2008 Week 9 Plays

2008 Week 9 Plays:

Mia +3.5
Ten -4
Bal +1.5

Writeups:

Mia+3.5

• Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)
• I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.
• Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.
• Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.
• After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.
• After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.
• I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.
• This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.
  

I also want to dispel the myth that teams who took a beating the week before the bye come back w/ a vengeance the following game.

• Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.
  

If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that Denver of the past 3 seasons is not the Denver you knew from the 90s with Elway and Davis, or even the Denver from early 2000s w/ Plummer and Portis. In my research, the main stat that seems to support Denver is that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 SU off their bye week under Shanahan. Definitely impressive, and something to be strongly considered AND further investigated. One thing you should know is regular Sunday afternoon games are bet much differently than MNF games, so first we need to eliminate the two MNF games (1 ATS W, 1 ATS L). Second, you should realize that divisional games are different from non-divisional games. Different feel, different energy when playing a twice-a-year rival vs. a team from across the country that you haven't played in 3 years.

So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.

Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where game time temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.

Ten -4

First before trends, I want to get into a little lesson I will call: The "Myth of the Rested vs. Unrested team" a.k.a the "Myth of the Short Week vs. the Bye Week team"

We have one team who is off a MNF appearance and the other team was on a bye last week, resting and getting healthy. One team has 8 more days of rest, and if you consider that the players don't actually get home until Tuesday morning MNF games, you could argue 9 more days of rest and preparation. So how has it affected teams? Shouldn't the team w/ the rest and relaxation and preparation dominate?

• All teams in this situation, off MNF, whose opponent had a bye, are 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS since 2003.
• In non-divisional matchups, they are 10-3 SU and ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS since last season.
• If they play at home, they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, convering an average 5 point line by 7 points and winning SU by 12.
• If they are home favorites, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS covering an average 5.5 point line by 8 points.

So as you can see, anyone who wants to play Green Bay solely because they are rested off a bye and primed to upset a team on a short week, needs to consider other reasons why they think GB can win. On to the trends:

• Undefeated teams after week 6 who just played on MNF and covered in the win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 the following week since 1990. The only non-cover was the Colts by 14 over the Texans, when the spread was -17.
• Teams who won on MNF by 10+ points and are favored the next week by between 4 and 7 points are 9-3 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 6 points and winning SU by an average of 12 points since 2002.
• The Titans are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after facing the Colts. They only beat the Colts once, and were 1-0 ATS in their next game.
• If it is the first matchup w/ the Colts, the Titans come out even stronger the following week, going 3-0 ATS and SU, and covering the spread by an average of 18 points. However, all three games they were underdogs, something very important to consider.
• Teams who won in upset fashion as a home underdog prior to the bye and now are road underdogs after the bye are 0-6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS since 2003, losing SU by an average of 14 points.
• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are facing a non-divisional opponent as a favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• Another trend I have favors Ten and is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS dating back to 1990 and is 5-0 since 2002, tallying up exactly 1 win per season with the exception of not applying for a game in 2004. While not blowouts, the teams did cover an average 4 point and won SU by an average of 9 points.
  

Tennessee has only played 1 game on a short week following MNF in the last 4 years, and they lost SU and ATS. But don't read into that. It was a game in Cincy last year, where Ten was without Albert Haynesworth for the third game in a row, they were a mere 5-5 SU and had lost their 2nd straight on Monday IN DENVER and then played IN CINCY on the short week, they only rushed the ball for A TOTAL OF 61 yards, Vince Young threw for 0 TDs and 1 Int, and Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson was what we remember them to be, w/ CJ catching 3 TDs and 100+ yds and Cincy even rushed for 148 yards! Nothing could be further removed from the 7-0 Titans this season and the situation they face this week: playing back to back home games (not road games).

The last three seasons, bye week teams have performed extraordinary across the board, covering in 62% of their games after a bye since 2005. However, road underdog bye week teams are not performing nearly as well, hitting only 46% since 2005, and are a poor 5-9 ATS since 2007 (including 2-3 ATS in 2008). If the road underdog off a bye has a line of more than +3 but not double digits, they are 2-7 ATS since 2007 and 1-8 SU, failing to cover an average +7 point line by 11 points and losing SU by 18.

This game is one that pits people fading the undefeated team off a short week (which, by the way, these undefeated teams off MNF are actually 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU as a favorite after week 6) and are riding with a team who defeated the same Colts by a larger margin the week before. I, however, will stack my chips with Ten and will pull for a 5 point win for the cover.

Bal+1.5

• Following a season in which they finished at or below .500, the Ravens are 9-1-2 ATS as a divisional underdog the following season since 1999, covering ATS by 7 points on average.
• Following a season in which they finished better than .500, the Browns are 1-6 ATS as a divisional favorite the following season since 1995.
• Divisional home favorites of a FG or less who had a winning record last season and won last week against a divisional foe with a losing record last season are 1-7-1 ATS and 2-7 SU since 1999.
• Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2003 after playing 3 straight non-divisional opponents and then facing a divisional opponent in a sandwich game (non-divisional opponent up next).
  
• Under the same rules, Baltimore is 4-2 ATS.
  

This game will come down to turnover margin. So I'll do a quick turnover analysis:

In the Colts game, Flacco threw 3 Ints and Baltimore had 2 fumbles lost, and received zero turnovers from the Colts, for a -5 margin. Baltimore, as you know, lost badly. In the 6 games where Baltimore had 1 or 2 turnovers (they have always turned the ball over at least once), they are 4-2 SU. Ignoring the road game in Indy, in Baltimore's two other road games (@ Pit and @ Mia), Baltimore only committed 1 turnover in each game and went 2-0 ATS. Flacco has shown just enough for me to not be leery enough to shy away from this bet. He hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't been a consistent turnover machine, either.

Cleveland also lost when turning the ball over 3+ times (in Bal earlier this year) but has not shown consistency when not turning the ball over. In their two games w/ 2 turnovers, they are 1-1 SU, and in their 4 games with zero turnovers they are 2-2 SU. So the good news is they have committed zero turnovers in 4 games, but the bad news: preventing turnovers does not seem to be enough to get Cleveland consistent wins. Looking even more into it, Cleveland is 1-2 SU at home, and their only win was when they received 3 turnovers anc committed zero. When they received one or zero turnovers, they lost both home games. Looking at turnover margin: On the season, they are 2-0 SU with a turnover margin of +3. But they are 1-4 SU when their turnover margin is +1 to -2.

In comparison, the Ravens are 0-1 with a turnover margin of -5. But they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when the turnover margin is zero or -1 (in their favor by 1). Based on the turnover analysis, as well as my system stats and trend analysis, it seems Baltimore may have enough to get the win SU so long as they do not lose the turnover battle. In their first meeting, in Baltimore, despite two Flacco Ints, Anderson threw 3 for Cleveland and Baltimore won with ease. If you think Baltimore can say even w/ Cleveland and not force Flacco to win the game w/ his arm (and thus reduce his liklihood of throwing Ints), Baltimore is a solid bet this weekend. The Browns are 3-5 SU and ATS since 2006 when the line is within a FG (+/-) if their opponent has a winning record. And how is this for a concluding trend:

Since 1995 (13.5 full seasons), the Browns have played 28 home games against divisional teams aside from the Bengals. They were home favorites in these games only 6 times! And their record as a divisional home favorite: 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS, losing SU on average by 11 points. And Cleveland has never been the home favorite in a divisional game (Cincy included) since 2004. In addition, Baltimore has been a divisional road underdog just once in a non-primetime game the last 3 years, and they won SU 31-7. I'm not about to tell you to load up on Baltimore, this is a game that will come down to turnovers and you never know exactly how the ball will bounce, but all things considered I do like Baltimore to cover the short line.

