2008 Week 8 Plays

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2008 Week 8 Plays:

Bal-7
Mia +2
NE-7
Added Sunday: Car-4

Writeups:

Bal-7

• Since 2004, the Raiders are 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road as a non-divisional underdog of 7+ points, losing by an average of 18 points.
• Since 2003, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in non-divisional games w/ a total under 39 points.
• In the last 10 seasons, Oakland is 0-10 vs teams in the Eastern time zone, including 2-8 ATS, when being made a TD+ dog. On average they have failed to cover an avg 10 point line by 8 points and lost by 18.
• After a win as a home underdog and going on the road as an underdog, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992, including 0-2 ATS the last two years. On average, they have failed to cover a 7 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 15.
• Teams who won by 3 or less as home dogs last week and now are road dogs of 7+ are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in the last 10 seasons, on avg losing by 16.
• The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after winning on the road as an underdog and then being favored at home, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 2006. Their only non-cover was as 12.5 point favorites in a divisional game in 2006, which they won by 10.
  

Remarkably, this is the only home game the Ravens play in a span of 7 full weeks. They played at home Oct 5 vs. the Titans, and have been on back to back road games. After this game, they have 3 straight road games, not returning to play another home game until the weekend before Thanksgiving. At home, the Ravens hold opponents to 11 points and put up 18. The Ravens are a very good team at home, and although Flacco has had his share of problems against top defenses, he has performed much better at home. He put together a nice road game in Miami, and I look for him to build off of that in the friendly confines of his home stadium.

A little statistical analysis which I don't normally provide: Oakland, while ranking #7 in ypr offensively, is not strong a rush team as it seems. They are definitely above avg, but not #7 in the league. They have faced, in order, the #31, 32, 17, 18, 19 ranked rushing defenses in terms of ypr prior to last week. Last week they faced the NYJ, who are #4, and Fargas averaged only 2.6 ypr and McFadden totaled 39 yards. And that was at home, which Oak won by 3 in OT and scored only 1 TD, despite being +3 in turnover margin and in the NYJ red zone 3 times. On the road, in Baltimore, Oakland will need a much better effort from their running game, especially when Bal leads the NFL in TOP (33:45 per game). Oak is 31st in the NFL in 3rd down conversions. Oakland is 0-9 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road "sandwich games" (H-A-H). While Oakland performed very well in its first east coast game this season, I look for Baltimore to control the ball and the game, and will lay the touchdown.

Mia+2

• Buffalo is a mere 2-8 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite of less than 1 FG, including 0-4 SU and ATS since 1999.
• Divisional home dogs who are off back to back losses who face a team off a win and the line is less than a FG are 22-9 ATS since 1990. If the line is 1 or 1.5, the underdog is 12-3 ATS since 1990.
• In the first 12 weeks of the season, if one team has 3+ wins more than its opponent but is a road fav of less than 3 points, they are 2-9 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won SU by an average of 5 points.
• One other trend that Miami falls under has gone 26-8-1 ATS since 2002, including 16-2-1 ATS since 2005.
  

With the exception of the Houston loss, where Miami was up by 5 w/ 1:40 left and Hou drove the length of the field to win w/ 0:03 left, the three losses Miami had were to teams who were very solid against the run: Bal #1 ypr (allowed), NYJ #4 ypr, Ari #14 ypr. In addition, Ari was a road game and the 2nd game of the season. Miami has come a long way from week 2. Their victories have come against teams they can run the ball on, including NE #25 ypr (allowed) and SD #18 ypr.

Buffalo is #17 in the league in ypr allowed, right near SD. But on the road, they have faced Ari (#31 ypr), StL (#16 ypr, #25 ypg) and they got lucky to face Jac when all their O-Line was beaten up. Jac averaged less than 2 ypr in week 1 and against Buf week 2, 3.6 ypr. Chances are, Buffalo's overall ypr allowed would decrease even more if Jac had the same running game they have now. This will be the toughest test yet for Buffalo to stop Miami's rushing attack, which is not spectacular, but is averaging 112 ypg and 4.1 ypr, good for 16th in the league, despite facing Bal and NYJ, both in the top 4 for rushing defense allowed.

