The truth about extremely low or extremely high totals

The average total in the NFL is 41, and has been for some time. As we know, the public loves the overs. But how has the over/under fared over time?

I posted lessons on underdogs earlier, so here’s one on Totals.

The avg line is 41 for the NFL. 51% of the time, the final score is below the total. Not enough to make money betting on all unders. But are there situations when it’s more likely to be an under based on the opening line? Since setting the line is all about perception, what happens when a low line is released? How does the public react, and how do the games usually end?

For this study, I am only looking at opening lines, and I am looking at all games from the 2000-2001 season onward. I’ll start w/ the notion that the public loves an Over. And it’s true. Overs and Favorites, the public will eat them up.

See my prior work on underdogs, and you’ll see that betting dogs (smartly) will net you some cash, and betting unders (smartly) will do the same.

But here I’d like to share a sports wagering slogan you may have heard before: "Take the Under on a low total and the Over on a high total".

Think about that for a second. Wouldn't it be the opposite? Well, contrarian thinking goes a long way in sports betting.

Now, let’s crunch the numbers to see if it works out: Taking unders in games with a 41 point total or below: (Note – first note that these are opening lines, not closing. If snow was predicted and the line dropped from 40 down to 35, the O/U would show up based on the opening line of 40 in my calculation.)

As you can see, games where the opening number is avg (41) or right around there, between 39 and 41, you are already hitting over 52% (the magic number where you can break even despite the juice) if you take the unders. But once you get lower, between 35 and 38, you see more overs hitting. However, once you cross over into the very low totals of 31 and 32, you are hitting very high % on the unders. Everyone sees a 31 or 32 and would take the over, but that is not a sharp play.

Of course, if you look at the # of games that actually post totals that low, you’ll see that only 18 games in the last 7 years have had an opening total of 32 or below. That’s just over 2.5 per season. However, if you took the under on all those games, you would have won 67% of them, which is a solid, solid profit.

Now lets take the overs in games w/ a 42 point total or higher:

As you can see, from 42 points all the way up until 52 point totals, you have to pick your spots if you want an over, as more than half the time the game will go under. Which is why finding those unders may be easier than finding the overs. However, once you get to point totals that open at 53 or higher, you’re in a prime market for making some good $ by taking the overs.

Again, like w/ very low totals, you don’t see totals 53 or higher that much, just over 4.25 times per season. But take heed when you do see them…

Once again, the public sees an extreme number, and will generally go to the other side.

So the lessons here:

1. Opening numbers of 32 and below, don’t be scared to take the under


2. Opening numbers of 53 and higher, don’t be scared to take the over


3. In between, pick your spots. Unders hit more than overs, but don’t be scared to take either if you have done your homework.


4. Last but not least – don’t think that 35 and 36 are so low that it will go under, and don’t think that 50, 51, and 52 are so high that it will go over. Based on historical information, 35 and 36 point totals are more likely to go over than any total less than 52. Likewise, 51 and 52 are more likely to go under than any point total greater than 32. So don’t get carried away and think that “52 is high, take the over”.