Just thought I'd share two of my writeups from games earlier in the playoffs. Neither are as detailed as the Super Bowl, but should give you some good reading:
An unbiased breakdown of Indy/NE
I don't like looking at full season stats, especially at this time of year. If we take the L3 Home/Away, it gives us 1 playoff game for each team (Pats at SD, Indy vs KC) as well as how they finished up their season. The stats I will note below are L3, unless otherwise stated. Since I will be referring to these L3 H/A throughout, I will show you the teams that are included in this sample:
NE: Road games @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21
Indy: Home games vs. KC W 23-8, MIA W 27-22, and CIN W 34-16
Rushing Defenses:
We know that Indy has shored up their run D substantially in the playoffs. But they were doing so to close out the season. They really shut down KC and made them one dimensional, and played adequately against Bal. They are facing a more balanced team w/ NE. NE has averaged 4.1 ypr while Indy has given up 4.5 ypr. However on the flip side, Indy has rushed for 4.2 ypr and NE has given up 5.3 ypr. But remember, NE has gone up against some tough running offenses, who averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Meanwhile the offenses Indy went up against averaged only 4.0 ypr.
So both defenses are giving up a little more on the ground than the teams they face have averaged on the season.
In their first meeting, NE averaged 4.5 ypr while Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But as you know, Indy has improved on its rush D of late, and NE got those 4.5 ypr at a time when Indy had allowed on avg 5.4 ypr in it's 7 games prior to NE.
Rushing Offenses:
As the stats above show, both teams are averaging just over 4.1 ypr on offense. NE has produced exactly what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 4.1 ypr. Indy has produced 4.2 ypr, a hair above what opposing teams have allowed on avg, which was 3.9 ypr.
In their first meeting this year, Indy could only muster 2.1 ypr against NE, while NE averaged 4.5 against Indy. I am confident we will see a better showing than Indy's 2.1 ypr from the earlier game. This comes down to the gameplaning, which I will touch on at the end. In that first matchup NE tried to stop Indy's run game and make Peyton beat them. We will see if they try the same thing, considering Peyton was able to get the job done up in NE.
Passing Defenses:
Both teams have held their opponents to fairly low pass completion %. Indy held their opponents to 52% and NE held their opponenets to 51%. However it becomes more obvious who has the advantage in terms of defensive philosophy and talented secondaries when you look at the YPA and YPC. Indy has held their opponents to 4.9 ypa and 9.4 ypc. NE on the other hand has allowed 6.7 ypa and 13.2 ypc.
Now let's talk for a moment in terms of ypc during the season. Over the entire season, NE has allowed 10.9 ypc. There were only 9 teams w/ worse ypc than NE. I'll name them just to give you a comparsion: Atl, Ari, NYG, Dal, TB, GB, StL, Cle and Was. On the season, these teams averaged about 11.5 ypc.
NE the last 3 road games has averaged 13.2 ypc!
Well, who are these great QBs who are throwing deep and connecting on NE? None other than Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, and David Garrard. Not one QB who was their team's starting/primary QB last year.
Now I realize in their L3 home games, Indy did go up against Cleo Lemon in one game. However they faced a veteran Trent Green and the #4 rated (in terms of ypa) Carson Palmer as well.
In their last matchup, both QBs completed about 56% of their passes, but Indy averaged 16.3 ypc compared to 10.0 ypc for NE. As I said earlier, it may have been Belichick's plan to stuff the run, which is why Indy only averaged 2.1 ypr. But Peyton clearly burned his secondary which has given up huge plays throughout the season, especially of late.
Passing Offenses:
NE has averaged 61% completions compared to 73% thrown by Indy. NE has been throwing for a respectable 6.4 ypa which is about what they averaged on the season. Indy is slightly better w/ 7.2 ypa. Since Indy has been completing a much larger % of their passes, you can therefore guess that NE has had a slightly better ypc over the L3. 10.6 ypc vs. 9.9 ypc for Indy.
Both teams have been doing excellent at avoiding sacks by utilizing shorter drops, less time in the pocket, and faster developing plays. Against SD, Brady threw for only 5.5 ypa and 10.4 ypc. It is obvious from the numbers and by watching Peyton, he is doing the exact same. This cuts down on negative plays (so long as you don't turn the ball over), and keeps the momentum going of the offense, and prevents forcing 3rd and long situations.
