on a weekly basis. The strongest of these plays have come from the "Top Totals System" which may release only one play a week or less and is typically a targeted Overs play. That system went 21-1 last season and is 6-2 (75%) this season. Other totals systems generate additional plays, Overs and Unders. All totals plays will be released on Wednesday.

• Weather Alert Plays - these plays generally occur in the colder months in more Northern states, though there could be a weather play in any location predicted to experience inclement weather. Plays last year included games in Pittsburgh, New England, Seattle and Chicago to name a few cities. I study weather from a variety of lesser-known specialty sources and typically issue these plays mid-late week, as the weather systems become more defined. Getting on these totals early, before the general public is aware of the weather situation, is the most important goal. Not all plays with inclement weather will be played. The goal, as always, is to find those that have the most value. These plays will be issued whenever they arise, anytime after Wednesday.

Of course, all personal plays will come with my in depth research, trends and analysis, each and every week. While perhaps not as convenient as checking your e-mail to find my plays, I think it will be quite easy to check one single page each and every week that gets updated to add my plays, insight, and analysis I have to share with you. You won't have to wonder what my system plays are, you won't have to wonder exactly when the e-mail will go out, and you will have the easy ability to contact me should any problems arise.

I have decided to do all of this for only $15 per week. A $25 bettor should have already made $328 so far this year on my plays, and $15 is only 4.5% of that. $15 is only 2% of what a $50 has made on my plays, and is only 1% of what a $100 bettor has made on my plays.

Again, you are not paying $15 for 3 "personal plays" per week. You will be getting all my system plays, which include totals and ATS, as well as my write-ups, trends and information. The goal is not just to provide winning plays. If that was the case, I could just tell you 3 teams to take a week. The goal is to also teach you about my handicapping methods and help you learn how to spot good situations, and equally as important, when to back down from forcing a play.

My system records from this season and prior seasons are posted below. As you know, past results do not guarantee future success, and I have indicated several times on the website that I in no way guarantee any plays or outcome, nor do I guarantee a certain level of success the rest of the season. The only thing I can tell you is that my system is what it is, it has done very well, I have not changed anything and I will continue to work as hard as I can towards achieving results which meet and exceed my own high standards.

Therefore, this is the last official newsletter from my gmail address and I hope you enjoyed the plays and information I provided free of charge for the first 9 weeks of the season. I hope I can continue to provide high quality service and winning plays to you at http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com and have enjoyed helping you learn and benefit from my plays for over half the season.

Thank you,
Sharp

2008 - 2009 Results thru Week 9:

Personal Plays: 23-9-2 (72%)

System Plays:

ATS System Plays: 31-12-1 (72%)
Top Overs Plays: 6-2 (75%)
Overs #2 Plays: 12-9 (59%)
Unders Plays: 12-5 (71%)

2008 Note: ATS System Plays were simplified and combined to provide for easier following since 2007.

2007-2008 Results:

Personal Plays: 58-36-3 (62%)

System Plays:

Top Overs Plays: 21-1 (95%)
Overs #2 Plays: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)

2007 Note: System was further developed and additional types of plays were generated since 2006.

2006-2007 Results:

System Plays:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006 Results:

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Note on Records:

System records from 2007-2008 were and posted on message boards online on a weekly basis for verification, as were all personal plays. Personal plays from 2008-2009 were posted on message boards and e-mailed to subscribers on a weekly basis. System plays from weeks 7-9 were sent to Fox Sports Network's "First Team on Fox" for validation, during which they went 11-6-1 ATS (65%).

Past results will not guarantee future perfomance.

MNF

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First a side note: Please check your e-mail tomorrow (Tuesday) as I will be sending out important information regarding my system plays and personal plays for Week 10.

As for MNF:

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you or persuade you.

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched.

System:

Side: Redskins, winning by 5
Total: I've got a predicted line in my top system of 41.5. It is very close to a play but is a fraction off being recognized as a top play, however, only if you get the Over 36.5. If you can only get 37 it would not be as close to a play on the over (obviously). Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5.