MNF Update, System Results and Weekend Summary

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MNF Update:

I did not release a play for MNF because I felt the game would be close. My system had a play, but I did not release it simply because, although there was value, I was seeing trends for Indy and envisioning scenarios where Ten would have a tougher time covering than my system thought. For 3 quarters, my hunch was right. But they broke the game open in the 4th.

My system had Ten winning by 9, therefore 5 points of value, and in my Thursday update to Steve Czaban, I included that game along w/ my other five system plays for the week (total of 6 ATS). The system win last night improved the system to 4-1-1 ATS for Week 8 (80%), and improved the mark for the system since it started in Week 4 to 28-9-1 ATS (76%). I will update the text below to include the up-to-date record.

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System Results

A solid winning week here. Before I share a comment on the two pushes, I want to share how things are going w/ my computer system.

As I posted before, my computer system has been a guide to use in selecting plays. This week it was solid and worked out well. The 3 plays I did release to you from my system went 2-0-1 (Bal, Mia, NE). So we are back on track w/ me using it to pick winning plays.

I know a lot of you want to see all of the system plays and I respect that. For the past two weeks I have shared all my system plays with Steve Czaban and the First Team on FOX (great show and great bunch of guys, as you know).

What I do each week is I run the computer system, which provides a varitey of plays using different categories (top Home, top Dog, System #1, System #1, etc...) and then capture all the recommended ATS plays for the week. I then remove any play w/ key injury concerns (starting QB or RB primarily).

I know I posted this before, but since it started up for the year in Week 4, thru Week 6 (the week prior to sharing w/ the First Team), it went 20-6-1 (77%).

Week 7, as I sent to Czabe, it went 4-2 ATS (67%)
Week 8, this week, it went 4-1-1 ATS (80%)

So season to date, it has gone 28-9-1 ATS (76%), and in the two weeks I have shared it with them it has gone 8-3-1 (73%).

Two of the system generated plays I removed from this past week were KC+ and NO+, both due to injuries (KC was down to their 3rd string QB and RB Bush was out for NO). Both still won ATS (and NO won SU), but again, those do not count towards the record.

I also have two Overs systems, and two Unders systems. Historically my Overs hit better.

So far this season, my top Overs system (21-1 last year) is at 5-2 (71%).
My Overs system #2 won it's only selection on the weekend (NO/SD Over) and is at 11-6 (65%).
Last season my top overs system finished 95% and the second overs system finished at 79%.
My Unders systems historically get better later in the season, and this year looks to hold true. They were hitting 50% prior to this weekend, but went 4-0 this weekend and are now 9-5 (64%). Last season the unders finished at 58% and the season before at 66%.

I realize you guys would like to see all my plays, and I have considered it and just realize "it is under consideration". I wanted Czabe to track them and he can verify them to you. Again, I know this system works, it's worked for several years, and has not had a losing week at all so far this season.

However, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: My record so far this season, on picking games w/ the help of the system and releasing just a few games a week, has gone 21-8-2 (72%).

I can count on ZERO fingers the number of touts who are being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor who have released 30+ plays and are hitting above 72%.

There are many touts who are monitored by them, and they only post those who are above 50%. So when you look at their site and see it cut off at 50%, realize that there are numerous others below 50%. Per their grading sheet, there are 125+ services that are being tracked this season.

I want to bring this to your attention for a couple of reasons.

#1 - You guys want my system plays also, but doing things the way I have done them this season has resulted in a record that is unmatched by anyone I have seen tracked. 30+ plays and over 72%.

#2 - The majority of the touts who are being monitored release their plays for hundreds of dollars. Some guys release one single game for $70+ dollars! How much have you paid for my plays, which are doing better then theirs?

So yes, would you be winning even more if you had my system plays? Of course, they have done very well again this season. But I find it funny that some people still want to complain despite the fact that I am hitting at the rate I've been w/ my releases so far this season. Now, I will mention that if you have only followed my plays for a couple of weeks, you joined in at the worst possible time. But that was then. Absorbing two poor weeks, I am still 72% on the season, had an undefeated weekend in Week 8, and will look for the momentum to continue.

I also want you to realize it would be MUCH easier share a play by itself (no write-up) or a play with a generic writeup like many guys do. But I show you some trends and formulas I have, in addition to some statistical information. And you know if the play is backed by my computer system or not. I think it is a presentation that should not only help you make that single play, but my hope is you can learn from it and apply some of the trends or "line of thinking" towards your own handicapping in the future.

Please realize that I am not claiming to be the "best in the business", nor can I claim that I will hit 75% for the season or even that my future results will be as good as those YTD. But please tell me where you can get high percentage winning plays and write-ups/knowledge that you can actually learn from for 8 weeks so far this season? I don't know what will happen for Week 9, I can't predict if I have a winning week. But what I can tell you is I work as hard as I can and will continue as long as I keep at it to provide insight, analysis, and most of all, the best plays I can deliver.

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Weekend Summary

Now, I want to comment on some guys who ended up actually losing money on a undefeated week for me and for many who follow this site. I know the majority won this week, but I still will comment to those who did not:

The lines I post are the lines that are available online at the time of my newsletter. I sent out the plays FRIDAY AFTERNOON! That is plenty of time for you to get a good line. Anyone who could not get NE-7 either only has one shop and refused to buy to -7, or did not try hard enough. You generally should have several options when making a play:

1. Find the best line from a variety of outlets that you have. Maybe you can get the same line I post, maybe better, maybe worse.
2. Buy to whatever number you feel comfortable with.
3. Don't make a play.

#3 is the overriding point above all others. At any point I issue a play that you disagree with, no one is forcing you to make that play. Feel free to do whatever you want. If you can't get a solid line, again, feel free to not make a play. I can't tell you what to do if you only use a local and he's not at my number and he won't let you buy to it. I can't tell you what to do if you only use Pinnacle or The Greek (for example) and you can't get the number I post and don't want to buy to it.

But I can assure you, there is zero chance that I am simply posting a number that is not available online in order to tally up a win. I run my computer system on Tuesday. If I want, I can wager on plays whenever I want and use any choice of location to make the play. The point of this site is NOT to post plays that I can make. It is to help you guys make winning bets. For that reason, I post the line I can find at the time I send it out. Certainly, in many cases, lines move against me over the course of the week. I can get -6.5 -110 early in the week and by the time I e-mail it to you it's -7 -110. And maybe you don't make the play right away and you do so the next day and it's -7.5 -110. That is what happens to everyone in this business who releases plays to the public. But I'm not going to release -6.5 -110 if the line is now at -7.5. Those who have followed me for years know I don't play that game and never will.

There appears to be some confusion - my e-mail goes out on Friday or Saturday AM at the latest. I don't "post" the message on my website until Sunday. Therefore, if you are not getting the e-mail, of course you are not going to get these lines! And if you are just hanging out on the message boards on Sunday AM waiting for my post, you missed the whole boat. I've had some guys complain that by the time I posted the message on my website, the line was NE -8. If you got the e-mail I sent on Friday afternoon, it was -7. No one on this site should have waited until Sunday to play NE. No one.

Again, to reiterate, the the object of this site is for me to select games that hit at a high percentage for YOU, the follower, to win money on.

Carolina is another play that, at some places on Saturday, was -3.5 -110. On Sunday morning it was -4 at several places, and -4.5 at some others. I know it closed at -5 at many outlets, but again, I can't control what happens after I release a play. I won't release -4 unless I see some sites that have -4. If you have -4.5 or -5 and choose not to buy to -4, you really can't blame me for that. I'm not forcing you to buy down, nor am I forcing you to make a play at all.

To the guys who deal w/ local bookies who don't open shop until noon on Sunday(!!!), you already know this, but you won't be able to win much at that shop. Vegas lines already are shaded, and if you wait until the betting window is almost closed and the lines continue to move against you all week and all Sunday morning before you place your first wager, it is a recipe for disaster. Tim posted good advice in a comment from the previous post, so check that out.

