MNF

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First a side note: Please check your e-mail tomorrow (Tuesday) as I will be sending out important information regarding my system plays and personal plays for Week 10.

As for MNF:

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you or persuade you.

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched.

System:

Side: Redskins, winning by 5
Total: I've got a predicted line in my top system of 41.5. It is very close to a play but is a fraction off being recognized as a top play, however, only if you get the Over 36.5. If you can only get 37 it would not be as close to a play on the over (obviously). Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5.

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith. For the Skins, will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hardhitting home loss to the defending superbowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, that remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

For the Redskins:

• In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
• In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.
• Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.
• Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
• Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.
• The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.
• The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.
  

• Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).
• In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS
• Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

For the Steelers:

• Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog
• The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.
• Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.
• The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.