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith. For the Skins, will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hardhitting home loss to the defending superbowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, that remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

For the Redskins:

• In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
• In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.
• Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.
• Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
• Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.
• The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.
• The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.
  

• Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).
• In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS
• Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

For the Steelers:

• Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog
• The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.
• Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.
• The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.
  

Week 9 Review

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A very solid 2-1 (67%) day. Both underdog plays won outright and the Ten play lost by 1 point ATS. Putting my mark to 23-9-2 (72%) ATS for the season. The 6 system plays I have released the last two weeks (3 last week and 3 this week) went 4-1-1 ATS (80%). Extremely strong results the last 2 weeks from the top plays (in my opinion) from my computer system.

The five computer system plays I sent to Czaban on Thursday went 3-2 (60%) for Week 9, putting my 3 week stretch of sending them my computer system plays to an impressive 11-5-1 (69%) mark.

The only good thing about the 1 point ATS loss by Ten was that those who teased my plays, which I have heard back from a couple of you, enabled you guys to go undefeated so congrats on your wins.

I do have a computer system play for the game tonight, and will complete my evaluation today to determine if I want to include it as a personal play, and send out what I've got later today.

Congrats to all who have followed my plays for the first 9 weeks of this season. Hitting 72% on 34 releases is as solid as can be, but I still think I can do even better. And my computer system certainly has been leading me in the right direction and has produced extremely impressive results itself, and those who have been asking for my computer system plays the last few weeks, your wish may be granted sooner than you think.

2008 Week 9 Plays

2008 Week 9 Plays:

Mia +3.5
Ten -4
Bal +1.5

Writeups:

Mia+3.5

• Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)
• I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.
• Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.
• Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.
• After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.
• After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.
• I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.
• This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.
  

I also want to dispel the myth that teams who took a beating the week before the bye come back w/ a vengeance the following game.

• Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.
  

If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that Denver of the past 3 seasons is not the Denver you knew from the 90s with Elway and Davis, or even the Denver from early 2000s w/ Plummer and Portis. In my research, the main stat that seems to support Denver is that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 SU off their bye week under Shanahan. Definitely impressive, and something to be strongly considered AND further investigated. One thing you should know is regular Sunday afternoon games are bet much differently than MNF games, so first we need to eliminate the two MNF games (1 ATS W, 1 ATS L). Second, you should realize that divisional games are different from non-divisional games. Different feel, different energy when playing a twice-a-year rival vs. a team from across the country that you haven't played in 3 years.

So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.

Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where game time temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.

Ten -4

First before trends, I want to get into a little lesson I will call: The "Myth of the Rested vs. Unrested team" a.k.a the "Myth of the Short Week vs. the Bye Week team"

We have one team who is off a MNF appearance and the other team was on a bye last week, resting and getting healthy. One team has 8 more days of rest, and if you consider that the players don't actually get home until Tuesday morning MNF games, you could argue 9 more days of rest and preparation. So how has it affected teams? Shouldn't the team w/ the rest and relaxation and preparation dominate?

• All teams in this situation, off MNF, whose opponent had a bye, are 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS since 2003.
• In non-divisional matchups, they are 10-3 SU and ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS since last season.
• If they play at home, they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, convering an average 5 point line by 7 points and winning SU by 12.
• If they are home favorites, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS covering an average 5.5 point line by 8 points.

So as you can see, anyone who wants to play Green Bay solely because they are rested off a bye and primed to upset a team on a short week, needs to consider other reasons why they think GB can win. On to the trends:

• Undefeated teams after week 6 who just played on MNF and covered in the win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 the following week since 1990. The only non-cover was the Colts by 14 over the Texans, when the spread was -17.
• Teams who won on MNF by 10+ points and are favored the next week by between 4 and 7 points are 9-3 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 6 points and winning SU by an average of 12 points since 2002.
• The Titans are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after facing the Colts. They only beat the Colts once, and were 1-0 ATS in their next game.
• If it is the first matchup w/ the Colts, the Titans come out even stronger the following week, going 3-0 ATS and SU, and covering the spread by an average of 18 points. However, all three games they were underdogs, something very important to consider.
• Teams who won in upset fashion as a home underdog prior to the bye and now are road underdogs after the bye are 0-6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS since 2003, losing SU by an average of 14 points.
• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are facing a non-divisional opponent as a favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• Another trend I have favors Ten and is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS dating back to 1990 and is 5-0 since 2002, tallying up exactly 1 win per season with the exception of not applying for a game in 2004. While not blowouts, the teams did cover an average 4 point and won SU by an average of 9 points.
  

Tennessee has only played 1 game on a short week following MNF in the last 4 years, and they lost SU and ATS. But don't read into that. It was a game in Cincy last year, where Ten was without Albert Haynesworth for the third game in a row, they were a mere 5-5 SU and had lost their 2nd straight on Monday IN DENVER and then played IN CINCY on the short week, they only rushed the ball for A TOTAL OF 61 yards, Vince Young threw for 0 TDs and 1 Int, and Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson was what we remember them to be, w/ CJ catching 3 TDs and 100+ yds and Cincy even rushed for 148 yards! Nothing could be further removed from the 7-0 Titans this season and the situation they face this week: playing back to back home games (not road games).

The last three seasons, bye week teams have performed extraordinary across the board, covering in 62% of their games after a bye since 2005. However, road underdog bye week teams are not performing nearly as well, hitting only 46% since 2005, and are a poor 5-9 ATS since 2007 (including 2-3 ATS in 2008). If the road underdog off a bye has a line of more than +3 but not double digits, they are 2-7 ATS since 2007 and 1-8 SU, failing to cover an average +7 point line by 11 points and losing SU by 18.

This game is one that pits people fading the undefeated team off a short week (which, by the way, these undefeated teams off MNF are actually 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU as a favorite after week 6) and are riding with a team who defeated the same Colts by a larger margin the week before. I, however, will stack my chips with Ten and will pull for a 5 point win for the cover.

Bal+1.5

• Following a season in which they finished at or below .500, the Ravens are 9-1-2 ATS as a divisional underdog the following season since 1999, covering ATS by 7 points on average.
• Following a season in which they finished better than .500, the Browns are 1-6 ATS as a divisional favorite the following season since 1995.
• Divisional home favorites of a FG or less who had a winning record last season and won last week against a divisional foe with a losing record last season are 1-7-1 ATS and 2-7 SU since 1999.
• Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2003 after playing 3 straight non-divisional opponents and then facing a divisional opponent in a sandwich game (non-divisional opponent up next).
  
• Under the same rules, Baltimore is 4-2 ATS.
  

This game will come down to turnover margin. So I'll do a quick turnover analysis:

In the Colts game, Flacco threw 3 Ints and Baltimore had 2 fumbles lost, and received zero turnovers from the Colts, for a -5 margin. Baltimore, as you know, lost badly. In the 6 games where Baltimore had 1 or 2 turnovers (they have always turned the ball over at least once), they are 4-2 SU. Ignoring the road game in Indy, in Baltimore's two other road games (@ Pit and @ Mia), Baltimore only committed 1 turnover in each game and went 2-0 ATS. Flacco has shown just enough for me to not be leery enough to shy away from this bet. He hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't been a consistent turnover machine, either.

Cleveland also lost when turning the ball over 3+ times (in Bal earlier this year) but has not shown consistency when not turning the ball over. In their two games w/ 2 turnovers, they are 1-1 SU, and in their 4 games with zero turnovers they are 2-2 SU. So the good news is they have committed zero turnovers in 4 games, but the bad news: preventing turnovers does not seem to be enough to get Cleveland consistent wins. Looking even more into it, Cleveland is 1-2 SU at home, and their only win was when they received 3 turnovers anc committed zero. When they received one or zero turnovers, they lost both home games. Looking at turnover margin: On the season, they are 2-0 SU with a turnover margin of +3. But they are 1-4 SU when their turnover margin is +1 to -2.