It is unfortunate that this week we had two games of the four that had key numbers in the line and the game ended on those same key number. Anytime you have that situation, you are going to have a majority of pushes, and some losers and some winners. Yes, I have heard from guys who were able to go 4-0 this weekend due to buying points. Again, I don't recommend buying in general, as it forces your win % to increase in order to earn money. But there are occasions where it is wise and you can win if you are smart about it. The chances of another weekend where half of the plays I release push, and some people who get a worse line lose, are slim, but it may happen. I just ask for you to continue to use your best judgment and make sharp decision about your wagers and money management. After all, we all want to have more money at the end of the day than we started with.

Good luck and back later w/ MNF if I decide to release a play.

2008 Week 8 Plays

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2008 Week 8 Plays:

Bal-7
Mia +2
NE-7
Added Sunday: Car-4

Writeups:

Bal-7

• Since 2004, the Raiders are 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road as a non-divisional underdog of 7+ points, losing by an average of 18 points.
• Since 2003, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in non-divisional games w/ a total under 39 points.
• In the last 10 seasons, Oakland is 0-10 vs teams in the Eastern time zone, including 2-8 ATS, when being made a TD+ dog. On average they have failed to cover an avg 10 point line by 8 points and lost by 18.
• After a win as a home underdog and going on the road as an underdog, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992, including 0-2 ATS the last two years. On average, they have failed to cover a 7 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 15.
• Teams who won by 3 or less as home dogs last week and now are road dogs of 7+ are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in the last 10 seasons, on avg losing by 16.
• The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after winning on the road as an underdog and then being favored at home, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 2006. Their only non-cover was as 12.5 point favorites in a divisional game in 2006, which they won by 10.
  

Remarkably, this is the only home game the Ravens play in a span of 7 full weeks. They played at home Oct 5 vs. the Titans, and have been on back to back road games. After this game, they have 3 straight road games, not returning to play another home game until the weekend before Thanksgiving. At home, the Ravens hold opponents to 11 points and put up 18. The Ravens are a very good team at home, and although Flacco has had his share of problems against top defenses, he has performed much better at home. He put together a nice road game in Miami, and I look for him to build off of that in the friendly confines of his home stadium.

A little statistical analysis which I don't normally provide: Oakland, while ranking #7 in ypr offensively, is not strong a rush team as it seems. They are definitely above avg, but not #7 in the league. They have faced, in order, the #31, 32, 17, 18, 19 ranked rushing defenses in terms of ypr prior to last week. Last week they faced the NYJ, who are #4, and Fargas averaged only 2.6 ypr and McFadden totaled 39 yards. And that was at home, which Oak won by 3 in OT and scored only 1 TD, despite being +3 in turnover margin and in the NYJ red zone 3 times. On the road, in Baltimore, Oakland will need a much better effort from their running game, especially when Bal leads the NFL in TOP (33:45 per game). Oak is 31st in the NFL in 3rd down conversions. Oakland is 0-9 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road "sandwich games" (H-A-H). While Oakland performed very well in its first east coast game this season, I look for Baltimore to control the ball and the game, and will lay the touchdown.

Mia+2

• Buffalo is a mere 2-8 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite of less than 1 FG, including 0-4 SU and ATS since 1999.
• Divisional home dogs who are off back to back losses who face a team off a win and the line is less than a FG are 22-9 ATS since 1990. If the line is 1 or 1.5, the underdog is 12-3 ATS since 1990.
• In the first 12 weeks of the season, if one team has 3+ wins more than its opponent but is a road fav of less than 3 points, they are 2-9 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won SU by an average of 5 points.
• One other trend that Miami falls under has gone 26-8-1 ATS since 2002, including 16-2-1 ATS since 2005.
  

With the exception of the Houston loss, where Miami was up by 5 w/ 1:40 left and Hou drove the length of the field to win w/ 0:03 left, the three losses Miami had were to teams who were very solid against the run: Bal #1 ypr (allowed), NYJ #4 ypr, Ari #14 ypr. In addition, Ari was a road game and the 2nd game of the season. Miami has come a long way from week 2. Their victories have come against teams they can run the ball on, including NE #25 ypr (allowed) and SD #18 ypr.

Buffalo is #17 in the league in ypr allowed, right near SD. But on the road, they have faced Ari (#31 ypr), StL (#16 ypr, #25 ypg) and they got lucky to face Jac when all their O-Line was beaten up. Jac averaged less than 2 ypr in week 1 and against Buf week 2, 3.6 ypr. Chances are, Buffalo's overall ypr allowed would decrease even more if Jac had the same running game they have now. This will be the toughest test yet for Buffalo to stop Miami's rushing attack, which is not spectacular, but is averaging 112 ypg and 4.1 ypr, good for 16th in the league, despite facing Bal and NYJ, both in the top 4 for rushing defense allowed.

I see a 5-1 Buffalo team who is eager to get its first divisional game won, against a Miami team that is looking to stay above .500 and looking to prove that upstart Buffalo is not going to start the season 6-1 in their house. Miami is not as bad as the final score looked against Baltimore, in fact, teams who lost to the Ravens the week before and are now underdogs of less than 1 TD are 11-4 ATS since 2003. Baltimore simply makes teams look bad, especially teams who like to run the ball. It may not be the cleanest game of the day, but Miami certainly has the potential to win this game at home.

NE-7

• Teams who are off back to back underdog victories and are underdogs of 7+ points are 3-11-2 ATS since 1997 and 1-15 SU. On average they have lost by 14 points. If on the road, these teams are 0-14 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.
• Since 2006, teams on the road have gone 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 SU.
• Teams who have been underdogs of 7+ points for 3 weeks in a row but who are off a home upset win and now on the road are 0-10 SU since 1990, losing by an average of 16 points. If the line is not a double digit spread, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 20 points.
• Teams who won as 7+ point home underdogs the week before by benefiting by a +4 turnover ratio are 0-5 ATS when playing as 6+ road dogs the following week. On average, failing to cover a 7+ point line by an additional 9 and losing by 16.
  
• Since taking over New England, the Patriots have had 15 weekends where they played back to back home games without a bye in between. Of those 15, six were non-divisional home games not on MNF. The Patriots went 5-1 ATS, their only non-cover was a 10 point win as a 13 point favorite in 2006.
• NE also falls into another trend which is 20-6 ATS since 2002 and is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons, including 6-1 ATS last season. On average covering a 10 point line and winning SU by 18 points.

I won't get into all the details of how St. Louis pulled out two remarkable underdog upsets, but suffice it to say, turnovers played a HUGE role. St. Louis on the road this season has generated, wait for it, ONE touchdown on a drive that started in their own territory. And in fact, that ONE TD came in Seattle, a team who is giving up 29 ppg. At the Redskins, the Rams scored their lone TD on a 76 yard fumble return. They had zero TDs at Philly. So you could also say that the Rams have scored exactly ONE offensive TD on the road this season, against the hapless Seahawks.

Since 2007, the Rams average less than 13 points on the road. Their 3 wins ATS out of 11 games came when they won the turnover battle, getting 2+ turnovers more than their opponent. If you take out the 37-29 upset victory over the Saints last season to earn their first win, the Rams scored less than 10 ppg average in their other 10 road games the past two seasons.

As far as the Rams playing outdoors, they have been extremely fortunate. Not that the weather will be bad in NE at kick (60 degrees) but the last time the Rams played in a northern city that did not have a dome and it was Week 7 or beyond was Buffalo and GB in back to back weeks in 2004. They lost both, scoring 17 in each and allowing 37 vs. Buf and 45 vs. GB.

Fortunately for NE, Cassel has only thrown 1 Int in his 3 home games. NE certainly is no world beater and I can see angles, particularly turnovers, which could lead to St. Louis winning SU. However, if the game plays out the way on average that it should, I think NE earns a cover and wins by 10.

