2008 Week 7 Plays

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Week 7 Plays:

Dal -7
Chi -3
Cin +10

Week 7 Writeups:

Dal -7

• Teams who had fewer than 10 first downs in an upset win on the road are 2-8-1 ATS since 1990 including 1-5-1 ATS as underdogs, provided the game is not MNF.
• Teams who benefitted by receiving 3+ turnovers and won as an 4.5+ point underdog the prior game despite accumulating fewer than 10 first downs are 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 since 1990. If underdogs, they failed to cover the 6 point avg line by 8 points and lost by 2 TDs.
• Ignoring the previous line, if they received 3+ Tos and had less than 10 FDs in a underdog win, they are 0-6-1 ATS and 0-7 SU if their next game is a home game, since 1990.
• Since 1999, Dallas is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU after losing SU as a road favorite the week before, if the game is not on MNF. As a favorite the following week, they are 4-0 SU and ATS, scoring an average of 25 and allowing an average of 10 on a -5 point line.
• Since 2005, when Dallas has equal to or more ATS Losses than SU wins on the season, they are 8-3 ATS and 9-2 SU, including a perfect 5-0 ATS and SU in 2006. This situation did not occur last season.
• Since 1990, teams who won as 7.5+ dogs their prior game and are now are 7+ dogs are 18-30-1 ATS and 7-42 SU.
• Since 2002, they are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS, failing to cover an average 10 point line by 9 points and losing by 19 points.
• Teams who faced Ari last week are 4-0 SU and ATS in 2008.
• Teams who lost to Ari last week are 6-3 ATS since 2007
• St. Louis is 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as home underdogs, dating through 2008, 2007 and into 2006
• St. Louis is 0-5 ATS since 2006 as home underdogs of 6+ points. On average, they allowed 38 points and scored 18, losing by 20 points and failing to cover an average 8 point line by 11 points. Losses came to Chi, GB, Pit, NYG and Buf. All teams w/ decent defenses and offenses that can run the ball and set up the pass.
• Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS since 2000 after a loss which brought them to having lost 3 straight ATS. In addition, since 1995, Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the same situation if playing a non-divisional opponent prior to week 16 of the season (non-MNF). Small sample size, but it shows that Dallas rarely loses 3 straight ATS and it is even less rare for them to lose four in a row.
  

Don't get me wrong, I think Dallas has been highly overrated this season. I went against them w/ Philly on MNF and won. My system, which kicks into gear in Week 4, has been against Dallas the last 3 weeks and won each time. Was + points, Cin + points, Ari + points. My system had Ari actually winning by 3 points last week and had Cin losing by only 12 the week before. Both were within 3 points of the final outcome. But this week, I think the line is right and they will finally get break their 3 game ATS losing streak in a game that is much of a fade the Rams incredible upset as it is to back the Cowboys off a bad road loss in OT.

Chi -3

• In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 14 points and failed to cover by an avg of 11 points. They have not won ATS or SU in their last 10 contests.
  
• Chicago lost both games SU to Minnesoata last season.
• Divisional teams who lost both games to the previous opponent the season before and are now favored in the first matchup of the season are 56-37 ATS as long as the line is 2 or more points and the game is held within the first 9 weeks of the season.
• So far in 2008, this trend has gone 4-0, although the past 3 years it has gone 5-3-2, 5-3, and 5-2 ATS, so it is not a machine of a trend.
• In fact, since 2001, if the team is at home and the line is 3+, the home team is 15-7 ATS and 22-2 SU.
• Also, in games involving the NFC North (Bears/Packers/Vikings/Lions even prior to the NFC North) that are non MNF, this trend is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 1991, including a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since 1994.
  
• Chicago is 3-0 ATS and SU in this trend, including their game against Detroit earlier this season.
  
• Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home following a SU loss. In fact, since 2005 they are 6-2 ATS, one loss being a SU win but an ATS loss to KC as 12 point favorites, winning only by 10. The other was week 3 of this season vs. TB, where TB scored a TD to send the game to OT in the closing seconds and then won SU in OT.
• If playing a divisional team at home following a loss, Chicago is 5-0 SU and ATS. The majority of these games were not close at all. Chicago won three of those games by 20+ and two by 10. Included in there are 3 games against Minnesota, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
• When facing the Vikings at home following a loss under Smith, the Bears are 3-0 SU and ATS, on average putting up 25 and allowing 10.
• Since 2003, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS and SU after a win in which they did not cover, including 0-2 the past two seasons and 0-2 as underdogs since 2003.
• Since 2000, Minnesota is 0-4 ATS and SU on the road after a win in which they did not cover. The average line was 5 points and Minnesota lost by an average of 20 points, failing to cover by 15.
• Teams who faced Atlanta last week are 4-1 ATS in 2008.
• Teams who faced Atlanta last week and are favored are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 2007
• Teams who faced Detroit last week are 0-4 ATS in 2008.