In comparison, the Ravens are 0-1 with a turnover margin of -5. But they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when the turnover margin is zero or -1 (in their favor by 1). Based on the turnover analysis, as well as my system stats and trend analysis, it seems Baltimore may have enough to get the win SU so long as they do not lose the turnover battle. In their first meeting, in Baltimore, despite two Flacco Ints, Anderson threw 3 for Cleveland and Baltimore won with ease. If you think Baltimore can say even w/ Cleveland and not force Flacco to win the game w/ his arm (and thus reduce his liklihood of throwing Ints), Baltimore is a solid bet this weekend. The Browns are 3-5 SU and ATS since 2006 when the line is within a FG (+/-) if their opponent has a winning record. And how is this for a concluding trend:

Since 1995 (13.5 full seasons), the Browns have played 28 home games against divisional teams aside from the Bengals. They were home favorites in these games only 6 times! And their record as a divisional home favorite: 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS, losing SU on average by 11 points. And Cleveland has never been the home favorite in a divisional game (Cincy included) since 2004. In addition, Baltimore has been a divisional road underdog just once in a non-primetime game the last 3 years, and they won SU 31-7. I'm not about to tell you to load up on Baltimore, this is a game that will come down to turnovers and you never know exactly how the ball will bounce, but all things considered I do like Baltimore to cover the short line.

MNF Update, System Results and Weekend Summary

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MNF Update:

I did not release a play for MNF because I felt the game would be close. My system had a play, but I did not release it simply because, although there was value, I was seeing trends for Indy and envisioning scenarios where Ten would have a tougher time covering than my system thought. For 3 quarters, my hunch was right. But they broke the game open in the 4th.

My system had Ten winning by 9, therefore 5 points of value, and in my Thursday update to Steve Czaban, I included that game along w/ my other five system plays for the week (total of 6 ATS). The system win last night improved the system to 4-1-1 ATS for Week 8 (80%), and improved the mark for the system since it started in Week 4 to 28-9-1 ATS (76%). I will update the text below to include the up-to-date record.

________________________________________________________

System Results

A solid winning week here. Before I share a comment on the two pushes, I want to share how things are going w/ my computer system.

As I posted before, my computer system has been a guide to use in selecting plays. This week it was solid and worked out well. The 3 plays I did release to you from my system went 2-0-1 (Bal, Mia, NE). So we are back on track w/ me using it to pick winning plays.

I know a lot of you want to see all of the system plays and I respect that. For the past two weeks I have shared all my system plays with Steve Czaban and the First Team on FOX (great show and great bunch of guys, as you know).

What I do each week is I run the computer system, which provides a varitey of plays using different categories (top Home, top Dog, System #1, System #1, etc...) and then capture all the recommended ATS plays for the week. I then remove any play w/ key injury concerns (starting QB or RB primarily).

I know I posted this before, but since it started up for the year in Week 4, thru Week 6 (the week prior to sharing w/ the First Team), it went 20-6-1 (77%).

Week 7, as I sent to Czabe, it went 4-2 ATS (67%)
Week 8, this week, it went 4-1-1 ATS (80%)

So season to date, it has gone 28-9-1 ATS (76%), and in the two weeks I have shared it with them it has gone 8-3-1 (73%).

Two of the system generated plays I removed from this past week were KC+ and NO+, both due to injuries (KC was down to their 3rd string QB and RB Bush was out for NO). Both still won ATS (and NO won SU), but again, those do not count towards the record.

I also have two Overs systems, and two Unders systems. Historically my Overs hit better.

So far this season, my top Overs system (21-1 last year) is at 5-2 (71%).
My Overs system #2 won it's only selection on the weekend (NO/SD Over) and is at 11-6 (65%).
Last season my top overs system finished 95% and the second overs system finished at 79%.
My Unders systems historically get better later in the season, and this year looks to hold true. They were hitting 50% prior to this weekend, but went 4-0 this weekend and are now 9-5 (64%). Last season the unders finished at 58% and the season before at 66%.