Sunday AM UPDATE:

In reviewing my totals, the top play from my top system (5-2 YTD) is TB/Dal O40.5, however, I cannot firmly recommend this one as a play. Primarily due to Brad Johnson as QB. If Dal had Romo, I think this game does hit over the total. However, w/ the Cowboys secondary being banged up, it may somewhat even things out. If you are more of a risk-taker and you believe this game can go over, feel free to take the play.

The other total I was considering is at a site experiencing high winds and so I won't issue that as a play (Pit/NYG Over 42).

So officially, no totals to be issued but I wanted to share the play from my 5-2 system anyways.

My additional side selection is NOT a system play, but it is a play from my analysis:

Car -4

• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are not facing a non-divisional opponent as a home favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• After winning a divisional game by 10+ points the prior week, Carolina has not let down under John Fox vs. a non-divisional opponent the following week. They are 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an avg score of 25-3 and all four games went under.
• Since 2003, Arizona is 1-12 ATS playing on the road as dog of less than 7 in games outside their division in the NFC and are 0-13 SU.

My System

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I am sure that most understand from reading THIS POST how my system operates and how I am using it. However, apparently some do not so I will attempt to clarify.

My system has nothing to do with trends and research. My system is a computer system I developed several years ago which I run each week and which shows me games that have value in the line, whether sides or totals. It generates a number of plays each week.

I then review these plays and spend 90% of my time researching them to determine which ones have the best opportunity to hit.

The trends I come up with and post as part of the play, those are all part of my research but have nothing to do with my system.

My system starts operating in Week 4. Prior to that, all of my plays were made using my own handicapping methods.

From Week 4 thru the present, all plays were made by:

#1 Running my computer system
#2 Creating a "short list" of those system plays with the most value
#3 Researching each play on the board to determine which games I wanted to rule off the short list, which ones I wanted to keep on the short list, and which games were not targeted by my computer system but I wanted to add to the short list.
#4 Analyzing the few games left on my short list and releasing only those which I thought had the largest likelihood of winning.

Therefore, the plays I have released from week 4 on may have come from my system, or may have been added. And obviously, there were many system plays which I did not release.

Again, the "goal" this season, as stated before, was to release only a few games a week that I thought had the highest probability to hit. It was more of a "request" to me and I took it on as a personal challenge.

It is for that reason and that reason alone that I have not posted all of my system plays like I did last season. My computer system, which has performed outstanding, is my primary resource and tool to generate my releases.

I hope that clarifies any questions regarding my computer system and my releases this year.

2008 System Update and Important Message

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I know it has been frustrating the last two weeks for those following my plays. I cannot apologize enough. My entire intent is to help people WIN money, not lose it. For that reason, I am strongly, STRONGLY considering releasing my entire system plays on Tuesdays and then releasing my personal selections on the weekend, as I do now.

I will not do this because people asked me to, but yes, I have heard you loud and clear. People who followed it last year and made money, want to see the plays again. The reason I will do it is because I feel badly you have lost on my personal selections the last two weeks, and want to help you make some money the next couple of weeks (hopefully).

Now, how did the system do this past week? Well, I e-mailed Fox Sports Radio's AM show and gave them system plays on Thursday. I told them two things just prior to the plays:

So there are two major factors in the system that the user should be aware of:

#1 - Injury to a key position since the last game, particularly to a key position like QB/RB
#2 - Double Digit Favorites could be ignored as plays completely

Then I gave them the plays:

ATS
Hou (-8.5), TB (-10.5), Was (-7), Chi (-3), Dal (-7), Cin (+10), Buf (+1.5), GB (+2.5), Car (-3)

Totals
Chi/Min Over (37.5 - no play if higher), Buf/SD Over (45), SF/NYG Over (45), Sea/TB Over 38

Now for the caveats. TB is a double digit fav, and both Dal and Cin have QB changes, so that could impact those two, but at least the change is known well in advance of game time.

So, how did we do?

If you took the advice and ignored the double digit favorite (TB) and both teams who had backup QBs (Dal/Cin), you would have gone 4-2 ATS (67%).

So, you may ask yourself, why did I release Cin and Dal as my personal plays when I knew they had backup QBs playing? My system anticipated Dal winning by 9. It was not the strongest play (from a value perspective) of the system plays for the week, but it was a play that had support from trend analysis and my research, so I kept it on the card. Did I think that replacing Romo w/ Johnson would move my predicted output of a win by 9 to a loss by 20? I could not have predicted that much of a drop off. I thought Johnson would provide a less risky option and allow the team to decrease their highs/lows. I still thought a 9 point victory was achievable. I believed that Jason Garrett would be able to use his weapons and running game to build a steady lead. I did not predict that kind of a loss.

The Cincy game was close at halftime (10-7) and close after the third quarter (17-10). Cincy's 4th quarter was miserable, after pinning Pit at their own 9 and down by only 7, they allowed Pit to score a TD in just 6 plays, then produced two 3 and outs, one of which was a fumble, which gave the Steelers the ball inside the Cincy 15 and then inside the Cincy 35. Both resulted in Steelers TDs. So yes, the play looked good at the half, looked winnable even at the start of the 4th, but then imploded. I thought even w/ Fitzpatrick the play of +10 was still a decent value play, and though I was wrong, it was closer than the final score indicated.

As for the totals: I did post my top totals Over play (Min/Chi O 37.5) prior to game time (Sun 11:31 AM EDT) in a message board thead HERE.

Right now my Top Overs system is 5-2 ATS (71%) on the season. It was from that system which came the close loss (Car/TB Over) last weekend. It is the same system that went a remarkable 21-1 ATS last season.

My other Overs System is 10-6, going 2-2 this past weekend (it also had the Chi/Min Over). Which puts it at 63% on the season.

System Plays which will be Posted:

1. All ATS plays, and remember, I categorically rule out DD favs and teams starting a backup QB.

2. All Totals plays, w/ designation if it is a "Top" play or not.

Those are the guidelines for plays that will be posted.

The duty that gets placed on your shoulders now that I am doing this:

1. You will be able to spend 5 days of line shopping to get the best line you can.

2. You will have to determine which plays you will want to make. Again, the system has generated 7-9 ATS plays a week so far. I will share all plays that fall under the above parameters, but there will be many more than just a couple of plays a week.

3. You will have to factor in injuries and other research into the plays.

4. I am simply sharing my system that I created. I don't take responsibility for bad weeks or losing plays.

System Results YTD

Using the above parameters (no DD favs, no back-up QBs), here are the ATS system results so far for 2008:

Week 4:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
KC (W), Atl (L), Ten (W), Oak (L), Was (W), Chi (W), Buf (W), TB (W), Bal (W)

Totals 4-1 (80%)
Cle/Cin Under (W) - note I actually recommended this via e-mail but did not count it towards my record, Min/Ten Over (L), GB/TB Over (W), SD/Oak Over (W), Phi/Chi Over (W)

Week 5:

ATS 6-2-1 (75%)
Hou (L), Bal (Push), Mia (W), Chi (W), NYG (W), SF (L), Cin (W), Car (W), Ari (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Ten/Bal Over (L), Sea/NYG Over (W), TB/Den Over (L), Buf/Ari Over (W)

Week 6:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
Mia (W), Bal (L), GB (W), Phi (W), Atl (W), Ari (W), NYJ (W), TB (W), Den (L)

Totals 2-1 (67%)
Car/TB Over (L), Phi/SF Over (W), Dal/Ari Over (W)

Week 7:

ATS 4-2 (67%)
Hou (L), Chi (W), Was (L), Buf (W), GB (W), Car (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Chi/Min Over (W), Buf/SD Over (L), SF/NYG Over (W), Sea/TB Over (L)


Summary Weeks 4-7

ATS 24-8-1 (75%)
Top Totals 5-2 (71%)
Overs System #2 Totals 10-6 (63%)


Now, a few things I want to mention:

1. I know Czaban and perhaps others do no believe that a computer system can pick games at such a high percentage. It has done so thus far and at this point, I can't worry about what people think of it. My goal for running this site is not to make everyone a believer, I can't help the fact that although my system plays were posted all of last season, and although my personal plays this season have been posted every single week this season, people do not believe that my record is achievable. My goal for this site it is to help people make money. If sharing my system will help do that, then that's what I will do.