Turnovers have been a highlight of both NE and Indy. It's well documented that Peyton has thrown 1 TD and 5 Ints this postseason. However Brady isn't exactly playing lights out himself, coming off a 2 TD, 3 Int performance against SD.
In their last matchup, as stated above, Indy averaged 16.3 ypc vs only 10.0 ypc for NE. Brady threw 0 TDs and 4 Ints (2 were on tipped passes).
Other Key Statistics:
Penalities: NE has had problems w/ penalties recently. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. NE has averaged 7.7 defensive penalties for 81 ypg. That is compared to Indy's D averaging only 2.3 defensive penalties for 14 ypg. On offense, it is not quite as bad for NE, but they are still averaging over 2 more offensive penalties for 35 more ypg than Indy's offense.
3rd down %: We know how critical 3rd downs are in the NFL. And NE simply is not getting it done on the road. They have averaged 36% 3rd down completions. That includes the 24% game at SD last weekend. Meanwhile you have the Colts, who are #2 in the league during the regular season, and averaging 53% their L3 home. Indy'd D has been downright stingy, allowing less than 30% 3rd downs to their opponents. NE's D has been good too, allowing opposing teams only 35% 3rd down completions. Indy (again) has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this one.
Red Zone %: Indy has the advantage here as well. Better on offense (67% vs to NE's 55%) and better on defense (allowing 30% conversions vs Indy's 50%).
I decided to take a closer look at the defenses.
Indy seems to have stepped up as of late, and I hear the stat that NE has allowed the 2nd fewest points on the year. And the fewest in Pats history. So I wanted to see how they really rank in several key categories w/ the NFL
So here is a comparison of NE's Defense over the season. I will discuss how they did in the regular season, then how they did in their last 3 overall, and finally how they did in their L3 road games.
I will then compare those numbers to how Indy has fared in it's L3 home games. So keep in mind, when discussing NE's L3 and L3 road schedule:
Last 3 Games: @SD W 24-21, vs. NYJ W 37-16, @TEN W 40-23
Last 3 Road games: @SD W 24-21, @TEN W 40-23, and @JAC W 24-21
PPG
Reg Season: NE ranked 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore, allowing only 14.8 ppg during the season. The teams they played averaged 20.8 ppg over the season. So NE held them to a solid 6 ppg below their avg.
Last 3: NE has allowed 20.0 ppg in the last 3 games. The teams they played averaged 23.6 ppg over the season. So that is a respectable 3.6 ppg below their average.
L3 Road: NE has allowed 21.7 ppg in L3 Road. The teams they played averaged 24.8 ppg over the season. So similar to their L3, they held the opposition to 3.1 ppg below average.
Just for Comparison: The L3 for Indy, they have allowed 12.0 ppg, and the teams they played averaged 19.7 ppg over the season. So Indy hel them to 7.7 ppg below their average.
Rushing D - YPR
Reg Season: NE allowed only 3.9 ypr on the regular season. That was good for 7th in the league.
Last 3: NE allowed 4.8 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.4 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.
L3 Road: NE allowed 5.3 ypr. Opponents averaged 4.9 ypr on the season. Their opponents gained (once again) 0.4 more ypr vs NE than they averaged on the season.
Just for Comparison: The L3 home games for Indy, they allowed 4.5 ypr, and the teams they played averaged 4.0 ypr. Their opponents gained 0.5 more ypr vs Indy than they averaged on the season.
Rushing D - TDs
Reg Season: NE allowed 11 rushing TDs on the year, good for 9th in the league. That was an average of 0.69 rush TDs/game.
Last 3: NE allowed 4 rushing TDs. That is an avg of 1.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.3 rush TDs/game on the year. So they break even.
L3 Road: NE allowed 6 rushing TDs, that is an avg of 2.0 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.4 rush TDs/game on the year. So NE allowed 0.6 more rushing TDs/game than their opponents gained on average.
Just for Comparison: The L3 home for Indy, they allowed 1 rushing TD, which is an avg of 0.3 rush TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 0.8 rush TDs/game on the year, so Indy allowed 0.5 fewer rushing TDs/game allowed than their opponents gained on average. If we look at L3 overall, Indy has not allowed a single rushing TD in their L3.