I realize you guys would like to see all my plays, and I have considered it and just realize "it is under consideration". I wanted Czabe to track them and he can verify them to you. Again, I know this system works, it's worked for several years, and has not had a losing week at all so far this season.

However, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: My record so far this season, on picking games w/ the help of the system and releasing just a few games a week, has gone 21-8-2 (72%).

I can count on ZERO fingers the number of touts who are being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor who have released 30+ plays and are hitting above 72%.

There are many touts who are monitored by them, and they only post those who are above 50%. So when you look at their site and see it cut off at 50%, realize that there are numerous others below 50%. Per their grading sheet, there are 125+ services that are being tracked this season.

I want to bring this to your attention for a couple of reasons.

#1 - You guys want my system plays also, but doing things the way I have done them this season has resulted in a record that is unmatched by anyone I have seen tracked. 30+ plays and over 72%.

#2 - The majority of the touts who are being monitored release their plays for hundreds of dollars. Some guys release one single game for $70+ dollars! How much have you paid for my plays, which are doing better then theirs?

So yes, would you be winning even more if you had my system plays? Of course, they have done very well again this season. But I find it funny that some people still want to complain despite the fact that I am hitting at the rate I've been w/ my releases so far this season. Now, I will mention that if you have only followed my plays for a couple of weeks, you joined in at the worst possible time. But that was then. Absorbing two poor weeks, I am still 72% on the season, had an undefeated weekend in Week 8, and will look for the momentum to continue.

I also want you to realize it would be MUCH easier share a play by itself (no write-up) or a play with a generic writeup like many guys do. But I show you some trends and formulas I have, in addition to some statistical information. And you know if the play is backed by my computer system or not. I think it is a presentation that should not only help you make that single play, but my hope is you can learn from it and apply some of the trends or "line of thinking" towards your own handicapping in the future.

Please realize that I am not claiming to be the "best in the business", nor can I claim that I will hit 75% for the season or even that my future results will be as good as those YTD. But please tell me where you can get high percentage winning plays and write-ups/knowledge that you can actually learn from for 8 weeks so far this season? I don't know what will happen for Week 9, I can't predict if I have a winning week. But what I can tell you is I work as hard as I can and will continue as long as I keep at it to provide insight, analysis, and most of all, the best plays I can deliver.

_________________________________________________________

Weekend Summary

Now, I want to comment on some guys who ended up actually losing money on a undefeated week for me and for many who follow this site. I know the majority won this week, but I still will comment to those who did not:

The lines I post are the lines that are available online at the time of my newsletter. I sent out the plays FRIDAY AFTERNOON! That is plenty of time for you to get a good line. Anyone who could not get NE-7 either only has one shop and refused to buy to -7, or did not try hard enough. You generally should have several options when making a play:

1. Find the best line from a variety of outlets that you have. Maybe you can get the same line I post, maybe better, maybe worse.
2. Buy to whatever number you feel comfortable with.
3. Don't make a play.

#3 is the overriding point above all others. At any point I issue a play that you disagree with, no one is forcing you to make that play. Feel free to do whatever you want. If you can't get a solid line, again, feel free to not make a play. I can't tell you what to do if you only use a local and he's not at my number and he won't let you buy to it. I can't tell you what to do if you only use Pinnacle or The Greek (for example) and you can't get the number I post and don't want to buy to it.

But I can assure you, there is zero chance that I am simply posting a number that is not available online in order to tally up a win. I run my computer system on Tuesday. If I want, I can wager on plays whenever I want and use any choice of location to make the play. The point of this site is NOT to post plays that I can make. It is to help you guys make winning bets. For that reason, I post the line I can find at the time I send it out. Certainly, in many cases, lines move against me over the course of the week. I can get -6.5 -110 early in the week and by the time I e-mail it to you it's -7 -110. And maybe you don't make the play right away and you do so the next day and it's -7.5 -110. That is what happens to everyone in this business who releases plays to the public. But I'm not going to release -6.5 -110 if the line is now at -7.5. Those who have followed me for years know I don't play that game and never will.