2. I know Brandon Lang does not think I would share these plays publicly. Well, I did it last season, publicly on Tuesdays of each week for the upcoming games, and my results are HERE and anyone can view those threads to verify the accuracy HERE. I also know that Brandon Lang said I should "validate" my system, but that is exactly what I did all of last season, and the results don't lie. I validated it last Week 7 w/ FSR (4-2 ATS if you don't play DD favs or teams w/ backup QBs), and now I will validate it with you guys for a couple of weeks. I know it works, and it has worked for several years. It is not a 100% system. But it has been hitting over 60% w/ regularity. (It will be just my luck that it has its first losing week of 2008 in Week 8, but I can't control everything. I can only do what I've been doing.)

3. I will still release my personal plays, and I will do it on Saturday AM and Sunday AM, just like I am doing now.

4. This is a WARNING: some plays that I may release as personal plays will not be system plays. Sometimes I run my system and instantly see a game that I would definitely not play. Such as Baltimore in Indy Week 6. And, as you know, in Week 5 my system said Bal +3 over Ten (line available on Tuesday), but I played Ten -1 (line available Friday-Sunday) and won w/ Ten.

5. Injuries are a very difficult thing for anyone's system to handle. It involves adding a human input into how much you downgrade a team or a player. Therefore, if a team has a couple O-Line injuries, how much do you downgrade them? That is something that is difficult to measure. Therefore, be aware of injuries when making a play.

It is up to you what you want to do w/ my system plays. If I decide to follow through and post these system plays, I will not send them out via e-mail. I will simply post them on my website on Tuesday. If you want to play any of them, or wait, it is up to you. If you want to wait until Saturday to see what I personally recommend, that is fine also. Again, sometimes my personal recommendations may not come from a system play. I will still try to recommend just a few heavy hitters. It hasn't worked out the past two weekends, but I am sure we will be having better success soon.

2008 Week 7 Plays

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Week 7 Plays:

Dal -7
Chi -3
Cin +10

Week 7 Writeups:

Dal -7

• Teams who had fewer than 10 first downs in an upset win on the road are 2-8-1 ATS since 1990 including 1-5-1 ATS as underdogs, provided the game is not MNF.
• Teams who benefitted by receiving 3+ turnovers and won as an 4.5+ point underdog the prior game despite accumulating fewer than 10 first downs are 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 since 1990. If underdogs, they failed to cover the 6 point avg line by 8 points and lost by 2 TDs.
• Ignoring the previous line, if they received 3+ Tos and had less than 10 FDs in a underdog win, they are 0-6-1 ATS and 0-7 SU if their next game is a home game, since 1990.
• Since 1999, Dallas is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU after losing SU as a road favorite the week before, if the game is not on MNF. As a favorite the following week, they are 4-0 SU and ATS, scoring an average of 25 and allowing an average of 10 on a -5 point line.
• Since 2005, when Dallas has equal to or more ATS Losses than SU wins on the season, they are 8-3 ATS and 9-2 SU, including a perfect 5-0 ATS and SU in 2006. This situation did not occur last season.
• Since 1990, teams who won as 7.5+ dogs their prior game and are now are 7+ dogs are 18-30-1 ATS and 7-42 SU.
• Since 2002, they are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS, failing to cover an average 10 point line by 9 points and losing by 19 points.
• Teams who faced Ari last week are 4-0 SU and ATS in 2008.
• Teams who lost to Ari last week are 6-3 ATS since 2007
• St. Louis is 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as home underdogs, dating through 2008, 2007 and into 2006
• St. Louis is 0-5 ATS since 2006 as home underdogs of 6+ points. On average, they allowed 38 points and scored 18, losing by 20 points and failing to cover an average 8 point line by 11 points. Losses came to Chi, GB, Pit, NYG and Buf. All teams w/ decent defenses and offenses that can run the ball and set up the pass.
• Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS since 2000 after a loss which brought them to having lost 3 straight ATS. In addition, since 1995, Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the same situation if playing a non-divisional opponent prior to week 16 of the season (non-MNF). Small sample size, but it shows that Dallas rarely loses 3 straight ATS and it is even less rare for them to lose four in a row.
  

Don't get me wrong, I think Dallas has been highly overrated this season. I went against them w/ Philly on MNF and won. My system, which kicks into gear in Week 4, has been against Dallas the last 3 weeks and won each time. Was + points, Cin + points, Ari + points. My system had Ari actually winning by 3 points last week and had Cin losing by only 12 the week before. Both were within 3 points of the final outcome. But this week, I think the line is right and they will finally get break their 3 game ATS losing streak in a game that is much of a fade the Rams incredible upset as it is to back the Cowboys off a bad road loss in OT.

Chi -3

• In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 14 points and failed to cover by an avg of 11 points. They have not won ATS or SU in their last 10 contests.
  
• Chicago lost both games SU to Minnesoata last season.
• Divisional teams who lost both games to the previous opponent the season before and are now favored in the first matchup of the season are 56-37 ATS as long as the line is 2 or more points and the game is held within the first 9 weeks of the season.
• So far in 2008, this trend has gone 4-0, although the past 3 years it has gone 5-3-2, 5-3, and 5-2 ATS, so it is not a machine of a trend.
• In fact, since 2001, if the team is at home and the line is 3+, the home team is 15-7 ATS and 22-2 SU.
• Also, in games involving the NFC North (Bears/Packers/Vikings/Lions even prior to the NFC North) that are non MNF, this trend is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 1991, including a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since 1994.
  
• Chicago is 3-0 ATS and SU in this trend, including their game against Detroit earlier this season.
  
• Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home following a SU loss. In fact, since 2005 they are 6-2 ATS, one loss being a SU win but an ATS loss to KC as 12 point favorites, winning only by 10. The other was week 3 of this season vs. TB, where TB scored a TD to send the game to OT in the closing seconds and then won SU in OT.
• If playing a divisional team at home following a loss, Chicago is 5-0 SU and ATS. The majority of these games were not close at all. Chicago won three of those games by 20+ and two by 10. Included in there are 3 games against Minnesota, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
• When facing the Vikings at home following a loss under Smith, the Bears are 3-0 SU and ATS, on average putting up 25 and allowing 10.
• Since 2003, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS and SU after a win in which they did not cover, including 0-2 the past two seasons and 0-2 as underdogs since 2003.
• Since 2000, Minnesota is 0-4 ATS and SU on the road after a win in which they did not cover. The average line was 5 points and Minnesota lost by an average of 20 points, failing to cover by 15.
• Teams who faced Atlanta last week are 4-1 ATS in 2008.
• Teams who faced Atlanta last week and are favored are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 2007
• Teams who faced Detroit last week are 0-4 ATS in 2008.

The things that concerns me here is Chicago's injured secondary (several corners are questionable, which will be ruled out?) and

• Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU prior to its bye week, the one victory being the 1 point come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Arizona in 2006. In fact, taking it back to division realignment in 2002, Chicago is 0-6 ATS the week prior to its bye, and 1-5 SU.

Can a team be consistently bad prior to a bye? Since 2002, no team is worse than Chicago's 0-6, which is obvious, but the next closest teams are Bal, Det and Phi, who all sit at 2-5 ATS, but both Bal and Phi were 1-5 ATS prior to this season and both won prior to their bye this season. On any given week any team can cover, but it is alarming that Chi has not done it prior to their bye since 2002. Still, the system likes Chi, my research (aside from this one trend) points to Chi, and I think Chi can get the cover here.