I see a 5-1 Buffalo team who is eager to get its first divisional game won, against a Miami team that is looking to stay above .500 and looking to prove that upstart Buffalo is not going to start the season 6-1 in their house. Miami is not as bad as the final score looked against Baltimore, in fact, teams who lost to the Ravens the week before and are now underdogs of less than 1 TD are 11-4 ATS since 2003. Baltimore simply makes teams look bad, especially teams who like to run the ball. It may not be the cleanest game of the day, but Miami certainly has the potential to win this game at home.

NE-7

• Teams who are off back to back underdog victories and are underdogs of 7+ points are 3-11-2 ATS since 1997 and 1-15 SU. On average they have lost by 14 points. If on the road, these teams are 0-14 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.
• Since 2006, teams on the road have gone 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 SU.
• Teams who have been underdogs of 7+ points for 3 weeks in a row but who are off a home upset win and now on the road are 0-10 SU since 1990, losing by an average of 16 points. If the line is not a double digit spread, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 20 points.
• Teams who won as 7+ point home underdogs the week before by benefiting by a +4 turnover ratio are 0-5 ATS when playing as 6+ road dogs the following week. On average, failing to cover a 7+ point line by an additional 9 and losing by 16.
  
• Since taking over New England, the Patriots have had 15 weekends where they played back to back home games without a bye in between. Of those 15, six were non-divisional home games not on MNF. The Patriots went 5-1 ATS, their only non-cover was a 10 point win as a 13 point favorite in 2006.
• NE also falls into another trend which is 20-6 ATS since 2002 and is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons, including 6-1 ATS last season. On average covering a 10 point line and winning SU by 18 points.

I won't get into all the details of how St. Louis pulled out two remarkable underdog upsets, but suffice it to say, turnovers played a HUGE role. St. Louis on the road this season has generated, wait for it, ONE touchdown on a drive that started in their own territory. And in fact, that ONE TD came in Seattle, a team who is giving up 29 ppg. At the Redskins, the Rams scored their lone TD on a 76 yard fumble return. They had zero TDs at Philly. So you could also say that the Rams have scored exactly ONE offensive TD on the road this season, against the hapless Seahawks.

Since 2007, the Rams average less than 13 points on the road. Their 3 wins ATS out of 11 games came when they won the turnover battle, getting 2+ turnovers more than their opponent. If you take out the 37-29 upset victory over the Saints last season to earn their first win, the Rams scored less than 10 ppg average in their other 10 road games the past two seasons.

As far as the Rams playing outdoors, they have been extremely fortunate. Not that the weather will be bad in NE at kick (60 degrees) but the last time the Rams played in a northern city that did not have a dome and it was Week 7 or beyond was Buffalo and GB in back to back weeks in 2004. They lost both, scoring 17 in each and allowing 37 vs. Buf and 45 vs. GB.

Fortunately for NE, Cassel has only thrown 1 Int in his 3 home games. NE certainly is no world beater and I can see angles, particularly turnovers, which could lead to St. Louis winning SU. However, if the game plays out the way on average that it should, I think NE earns a cover and wins by 10.

Sunday AM UPDATE:

In reviewing my totals, the top play from my top system (5-2 YTD) is TB/Dal O40.5, however, I cannot firmly recommend this one as a play. Primarily due to Brad Johnson as QB. If Dal had Romo, I think this game does hit over the total. However, w/ the Cowboys secondary being banged up, it may somewhat even things out. If you are more of a risk-taker and you believe this game can go over, feel free to take the play.

The other total I was considering is at a site experiencing high winds and so I won't issue that as a play (Pit/NYG Over 42).

So officially, no totals to be issued but I wanted to share the play from my 5-2 system anyways.

My additional side selection is NOT a system play, but it is a play from my analysis:

Car -4

• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are not facing a non-divisional opponent as a home favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• After winning a divisional game by 10+ points the prior week, Carolina has not let down under John Fox vs. a non-divisional opponent the following week. They are 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an avg score of 25-3 and all four games went under.
• Since 2003, Arizona is 1-12 ATS playing on the road as dog of less than 7 in games outside their division in the NFC and are 0-13 SU.