The things that concerns me here is Chicago's injured secondary (several corners are questionable, which will be ruled out?) and

• Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU prior to its bye week, the one victory being the 1 point come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Arizona in 2006. In fact, taking it back to division realignment in 2002, Chicago is 0-6 ATS the week prior to its bye, and 1-5 SU.

Can a team be consistently bad prior to a bye? Since 2002, no team is worse than Chicago's 0-6, which is obvious, but the next closest teams are Bal, Det and Phi, who all sit at 2-5 ATS, but both Bal and Phi were 1-5 ATS prior to this season and both won prior to their bye this season. On any given week any team can cover, but it is alarming that Chi has not done it prior to their bye since 2002. Still, the system likes Chi, my research (aside from this one trend) points to Chi, and I think Chi can get the cover here.

Cin +10

• There have only been 18 occasions since division restructuring in 2002 when a divisional game featured a road favorite of 8+ points (ignoring week 17). The only teams to cover the spread were the high-powered Colts (twice over the Texans), the high-powered Patriots of last season (twice) and a random late season game between the 9-4 Panthers and the 3-10 Saints in 2005, which featured Todd Bouman throwing 4 Ints and Aaron Stecker rushing for 59 yards. Aside from those three teams pulling off this feat, the other 9 teams who tried have failed 13 times. Even the high powered Indy offense failed 3 times, Den failed twice and GB failed twice.
• The Steelers are 0-3 ATS as 8+ point road favorites vs. anyone in their division, dating back to the AFC Central days of 1993. The fact that they have only been favored by this many points 3 times is something to think about.
• The Steelers are 0-2 ATS as 8+ point favorites in Cincinnati.
• The Steelers are 0-6-0 ATS since 1990 as road favorites of 8 or more points, remarkably going 2-4 SU and losing the last two times, in 2007 to the NYJ and in 2006 to Oakland.
• Since 2002, the Steelers are 2-4 ATS following a bye. The last year they covered the spread was the year they won the Super Bowl. The last two seasons they have lost both ATS and SU, losing by 3 as a 3.5 point favorite at Denver, and in 2006 losing by 10 as a 3.5 point underdog in San Diego.

• Ignoring their MNF game against the Pats last season, the Bengals are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs on a line of 8 or more, covering an average 10 point line by 5 points and thus losing by 5.
• They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games, however these were back in 2000 and 2001.
• Since 2003, the Bengals are 15-6-3 ATS the week after a SU and ATS loss.
  
• In their last 11 games they are 9-1-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.
  
• As underdogs of more than 1 point, they are 7-0 ATS L7 and 7-1 ATS since 2006.
• As underdogs of more than 4, they are 4-0 ATS since 2003
• As underdogs of 8+ points, they are 8-0-1 ATS since 2000

This is certainly not a safe and comfy feeling play. What concerns me? Well, for starters:

• Since 1999, the Steelers are 9-1 ATS and 9-1 SU in Cincinnati.
• Another trend, which I won't mention specifically, went 8-1 ATS last season and is 2-0 so far this season.
• Fortunately w/ that trend, the only team favored by over 4 points was NE vs Buf last season. All other teams who covered under that trend were favorites of 4 or less.
• Lastly, Ryan Fitzpatrick, the worst team in the league (record wise) and the fact that they have historically trash talked this Pittsburgh team and Pittsburgh has historically beaten them down w/ regularity.

Why do I like this play? Aside from the fact my system thinks Pittsburgh wins by 6 and I can get 10 on it, and aside from the fact that my trends and research show great value in taking a double digit divisional dog, I personally believe this Steelers team to be overrated. I think there are several achillies heels on this team that are ready to be exposed. Do the Bengals have the capability of exposing them? Not to the extent to make me feel good about the play. Do I have much faith in Marvin Lewis? Definitely not. But can Cincy get the cover? I will, for three hours on Sunday, put my faith in them and hope for the best.