There appears to be some confusion - my e-mail goes out on Friday or Saturday AM at the latest. I don't "post" the message on my website until Sunday. Therefore, if you are not getting the e-mail, of course you are not going to get these lines! And if you are just hanging out on the message boards on Sunday AM waiting for my post, you missed the whole boat. I've had some guys complain that by the time I posted the message on my website, the line was NE -8. If you got the e-mail I sent on Friday afternoon, it was -7. No one on this site should have waited until Sunday to play NE. No one.

Again, to reiterate, the the object of this site is for me to select games that hit at a high percentage for YOU, the follower, to win money on.

Carolina is another play that, at some places on Saturday, was -3.5 -110. On Sunday morning it was -4 at several places, and -4.5 at some others. I know it closed at -5 at many outlets, but again, I can't control what happens after I release a play. I won't release -4 unless I see some sites that have -4. If you have -4.5 or -5 and choose not to buy to -4, you really can't blame me for that. I'm not forcing you to buy down, nor am I forcing you to make a play at all.

To the guys who deal w/ local bookies who don't open shop until noon on Sunday(!!!), you already know this, but you won't be able to win much at that shop. Vegas lines already are shaded, and if you wait until the betting window is almost closed and the lines continue to move against you all week and all Sunday morning before you place your first wager, it is a recipe for disaster. Tim posted good advice in a comment from the previous post, so check that out.

It is unfortunate that this week we had two games of the four that had key numbers in the line and the game ended on those same key number. Anytime you have that situation, you are going to have a majority of pushes, and some losers and some winners. Yes, I have heard from guys who were able to go 4-0 this weekend due to buying points. Again, I don't recommend buying in general, as it forces your win % to increase in order to earn money. But there are occasions where it is wise and you can win if you are smart about it. The chances of another weekend where half of the plays I release push, and some people who get a worse line lose, are slim, but it may happen. I just ask for you to continue to use your best judgment and make sharp decision about your wagers and money management. After all, we all want to have more money at the end of the day than we started with.

Good luck and back later w/ MNF if I decide to release a play.

2008 Week 8 Plays

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2008 Week 8 Plays:

Bal-7
Mia +2
NE-7
Added Sunday: Car-4

Writeups:

Bal-7

• Since 2004, the Raiders are 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road as a non-divisional underdog of 7+ points, losing by an average of 18 points.
• Since 2003, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in non-divisional games w/ a total under 39 points.
• In the last 10 seasons, Oakland is 0-10 vs teams in the Eastern time zone, including 2-8 ATS, when being made a TD+ dog. On average they have failed to cover an avg 10 point line by 8 points and lost by 18.
• After a win as a home underdog and going on the road as an underdog, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992, including 0-2 ATS the last two years. On average, they have failed to cover a 7 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 15.
• Teams who won by 3 or less as home dogs last week and now are road dogs of 7+ are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in the last 10 seasons, on avg losing by 16.
• The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after winning on the road as an underdog and then being favored at home, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 2006. Their only non-cover was as 12.5 point favorites in a divisional game in 2006, which they won by 10.
  

Remarkably, this is the only home game the Ravens play in a span of 7 full weeks. They played at home Oct 5 vs. the Titans, and have been on back to back road games. After this game, they have 3 straight road games, not returning to play another home game until the weekend before Thanksgiving. At home, the Ravens hold opponents to 11 points and put up 18. The Ravens are a very good team at home, and although Flacco has had his share of problems against top defenses, he has performed much better at home. He put together a nice road game in Miami, and I look for him to build off of that in the friendly confines of his home stadium.