Cin +10

• There have only been 18 occasions since division restructuring in 2002 when a divisional game featured a road favorite of 8+ points (ignoring week 17). The only teams to cover the spread were the high-powered Colts (twice over the Texans), the high-powered Patriots of last season (twice) and a random late season game between the 9-4 Panthers and the 3-10 Saints in 2005, which featured Todd Bouman throwing 4 Ints and Aaron Stecker rushing for 59 yards. Aside from those three teams pulling off this feat, the other 9 teams who tried have failed 13 times. Even the high powered Indy offense failed 3 times, Den failed twice and GB failed twice.
• The Steelers are 0-3 ATS as 8+ point road favorites vs. anyone in their division, dating back to the AFC Central days of 1993. The fact that they have only been favored by this many points 3 times is something to think about.
• The Steelers are 0-2 ATS as 8+ point favorites in Cincinnati.
• The Steelers are 0-6-0 ATS since 1990 as road favorites of 8 or more points, remarkably going 2-4 SU and losing the last two times, in 2007 to the NYJ and in 2006 to Oakland.
• Since 2002, the Steelers are 2-4 ATS following a bye. The last year they covered the spread was the year they won the Super Bowl. The last two seasons they have lost both ATS and SU, losing by 3 as a 3.5 point favorite at Denver, and in 2006 losing by 10 as a 3.5 point underdog in San Diego.

• Ignoring their MNF game against the Pats last season, the Bengals are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs on a line of 8 or more, covering an average 10 point line by 5 points and thus losing by 5.
• They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games, however these were back in 2000 and 2001.
• Since 2003, the Bengals are 15-6-3 ATS the week after a SU and ATS loss.
  
• In their last 11 games they are 9-1-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.
  
• As underdogs of more than 1 point, they are 7-0 ATS L7 and 7-1 ATS since 2006.
• As underdogs of more than 4, they are 4-0 ATS since 2003
• As underdogs of 8+ points, they are 8-0-1 ATS since 2000

This is certainly not a safe and comfy feeling play. What concerns me? Well, for starters:

• Since 1999, the Steelers are 9-1 ATS and 9-1 SU in Cincinnati.
• Another trend, which I won't mention specifically, went 8-1 ATS last season and is 2-0 so far this season.
• Fortunately w/ that trend, the only team favored by over 4 points was NE vs Buf last season. All other teams who covered under that trend were favorites of 4 or less.
• Lastly, Ryan Fitzpatrick, the worst team in the league (record wise) and the fact that they have historically trash talked this Pittsburgh team and Pittsburgh has historically beaten them down w/ regularity.

Why do I like this play? Aside from the fact my system thinks Pittsburgh wins by 6 and I can get 10 on it, and aside from the fact that my trends and research show great value in taking a double digit divisional dog, I personally believe this Steelers team to be overrated. I think there are several achillies heels on this team that are ready to be exposed. Do the Bengals have the capability of exposing them? Not to the extent to make me feel good about the play. Do I have much faith in Marvin Lewis? Definitely not. But can Cincy get the cover? I will, for three hours on Sunday, put my faith in them and hope for the best.

MNF and Season Forward Comment

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Not only was the game a bad play, but it was also a play that came not from my system, but from my desire to release a play on Monday for the various people who e-mailed me and questioned why I would not release a MNF play.

I take full responsibility for the bad play and I should have stopped when I typed in my writeup:

"This is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover."

Those three sentences should have scared me away from releasing this play. My system found no value in a play. My reasons for releasing the play stemmed from a few e-mails I received from a variety of people who essentially really wanted my input on the game, really wanted to receive all of my system plays, and really wanted me to "help them out" and play more games, particularly, the game last night. I did a disservice by releasing a play that I had only researched for approximately 2.5 hours on Monday afternoon.

I was talking to a friend in London around 2pm EST about the fact I was not releasing a play for MNF. I told him my system found no value in the game, and I was not going to force anything. I am sure he is quite shocked to find that I did in fact release a play, and what a poor play that it was.

I realize that many people signed up for plays this past weekend, based on hearing about my show on Fox Sports Radio w/ Steve Czaban as well as (from what some people told me but I have not yet confirmed) on the Dan Patrick radio show. And most likely several of the individuals who signed up were expecting to see a MNF release and were wondering where it was and were asking for my help.

I sincerely appreciate all of the exposure and interest but I'm not doing my job if I put out plays that lose you money. My entire desire for sharing my plays is to let you guys share in the profits. For that reason, I must stick to the very few plays a week that I release that have value.

So just so everyone is clear:

1. There may be some weeks that I truly only do have only 1 play that has substantial value. If that is the case, please do not demand for me to release multiple plays. (Someone was upset that I "might only release the totals play" which I mentioned in my Saturday e-mail.) Yes, there are times only one play will be released, and I am sorry if you would like to see 5 plays, but I will only release those that have high enough value.
2. Many cases I will not release a MNF game. From now on, by 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific, I will post on my site if I am going to have a play for MNF or not. You won't have to wonder.
3. When I release multiple plays, unless I specifically mention that one play is strong and another is not, I like all plays the same value.

I should have stated this from the very beginning, and I am sorry if you took my play last night and lost your hard earned money. I am quite disappointed in my 1-2 record this week, particularly because I do know that many new people signed up and were, I am sure, disappointed w/ the results. But I assure you, there is no one more disappointed than I am. I also assure you that I will not release any more plays like the play I released last night: a play I felt pressured to make and one which my research was only 2.5 hours and had no value based upon my system.

I am not a standard service you may be used to, who has an opinion and play on every single day of the season, and on 5 games on Sunday. I look for targeted games, I pick my spots, and I pass on 95% of the games. I try to pick those 5% that I feel have an extreme edge and let Vegas make money on the rest.

So you know, the methodology I take when releasing plays is:

• Run my system and view the output
• Create a shortlist of those games
  
• Research those games which are system plays, narrow the shortlist down to the best bets
• Double check, and then research games not selected to see if there is any significant edge in any game the system did not catch or recommend
• This process typically starts first thing Tuesday AM and runs all the way through until Sunday AM. Not 12 hrs per day, but several hours, each and every day. I take my system and my releases very seriously, which is part of the reason I am so disappointed in myself for releasing the non-system play on MNF.
  

The majority of plays I have released from week 4 onward have been system plays. As you know, my system kicks in week 4. Prior to this game, those plays were 6-2. With this non-system play, that drops the record to 6-3 the L3 weeks, 4-2 the L2.

The only positive is that I am still hitting 75% even after absorbing a terrible weekend. The other positive is that we have a clear plan moving forward. Despite offers for otherwise, I am sticking to my original plan to only release certain plays which have the most value for the week. I cannot predict how many that will be on a weekly basis. The average has been 3 thus far.

Prior to this week, I was 17-4 (81%). I cannot promise future results, but what I can promise is Week 7 and onward will have the same diligence and attention to detail that all prior plays have had, save the mistake last night.

Week 6 MNF

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A few numbers.

1

1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record

105

105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.

• Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.
• If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.
• If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points
• In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12
• Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.
• In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.
• Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.
  
• Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog
• Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.
• 1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.
  

This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:

• started Ryan Fitzpatrick,
• turned the ball over 5 times,
• and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter
  

It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.

I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.

Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.

The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-spgiants105877135oct10,0,4854389.story

Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.

Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.

Week 6 Reflection

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The last time Jake Delhomme and the Panthers did not score a TD in a game was over two full seasons ago, week 1 of 2006.

The last time Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in a regular season game was a full three years ago, week 6 of 2005.

Since Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and started for the team, the only game where he threw 3 ints and Carolina scored not a single TD was yesterday.

Suffice it to say, I am still disgusted over their inability to put up a TD, thus depriving us of a 2-0 day. Some call it a "bad beat", I just call it a random and unlikely event. For all of it to happen after a first quarter which played out so perfectly:

Two first quarter TDs and Carolina w/ the ball on 1st and 10 at the TB 14 yard line to start the 2nd quarter.

was just a tragic turn of events for us. My system showed a TB win and cover, w/ them scoring 23 to 24 points. They put up 27. However, it showed Carolina scoring approx. 20 in the loss. We only needed them to put up 1 TD and they could not get there.