Passing D - YPC
Reg Season: NE allowed 10.9 ypc on the year, which is 22nd in the league.
Last 3: NE allowed 13.0 ypc. Opponents averaged 10.9 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.1 ypc more than they averaged on the season.
L3 Road: NE allowed 13.2 ypc. Opponents averaged 11.2 ypc. NE allowed them to gain 2.0 ypc more than they averaged on the season.
Just for Comparison: Whether L3 overall or L3 home, Indy is allowing 8.9 and 9.4 ypc respectively. Their opponents averaged 10.3 ypc (L3 overall) and 10.7 ypc (L3 home). Indy has held them to about 1.3 ypc less than what they averaged on the season.
Passing D - % Complete
Reg Season: NE allowed 56.8 % completions in the reg season, which is 8th in the league.
Last 3: NE has allowed only 48.6 % completions. Their opponents averaged 59% on the year. So NE has allowed 10.4% fewer completions than those teams average.
L3 Road: NE allowed 50.5 % completions. Their opponents averaged 57.4% on the year. So NE has allowed 6.9% fewer completions than those teams average.
Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 56.2 % completions L3 and 52.3 % completions L3 home. But this is against teams who averaged 60.2 % (both L3 and L3 home). So Indy is allowing between 4 % and 7.9 % fewer completions than those teams average.
Passing - TDs
Reg Season: NE allowed only 10 passing TDs on the year, which is #1 in the league. It is an avg of 0.63 pass TDs/game.
Last 3: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.
L3 Road: NE has allowed only 1 passing TD their L3 road, which is an avg of 0.3 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged 1.1 pass TDs/game, so NE held them to 0.8 pass TDs/game fewer than what they average on the season.
Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed 2 passing TDs their L3, and 2 passing TDs their L3 home. That is an avg of 0.7 pass TDs/game. Their opponents averaged between 1.1 pass TDs/game and 1.3 pass TDs/game. So Indy has held them to between 0.4 and 0.6 fewer passing TDs/game.
Red Zone Conversion %
Reg Season: NE has allowed only 34% TDs once a team is inside the red zone. This is good for #2 in the league.
In the playoffs: NE has allowed a 50% TD conversion rate once inside the red zone. This is 16% more than during the regular season. However the teams they faced, SD and NYJ, during the regular season converted 58% of red zones into TDs. So NE held them to 8% less than their average.
Just for Comparison: Indy has allowed a 33% TD conversion rate in the playoffs, During the regular season they allowed a 59% TD rate. So they allowed 26% fewer red zone TDs thus far in the playoffs. In addition, the teams they faced, KC and Balt, during the regular season converted on 51% of red zones into TDs. So Indy held them to 18% less than their average.
To Summarize:
During the regular season, NE's D has been great (top 3) on the season at PPG allowed ,the fewest passing TDs allowed, and Red Zone TDs allowed.
They have been decent (top ten) in rushing ypr allowed, rushing TDs allowed, completion % allowed.
The only stat they have been very poor at during the season is passing ypc allowed.
However, in the most recent games, they have improved in a couple areas but slipped noticably in the rest:
Good:
They have been doing well at pass completion % - less now than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.
And they also have been doing well at passing TDs, allowing fewer than in the regular season, and less than opposition average.
Neutral:
They are allowing more PPG (though still fewer than opposition average).
They are allowing a higher red zone TD conversion % (though still lower than opposition average).
Bad:
They are allowing more rushing ypg (5.3 ypg) which is more than opposition average.
They are allowing more average rushing TDs, and more than their opposition average.
They are allowing more passing ypc and more than their opposition average.
The other thing to draw from this is how Indy's D has compared to NE's recently. Compared to NE:
Advantage Indy
Fewer PPG and fewer than opposition avg
Fewer rushing TDs and fewer than opposition avg
Fewer passing ypc and fewer than opposition avg
Lower Red Zone TD conversion % and lower than opposition avg
Advantage NE
Passing TDs allowed - NE allows fewer and a lower avg than opposition avg.
Push
Rush ypr is a push, because while Indy is averaging fewer ypr allowed, their opposition gains less, so that one is too close to deem an advantage.
Pass completion % is a push, because while NE is averaging a lower completion %, their opposition throws for a lower % on avg, so the comparision is too close to deem an advantage.