A little statistical analysis which I don't normally provide: Oakland, while ranking #7 in ypr offensively, is not strong a rush team as it seems. They are definitely above avg, but not #7 in the league. They have faced, in order, the #31, 32, 17, 18, 19 ranked rushing defenses in terms of ypr prior to last week. Last week they faced the NYJ, who are #4, and Fargas averaged only 2.6 ypr and McFadden totaled 39 yards. And that was at home, which Oak won by 3 in OT and scored only 1 TD, despite being +3 in turnover margin and in the NYJ red zone 3 times. On the road, in Baltimore, Oakland will need a much better effort from their running game, especially when Bal leads the NFL in TOP (33:45 per game). Oak is 31st in the NFL in 3rd down conversions. Oakland is 0-9 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road "sandwich games" (H-A-H). While Oakland performed very well in its first east coast game this season, I look for Baltimore to control the ball and the game, and will lay the touchdown.

Mia+2

• Buffalo is a mere 2-8 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite of less than 1 FG, including 0-4 SU and ATS since 1999.
• Divisional home dogs who are off back to back losses who face a team off a win and the line is less than a FG are 22-9 ATS since 1990. If the line is 1 or 1.5, the underdog is 12-3 ATS since 1990.
• In the first 12 weeks of the season, if one team has 3+ wins more than its opponent but is a road fav of less than 3 points, they are 2-9 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won SU by an average of 5 points.
• One other trend that Miami falls under has gone 26-8-1 ATS since 2002, including 16-2-1 ATS since 2005.
  

With the exception of the Houston loss, where Miami was up by 5 w/ 1:40 left and Hou drove the length of the field to win w/ 0:03 left, the three losses Miami had were to teams who were very solid against the run: Bal #1 ypr (allowed), NYJ #4 ypr, Ari #14 ypr. In addition, Ari was a road game and the 2nd game of the season. Miami has come a long way from week 2. Their victories have come against teams they can run the ball on, including NE #25 ypr (allowed) and SD #18 ypr.

Buffalo is #17 in the league in ypr allowed, right near SD. But on the road, they have faced Ari (#31 ypr), StL (#16 ypr, #25 ypg) and they got lucky to face Jac when all their O-Line was beaten up. Jac averaged less than 2 ypr in week 1 and against Buf week 2, 3.6 ypr. Chances are, Buffalo's overall ypr allowed would decrease even more if Jac had the same running game they have now. This will be the toughest test yet for Buffalo to stop Miami's rushing attack, which is not spectacular, but is averaging 112 ypg and 4.1 ypr, good for 16th in the league, despite facing Bal and NYJ, both in the top 4 for rushing defense allowed.

I see a 5-1 Buffalo team who is eager to get its first divisional game won, against a Miami team that is looking to stay above .500 and looking to prove that upstart Buffalo is not going to start the season 6-1 in their house. Miami is not as bad as the final score looked against Baltimore, in fact, teams who lost to the Ravens the week before and are now underdogs of less than 1 TD are 11-4 ATS since 2003. Baltimore simply makes teams look bad, especially teams who like to run the ball. It may not be the cleanest game of the day, but Miami certainly has the potential to win this game at home.

NE-7

• Teams who are off back to back underdog victories and are underdogs of 7+ points are 3-11-2 ATS since 1997 and 1-15 SU. On average they have lost by 14 points. If on the road, these teams are 0-14 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.
• Since 2006, teams on the road have gone 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 SU.
• Teams who have been underdogs of 7+ points for 3 weeks in a row but who are off a home upset win and now on the road are 0-10 SU since 1990, losing by an average of 16 points. If the line is not a double digit spread, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 20 points.
• Teams who won as 7+ point home underdogs the week before by benefiting by a +4 turnover ratio are 0-5 ATS when playing as 6+ road dogs the following week. On average, failing to cover a 7+ point line by an additional 9 and losing by 16.
  
• Since taking over New England, the Patriots have had 15 weekends where they played back to back home games without a bye in between. Of those 15, six were non-divisional home games not on MNF. The Patriots went 5-1 ATS, their only non-cover was a 10 point win as a 13 point favorite in 2006.
• NE also falls into another trend which is 20-6 ATS since 2002 and is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons, including 6-1 ATS last season. On average covering a 10 point line and winning SU by 18 points.