The Over play came from my Overs system which was 4-1-1 (80%) since the I started running it this season in Week 4, and was 21-1 last season (95%) and 17-5 (77%) in 2006.

I am disappointed I cannot say it is now 5-1-1 (83%) on the season and we were 2-0 on the week. But such is life and we must move on.

I can tell you that the occurrence of such an unlikely event should be unlikely and hopefully will not make another appearance in the remainder of the games we play this season. I do my best to narrow down games to those which are the most likely to hit. Sometimes, though, events so unlikely to occur, do occur which make those plays which are highly likely to hit, miss, and we are left out. Again, I will continue to work just as hard to keep our high percentage going throughout the rest of the season and hopefully we will not be on the receiving end of a game like that again.

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Week 6 Plays:

TB/Car O 36.5
Phi -4.5

Week 6 Writeups:

TB/Car O 36.5

• Since Gruden took over TB and Fox took over Car (both in 2002), the Over between the two teams has gone a mere 5-7 on an average line of 36.

• However, games in Tampa have gone 4-2 to the over, including 4 straight overs. (Since 2004)
• Not only has this game gone over in TB the last 4 straight years, it has destroyed the over. On an average line of 36.5, the final score has been 52. Carolina has eclipsed 30 points in 3 of the 4, while TB has eclipsed 20 in 3 of the 4. On average, 12 first quarter points have been scored and 26 first half points have been scored. Needing only 11 more to eclipse the average total in the 2nd half. On average, by the end of the 3rd quarter, 40 points have been scored, well exceeding the posted total.
• Tampa Bay's Overs have gone 8-1 in the last 3 seasons in home divisional games. On an average total of 37.5, the average final scores have totaled 44 points.
• In Tampa Bay's last 9 home divisional games, the fewest points TB have scored was 23, save the 2 games started by Gradkowski as QB (6 and 14). On average, they scored 28 points.
  
• In Tampa Bay's last 10 home divisional games, on average they allowed 24 ppg, ignoring the last 2 w/ Atlanta (where Atlanta scored only 3 and 9 points).
• Thus, an average final score of 28+24 = 52 points
  
• In Carolina's last 12 road divisional games, on average they scored 32 points, ignoring two road starts by Weinke and Carr (10 and 16 respectively).
• Ignoring those same two contests, Carolina allowed an average of 19 points.
• Thus, an average final score of 32+19 = 51 points
  
• Under Fox, Carolina is 9-3 for Overs in road divisional games. On an average line of 39.5, the net finals have been 47 points.
  
• In any of these 12 games where the total was set at 40 or fewer points, the over has hit 6-0, eclipsing the total by an average of 15 points. Granted, 4 of the 6 featured TB, which we mentioned earlier, but the other two, NO and ATL, both went over the posted total by 15 and 10.5 points respectively.

Another angle is previously playing in a low scoring game in Denver the week before:

• Teams who played their last game in Denver w/ a total of 38 or above and the game went under are 14-4-1 to the Over back at home since 2001, on average exceeding a 41 point total by 7 points.
• The 4 losses were the result of vastly 1 sided games: 26-7, 29-3, 19-3 and 28-3.
• If the total in the prior game in Denver was over 41 points, their next game went over 9-1-1 since 2001.
• Since 2003, the over is 10-1 in those games, exceeding a 41 point total by an avg of 12 points.
• Since 1990, if a team played in Denver on a total over 41 points and both team combined for only 34 or fewer points, the over in that team's next game at home is 8-0 ATS.
  

This line is dead on to what you would expect from these two teams. Especially when you see that TB was just off of a 13-16 loss in Denver, and Carolina is 1-3-1 for Overs so far this season. It makes anyone who is looking at "what have you done for me lately" to hesitate on the Over. Not to mention the average posted totals between these teams in their last 10 meetings is dead on with 36.5. But let's investigate more:

TB's total has gone over 8-1 in 9 home divisional games the last 3 seasons, but they did go Under in their one game so far this season, week 2 vs. Atl. So looking at that game:

• ATL started a rookie QB in his first road game ever, against the infamous Tampa 2.
• Ryan's first 6 drives resulted in two turnovers and 4 punts, almost all drives 3 and outs and advancing no closer than the TB 36.
• ATL made many halftime adjustments, and conducted two sustained drives in the 2nd half, taking the ball to the TB 9 and TB 6 yard lines before settling for 2 FGs.
• In total, ATL had 3 trips inside the TB 15 yard line and came away with only 3 FGs, not surprising for a rookie in his first road game.
• Meanwhile, TB was able to put up 24 points themselves, though 10 were off of turnovers.

In addition, as stated above, the Overs in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay have all hit. But let's investigate the QBs of those two teams during that time:

• Wk 17, 2007: Total 36, M. Moore (Car) vs L. McCown (TB) - both throw 2 TDs, final score totaled 54 points
• Wk 3, 2006: Total 34.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 50 points
• Wk 9, 2005: Total 36.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 48 points
• Wk 16, 2004: Total 39, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. B. Griese (TB) - 7 combined passing TDs, final score totaled 57 points

The games in Carolina featured even spottier QBs: two years ago Tampa started Gradkowski, and last year Carolina started Carr.

The point of this analysis is that these games in Tampa went well over the posted total, and none of the four featured Delhomme vs. Garcia. The two best QBs on either team (need to see the health of Garcia to validate).

I believe that if weather does not impact this game too much, we will see an over. Please use your own best judgement and money management given all of the information I have shared with you and make and informed and well thought out play on the game.

A quick note about the final score landing on 36, 37 or 38:

You definitely want to get 36.5 on this game. As I've said in past e-mails regarding the number 37:

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time
Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time
Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time
Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

Therefore, having Over 36.5 would allow you to win on 37, a number that occurs twice as often as 36, 38 or 39.

In addition, in games lined 36, 36.5 or 37:

37 occurs 4.4% of the time, which is 2.4 times as often as 36 occurs (1.8%). The whole key is to win and not to push, so try to get that 36.5.

Phi -4.5

• Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites on the West Coast
  
• Under Andy Reid, Philly is 6-1 ATS vs. a non-divisional opponent after a loss to a divisional opponent, including 5-1 ATS on the road
  
• Under Andy Reid, Philly is 5-1 ATS following a loss as a home favorite in their last game, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite.
  
• Since 2000, the Eagles are 18-5 ATS following a loss
• If favored, they are 10-2 ATS
• I won't mention the specific system, but the Eagles qualify for a 16-4-1 subset of a system since 1990, including 9-0 ATS since 2000, covering an average -4 line by 8 points and winning by an avg of 11 points.
• As a larger subset, they are 33-10-2 ATS since 1990 and in non-divisional games since 2000, they are 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS, covering a -6 point line by an average of 8 points.

Short and simple as time is short. This is a play that I have had on my radar, and though not the strongest of my plays, it was one that I could not find good reasons to remove. I will take Philly and hope for a 5 point cover.

My System and System Results from Prior Seasons

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I want to better describe my system and my strategy this season:

First, the goal of my venture into developing a computer system was simply to develop another "tool" I could use to cap games. I developed it a few years back, and my results since then not only have been tremendous in my opinion, but have been remarkably consistent. I won't begin to say that "I cracked the code" or developed some Holy Grail for handicapping. But the results are 100% accurate and unaltered. For proof of last season's results, all you need to do is begin looking at the weekly threads I posted at a certain website which I mention HERE. As for this season's records, most of you can verify them yourselves as you've received the e-mails, but I have also posted all plays prior to kickoff on my site as well as on three different message boards. My system typically kicks in Week 4 and I chart it through the rest of the season. So all the records you see at the bottom of this thread that date back to 2006, those are from Week 4 through the playoffs.

