Just wanted to share some info. Betting is all about public perception. And it helps when ESPN is constantly blabbing all day about how the Chiefs drew the perfect matchup against the Colts. Saying how great KC's run O is and how terrible Indy's is. That is, it helps if you plan on betting on Indy. Keeps the line down.
I wanted to see if all this hype is "shock" to get people to tune in, or if it is actual fact.
ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league
We all know that over the course of the season, Indy has the #32 ranked rush D. That is a truth.
But you want to know something? Over the last 3 games, KC's run D has been WORSE than Indy's. KC's D has allowed 5.8 ypr to Indy's 4.8 ypr over the last 3 games. Neither are good, but KC has been terrible. Now I realize that KC played the #2 and #4 teams in the league in ypr during that span. While the toughest Indy faced was the #11 ypr offense of the Dolphins. Which is why I am an "ask why" type of guy. So let's ask: "Why"
Let's look closer at how the rush D's of each team perform in recent games. We already looked at the last 3 overall. Now let's look at the last 4 home games for Indy, and the last 4 road games for KC.
Indy's 4 most recent home games were vs. Miami, Cincy, Philly and Buffalo
Indy allowed 4.8 ypr to these teams (which happens to be the same as they gave over the last 3).
Those teams have an average rank (for rush offense) of 16.5, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.1 ypr
KC's 4 most recent road games were at Oak, SD, Cle and Mia
KC allowed 5.1 ypr to these teams
And those 4 teams have an average rank of 15.5, again, smack in the middle of the league, and on the season rushed for a cum avg of 4.2 ypr
Conclusion: Whether looking at the last 3 overall or the last 4 home/away, Indy's miserable rush D has been better than KC's.
Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two
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ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup
If you want to look at rush O to see if there is some drastic reason why KC will dominate more on the ground than Indy, let's look at the rush O for both teams.
Over the last 3 games, KC has rushed for an avg of 4.1 ypr and Indy has averaged 4.4 ypr. Again, suprising advantage to Indy. Let's ask "Why?"
Looking again to the most recent 4 road/home games:
KC ran for an average of 4.4 ypr in their last 4 road games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.0 ypr on the season.
Indy ran for an average of 4.7 ypr in those last 4 home games. Those 4 teams they faced gave up an avg of 4.2 ypr on the season.
Conclusion A: Despite the fact that Indy is a passing team (#2 in the league), they have been running the ball better than KC recently (L3), and recently at home (L4 @ H).
Who else may have KC drawn in the WC? I realize not the Jets, but let's include both NYJ and NE shall we:
NYJ have allowed 4.5 ypr their last 3, and NE has allowed 5.6 ypr their last 3. Remember, Indy has allowed 4.8 ypr their L3. So it's not like Indy (lately) has been absolutely flat out terrible in run D compared to other AFC WC teams.
Looking more at Myth #2, why not see if Indy didn't draw the perfect matchup?
No AFC WC team has allowed more passing yards the L3 than KC, who is allowing 189 ypg in the air. They also are tied w/ NE for the most ypattempt. KC is also allowing 62% completions in the L3, despite facing the high powered passing offenses of Jac, Oak and SD!!! And as we said earlier, we know how KC's rushing D has been lately - terrible.
Conculsion B: Indy may have drawn a better matchup than KC.
Truth #2 - Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.
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ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field
The other thing to remember is Indy is the best in the league at converting on 3rd down. Converting on 56%. KC is only converting on 40% of 3rd downs. And that is 40% on the season, as well as 40% in their L3 road games. In their L3 overall, they have only converted on 33% of 3rd downs!
The hype is that KC will be able to control the clock w/ the run game and keep Peyton off the field. Of course KC will try to do this, many teams have as well. But often times it is Peyton who is converting those 3rd downs and leading his team on time consuming drives (and putting up points on the other end). In the Cincy game, Indy scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter after 11 minutes of offense and scored another 14 in the 3rd quarter after 9 minutes of offense.
Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.
Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.
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Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game
This plays off of Myth #3 and actually Myth #1 as well.
I also don't buy into all this ESPN "Indy must jump out to a big lead" talk. Are they suggesting Indy strategize to go up early, quickly? Doesn't every single team try to go up early, quickly? If they are suggesting Indy must get overly risky just to get a lead, I find that hard to believe.
Indy will be able to throw and run on KC, so long as the play calling is effective and unpredictable. On Defense, why should they be scared of the Chiefs running game any more than other opponents they have faced at home? As I said earlier, they have faced teams that average 4.1 ypr, and now are facing KC who has averaged 4.4 ypr recently, and 4.2 ypr over the course of the season. Not that much different than what they are used to facing. Sure, LJ is a star in the league, so combining that w/ Indy having the #32 rush D on the season hypes up the media.
Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.
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Review of Myth and Truth:
ESPN Myth #1 - Indy has the worst rushing D in the league
Truth #1 - While neither rush D is respectable, KC has actually had a worse run D than Indy during the past month or two
ESPN Myth #2 - KC drew the perfect matchup, Indy couldn't have drawn a worse matchup
Truth #2 - Considering potential AFC opponents, Indy drew as good if not a better matchup w/ KC's defense (both in the air and on the ground) than KC drew w/ Indy's D.
ESPN Myth #3: KC will easily control the clock, and keep Peyton off the field
Truth #3 - Due to Indy's ability to convert on 3rd downs, as well as KC's poor pass and run D of late, Indy should be keeping KC off the field.
ESPN Myth #4: Indy MUST jump out to a big lead, or they don't have a chance against KC's ability to control the game
Truth #4 - Indy should at a minimum be "alive" in this game, even if they go don't jump out to an early lead, and even if they go down 1TD. Indy should be able to sustain drives and put up points on KC, and by no means will they need to overextend themselves and "force" things early in the game just to jump out to an early lead.
Final Comments:
It will not surprise me to see Indy run (yes I said run, and also pass) the ball effectively against KC and control the game. Mixing it up, game planning and game management are of course the key. Indy has recently beaten Cincy and Philly at home by an average of 21 points. However they have had close victories over Buf and Mia by an average of 3 points. I see this game falling somewhere in between. By no means am I suggesting Indy -7 is a top play or a superb play. I simply feel it is the right side.
Does Indy have problems w/ their run D? Yes, that is true, they do. Will it cost them THIS game? I will bet that it does not.
As I state above: Do I see KC running the ball a lot? Yes. Do I see KC sustaining several long, scoring drives? Yes. But do I see them doing it as effectively and as frequently as Indy? No.
My system shows Indy by 5.1 points. The only real thing I have in KC's favor is fewer full season penalty yardage, but if you look closer at that number you will see in the last 5 road games, KC has averaged 78 penalty ypg and Indy's L5 @ H are only averaging 69 penalty ypg. So that swings back to Indy's favor.
When you dig deeper than the system (doing the hard part and capping the game), I find a higher probability of Indy covering 6.5 than I do KC covering 7. I don't like to lay 7 points, so I will only lay some on -6.5, and work w/ Indy on a few teasers for a larger amount.
I will plan on laying 6.5 w/ Indy and will also tease down to pickem and pair it with Dallas +10. I may also look at other potential matchups on Sunday to tease with Indy pickem.
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