Overall:
There are several ways to look at this game. You can look at recent statistics, you can look at their last couple of matchups, or you can just take a gut feel. The last one would what a guy does who says "throw the stats out the window" for this key game.
Any way you slice it, I think the edge falls into Indy's court. As big an issue that has been made of Indy's run game, there is an even worse problem w/ NE's pass D. I am not suggesting that Phillip Rivers, Vince Young and David Garrard sliced up NE's pass D, afterall NE allowed only 1 passing TD and took 3 Ints. But, those 3 QBs averaged 51% completions for 13.2 ypc against NE. They now have to face one of the deadliest QBs in the game today, who did carve NE up the last 2 meetings.
I wanted to introduce this final look at the QBs before I complete my analysis. I realize that for several years now, since about 01-02, when NE won their first SB that Tom Brady has been more "clutch" than any other QB in the league. I know that on ESPN they always say if you want a guy for 1 game, who would you take, and everyone says Brady. I won't dispute that. But I want to look at this season and see what Manning has done vs. what Brady has done. Granted, these aren't "Clutch" games during the regular season.
But what about "Clutch" situations?
What about when your team is losing? What about in the 2nd half of the game? What about on 3rd down?
This year, Manning has been pretty remarkable:
When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 119.1 is higher than on first or second down.
And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.
Comparing that to Brady:
When the Pats are losing, his rating of 72.4 is lower than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 86.1 is lower than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 76.8 is lower than on first or second down.
And on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when you need it the most, his rating is 67.6.
So while I am not stating that Peyton Manning will be more "Clutch" this weekend, Peyton has been extremely "Clutch" in key situations throughout this season, and Brady has not really rose to the occasion. Will Brady revert to his "Clutch" form this weekend, in the most "Clutch" game of all thus far this season? That is what Pats backers are banking on. We will see if it happens...
So looking back to what I have presented, I see the obvious key being the Colts pass offense vs. the NE pass defense. A close second will be the turnover battle, and lastly but important nonetheless, the Colts rush defense vs. the NE rush offense. A lot depends on how Belichick approaches this game - no one can predict what he will do. If he takes away the run, Peyton can and will beat him in the air. If he gives a more balanced defensive assault, I look for a more even game.
To the guys who say "throw the stats out the window": I see a balanced Colts team who is primed for its shot. This is not the same NE team from 01-05. Indy has won the last 2 in NE, and in both games Peyton was outstanding. (Throwing 66% completions for 324 ypg, 5 total TDs and 2 Ints.) I see a NE team that is well coached, has overcome the odds to get where they are, and are riding the wings of percieved dominance. They realistically were lucky to leave SD w/ a win. Indy must look to the big plays on offense that they avoided against Balt and KC. Use the run to set up the short pass and come back w/ a deep pass. NE gives up big pass plays and this should be the focus of Indy's attack.
This game is not a sure thing whatsoever. In my mind and on paper I am predicting the way it plays out, and in the most likely scenario I come up with, I see a 24-20 Colts victory. But as we know, one single play could be the difference in this game. They guy betting on the Pats has to be thinking the headlines on Monday are what they have been during the Pats superbowl run:
"Manning Chokes, Brady is Clutch, Belichick is a Genius"
But again, this is not that same Pats team, and this Colts team has the will to win, by any number of ways. The Colts will run if they need to, they will pass if they want to, they will play D and allow you to only score FGs, and they will win by kicking FGs. This is not a one-dimensional team, and they are playing as cohesive right now as they have played all year.
That is why the best play this weekend, in my opinion, is Indy to win the SB at +150.
For a couple of reasons. First, I feel OK about -3, I like -2.5 better, but I like ML the most. But right now you would only get Indy ML for around -165. That is pretty harsh. As it stands now, Pinny has -3 at -118, and -2.5 at -144. Both are tough to swallow.
Second, if Indy wins this game, I think you will see them installed as fairly substantial favorites, well above 3 points. If you predict a close SB game that may be won by the underdog or may result in a close loss to the Colts, you could shoot for the middle and take the points. Either way, you now have the favorite at + money and don't have to lay points.
The only reason not to take Indy +150 to win the SB is if you think the NFC winner will beat the Colts. Then you could cough up and take Indy ML this weekend, or more reluctantly, Indy -2.5.
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