What you need to realize, from looking at my system's records, is that a lot of plays are generated each season. I have several ATS systems and several Totals Systems, and then some permutations of these systems. Last season, I had a total of 578 plays from my system. In many cases they overlapped (in other words, the same pick was derived from multiple systems/permutations), but even disregarding that, you're looking at roughly 15+ plays a week. For example, while 30 plays would be generated by all systems for a certain week, perhaps only 15 would be unique side/total selections.

And what I realized last season, as I tried to get people to follow along on various message boards, was that there were simply too many plays to choose from. Guys certainly loved my top Overs system, which went 21-1 (95%). They followed that to a "T" and won on it. But the other systems simply produced too many plays on a weekly basis, and truthfully, I don't know how many guys played all of my plays. So even while they were hitting well, fewer people were making money off of them.

This offseason, I was approached by several people who had a specific desire:

Impressed by my system but unwilling to play 10+ games a week and hunt for plays on a message board, they wondered if I could e-mail out just a few plays a week that would hit at a high percentage.

I took their request seriously and as a personal challenge, and I have been working to accomplish this goal. Which brings me to how I am using my system this season:

I am using it as a "guide" to help find a "short list" of sides/total plays that contain a reasonable amount of value. Then, from there, I begin my rigorous weekly research. I research everything you can think of from various sources: Injuries, trends, weather, morale, motivation, public perception, and other factors that I think get overlooked by many when selecting their games for the week. Sometimes in my research I come up with plays that were not targeted by my system. In fact, this season so far I've released one game based on my research and my "gut instinct" that went against my system: Tennessee -1 over Baltimore in Week 5. My system showed Baltimore would win that game, but I believed based on my research and gut instinct that Tennessee would win. Indeed, it was a close game w/ Baltimore leading for a large part, but ultimately, Tennessee did win by 3 points. So while I want you to note my system's results at the bottom of this post, I want you to realize, this season I am doing a LOT MORE leg work on my own to narrow down plays and release them. I wish it was as easy as hitting "run" on my system. But there is not nearly as much fun in that.

Last season, in addition to my system plays, I also posted (on the same message board as I linked to above) personal selections, which were not derived from my system. These were my selections based on my research and capping. Last season, those plays went 58-36-3 (62%) and are fully verified at the other message board. As you can see, even my personal selections hit very well but I made about 100 plays, or about 5 a week including the playoffs. Yes, 62% is extremely good, but I figure that had I released only 3 or 4 plays a week instead of 5, I would have hit at an even higher percentage.

In addition, remember that my system does not typically kick in until Week 4 for projecting results. Last season, thru Week 3, my personal selections, not using my system at all, were 11-1 (92%). This season, thru Week 3 (and without my system), the plays I released went 12-3 (80%).

Also, as you will see at the bottom, in the 2005-2006 season, I participated in an online competition to pick sides and totals for the playoffs. Prior to the Super Bowl, I stood in First Place out of roughly 6,000 participants, with a record of 15-1 (94%). All of these selections were made on my own, without the use of my system. I knew the side I was going to play in the Super Bowl (Pittsburgh Steelers) and I knew what total I wanted to play (Under), but I made the side play and held off on the total play until gameday. This was because, by Sunday, I was able to see the selections of the 2nd and 3rd place players online (all plays are publicly viewable after they are selected). If I was wrong on both the side and total (Pittsburgh and the Under), I could have finished in 2nd place. However, if I selected the Pittsburgh and the Over, I would have locked up First place before the game even started. I decided it was the right move to not risk anything, so I took the Over, knowing I won First Place right there. The game ended Pittsburgh and the Under, putting me 1-1 for the day, 16-2 (89%) for the tournament and in First Place. No one has finished any of Wagerline's competitions w/ a winning percentage equal to or greater than mine (to date, since 1999, in any sport).

I am pointing all of this out to you so that you can realize one thing: While my system has been great for me, my own handicapping methods and instinct for plays (ignoring my system) has been great for the past several seasons which my plays are 100% documented online and not affiliated w/ my website at all.

I am a firm believer that everyone has their special talents and gifts, and for whatever reason, lately it has become clear to me that one of mine has been picking NFL games. I am not saying I will win 80% of my plays. That is frankly close to impossible if you are selecting 3-4 plays a week for an entire season. As you know, w/ standard juice, you need to hit approximately 52.4% to come out on top. I am defintely lucky to have my system, and combining it w/ my own insight and research certainly has become a winning combination. To answer several questions as to whether I do any other sports aside from the NFL: As I say on my homepage, I focus entirely on the NFL. I have not tried to spend time adapting my system to any other sport, nor have I handicapped any other sport. Not even NCAA football. Just NFL, it has my full focus, and I know that fact surely has played a role in my success.

Again, this season I have a vastly different and more complex challenge than in years past. My system plays are not being posted, they are being used only by myself as one of several tools I have to release typically between 3-4 plays a week that (hopefully) will hit at a high percentage. None of my plays are fancy team totals or prop bets or plays where I am buying multiple points and paying -130+ juice. (Once in a while I may advise buying a 1/2 point, but typically I leave that up to you.) I never have made these type of plays. These plays, while not being able to be wagered by many, also many times have stiff juice and so it is easier to have a good record if you are not playing standard spreads/totals. My system is based on WA lines and my plays that I have posted online since day one have all been standard side and total plays. With the exception of buying a 1/2 point on certain occasions, my recommendations are made w/ those same WA lines and the standard juice on those lines. My record will stand on its own at the end of the season, no fancy "stars" or "units" won, just my record of wins and losses.

My one note towards money management is this: I am not going to tell you how much to wager nor will I claim that I can keep up at my current pace. I would be very surprised if I finished the season at 81%. I am sharing all of my plays and information for you so you can try to hit at a better percentage than you usually do. I strongly recommend defining your bankroll, using a certain percentage of it on a weekly basis, and learning how to best buy or not buy points (when and where the value is). This is not a get rich quick scheme, it's full season of action. My goal has always been to be up at the end of each day, at the end of each week, and at the end of each season. So far if you have been following along, you are at 17-4 (81%). You can absorb a rough week or two because you are up ahead. I hope that does not happen, but let's face it, it is football and anything can happen. But I warn you because my goal is not for you to love my plays and analysis, though I do my best, it's to help you win money. I can only control the plays I release, I can't control anything else. Hopefully with my plays and your sharp money management, you will be very happy at the end of the season, which is truly my Ultimate Goal.


2007-2008 Results

My overs system was absolutely unbelievable. Hit 21-1 including playoffs. Highly unlikely it will do that well again, but myself and others made some solid money off of it.

Here are all my system plays:

Overs Sys #1: 21-1 (95%)
Overs Sys #2: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)
Wrong Team Favored: 16-17-2 (48%)

I also posted personal plays, which were in addition to system plays, and not derived out of any system, just my own capping. These plays went 58-36-3 (62%).

You will also notice I have more plays in 2007 than I did in 2006, which is because I added several new permutations and types of plays, such as a new totals system, a "top 5", and a "systems lean to the same side" play.

2006-2007 Results

Looking back at 2006, here are how my systems did that season:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%. So I was very proud, as I still am, to hold that distinction.

2008 Week 5 Plays

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Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)
Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
Chicago -3


Miami +7

• Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record)
• In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points.
• Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs.
  
• Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points.
• A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year.
• Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.
  

Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.

If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.


Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)

First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose.

• The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers
• If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points.
• The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15.
• The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points.

• There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points.
• If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6.
• Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites
  
• Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games.
• As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU.
• Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the Colts

A lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective:

• Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU
• Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU.
• If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS
  

It is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs:

• Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9

I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that:

• Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1
• Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens.
• Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.

As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.


Chi -3

• Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.
  

The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.

What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:

Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.

Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.

The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.

Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.

The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.

The only trend that really does scare me is:

• Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.

It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.