I won't get into all the details of how St. Louis pulled out two remarkable underdog upsets, but suffice it to say, turnovers played a HUGE role. St. Louis on the road this season has generated, wait for it, ONE touchdown on a drive that started in their own territory. And in fact, that ONE TD came in Seattle, a team who is giving up 29 ppg. At the Redskins, the Rams scored their lone TD on a 76 yard fumble return. They had zero TDs at Philly. So you could also say that the Rams have scored exactly ONE offensive TD on the road this season, against the hapless Seahawks.

Since 2007, the Rams average less than 13 points on the road. Their 3 wins ATS out of 11 games came when they won the turnover battle, getting 2+ turnovers more than their opponent. If you take out the 37-29 upset victory over the Saints last season to earn their first win, the Rams scored less than 10 ppg average in their other 10 road games the past two seasons.

As far as the Rams playing outdoors, they have been extremely fortunate. Not that the weather will be bad in NE at kick (60 degrees) but the last time the Rams played in a northern city that did not have a dome and it was Week 7 or beyond was Buffalo and GB in back to back weeks in 2004. They lost both, scoring 17 in each and allowing 37 vs. Buf and 45 vs. GB.

Fortunately for NE, Cassel has only thrown 1 Int in his 3 home games. NE certainly is no world beater and I can see angles, particularly turnovers, which could lead to St. Louis winning SU. However, if the game plays out the way on average that it should, I think NE earns a cover and wins by 10.

Sunday AM UPDATE:

In reviewing my totals, the top play from my top system (5-2 YTD) is TB/Dal O40.5, however, I cannot firmly recommend this one as a play. Primarily due to Brad Johnson as QB. If Dal had Romo, I think this game does hit over the total. However, w/ the Cowboys secondary being banged up, it may somewhat even things out. If you are more of a risk-taker and you believe this game can go over, feel free to take the play.

The other total I was considering is at a site experiencing high winds and so I won't issue that as a play (Pit/NYG Over 42).

So officially, no totals to be issued but I wanted to share the play from my 5-2 system anyways.

My additional side selection is NOT a system play, but it is a play from my analysis:

Car -4

• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are not facing a non-divisional opponent as a home favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• After winning a divisional game by 10+ points the prior week, Carolina has not let down under John Fox vs. a non-divisional opponent the following week. They are 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an avg score of 25-3 and all four games went under.
• Since 2003, Arizona is 1-12 ATS playing on the road as dog of less than 7 in games outside their division in the NFC and are 0-13 SU.

My System

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I am sure that most understand from reading THIS POST how my system operates and how I am using it. However, apparently some do not so I will attempt to clarify.

My system has nothing to do with trends and research. My system is a computer system I developed several years ago which I run each week and which shows me games that have value in the line, whether sides or totals. It generates a number of plays each week.

I then review these plays and spend 90% of my time researching them to determine which ones have the best opportunity to hit.

The trends I come up with and post as part of the play, those are all part of my research but have nothing to do with my system.

My system starts operating in Week 4. Prior to that, all of my plays were made using my own handicapping methods.

From Week 4 thru the present, all plays were made by:

#1 Running my computer system
#2 Creating a "short list" of those system plays with the most value
#3 Researching each play on the board to determine which games I wanted to rule off the short list, which ones I wanted to keep on the short list, and which games were not targeted by my computer system but I wanted to add to the short list.
#4 Analyzing the few games left on my short list and releasing only those which I thought had the largest likelihood of winning.

Therefore, the plays I have released from week 4 on may have come from my system, or may have been added. And obviously, there were many system plays which I did not release.

Again, the "goal" this season, as stated before, was to release only a few games a week that I thought had the highest probability to hit. It was more of a "request" to me and I took it on as a personal challenge.

It is for that reason and that reason alone that I have not posted all of my system plays like I did last season. My computer system, which has performed outstanding, is my primary resource and tool to generate my releases.

I hope that clarifies any questions regarding my computer system and my releases this year.