MNF Update, System Results and Weekend Summary

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MNF Update:

I did not release a play for MNF because I felt the game would be close. My system had a play, but I did not release it simply because, although there was value, I was seeing trends for Indy and envisioning scenarios where Ten would have a tougher time covering than my system thought. For 3 quarters, my hunch was right. But they broke the game open in the 4th.

My system had Ten winning by 9, therefore 5 points of value, and in my Thursday update to Steve Czaban, I included that game along w/ my other five system plays for the week (total of 6 ATS). The system win last night improved the system to 4-1-1 ATS for Week 8 (80%), and improved the mark for the system since it started in Week 4 to 28-9-1 ATS (76%). I will update the text below to include the up-to-date record.

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System Results

A solid winning week here. Before I share a comment on the two pushes, I want to share how things are going w/ my computer system.

As I posted before, my computer system has been a guide to use in selecting plays. This week it was solid and worked out well. The 3 plays I did release to you from my system went 2-0-1 (Bal, Mia, NE). So we are back on track w/ me using it to pick winning plays.

I know a lot of you want to see all of the system plays and I respect that. For the past two weeks I have shared all my system plays with Steve Czaban and the First Team on FOX (great show and great bunch of guys, as you know).

What I do each week is I run the computer system, which provides a varitey of plays using different categories (top Home, top Dog, System #1, System #1, etc...) and then capture all the recommended ATS plays for the week. I then remove any play w/ key injury concerns (starting QB or RB primarily).

I know I posted this before, but since it started up for the year in Week 4, thru Week 6 (the week prior to sharing w/ the First Team), it went 20-6-1 (77%).

Week 7, as I sent to Czabe, it went 4-2 ATS (67%)
Week 8, this week, it went 4-1-1 ATS (80%)

So season to date, it has gone 28-9-1 ATS (76%), and in the two weeks I have shared it with them it has gone 8-3-1 (73%).

Two of the system generated plays I removed from this past week were KC+ and NO+, both due to injuries (KC was down to their 3rd string QB and RB Bush was out for NO). Both still won ATS (and NO won SU), but again, those do not count towards the record.

I also have two Overs systems, and two Unders systems. Historically my Overs hit better.

So far this season, my top Overs system (21-1 last year) is at 5-2 (71%).
My Overs system #2 won it's only selection on the weekend (NO/SD Over) and is at 11-6 (65%).
Last season my top overs system finished 95% and the second overs system finished at 79%.
My Unders systems historically get better later in the season, and this year looks to hold true. They were hitting 50% prior to this weekend, but went 4-0 this weekend and are now 9-5 (64%). Last season the unders finished at 58% and the season before at 66%.

I realize you guys would like to see all my plays, and I have considered it and just realize "it is under consideration". I wanted Czabe to track them and he can verify them to you. Again, I know this system works, it's worked for several years, and has not had a losing week at all so far this season.

However, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: My record so far this season, on picking games w/ the help of the system and releasing just a few games a week, has gone 21-8-2 (72%).

I can count on ZERO fingers the number of touts who are being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor who have released 30+ plays and are hitting above 72%.

There are many touts who are monitored by them, and they only post those who are above 50%. So when you look at their site and see it cut off at 50%, realize that there are numerous others below 50%. Per their grading sheet, there are 125+ services that are being tracked this season.

I want to bring this to your attention for a couple of reasons.

#1 - You guys want my system plays also, but doing things the way I have done them this season has resulted in a record that is unmatched by anyone I have seen tracked. 30+ plays and over 72%.

#2 - The majority of the touts who are being monitored release their plays for hundreds of dollars. Some guys release one single game for $70+ dollars! How much have you paid for my plays, which are doing better then theirs?

So yes, would you be winning even more if you had my system plays? Of course, they have done very well again this season. But I find it funny that some people still want to complain despite the fact that I am hitting at the rate I've been w/ my releases so far this season. Now, I will mention that if you have only followed my plays for a couple of weeks, you joined in at the worst possible time. But that was then. Absorbing two poor weeks, I am still 72% on the season, had an undefeated weekend in Week 8, and will look for the momentum to continue.

I also want you to realize it would be MUCH easier share a play by itself (no write-up) or a play with a generic writeup like many guys do. But I show you some trends and formulas I have, in addition to some statistical information. And you know if the play is backed by my computer system or not. I think it is a presentation that should not only help you make that single play, but my hope is you can learn from it and apply some of the trends or "line of thinking" towards your own handicapping in the future.

Please realize that I am not claiming to be the "best in the business", nor can I claim that I will hit 75% for the season or even that my future results will be as good as those YTD. But please tell me where you can get high percentage winning plays and write-ups/knowledge that you can actually learn from for 8 weeks so far this season? I don't know what will happen for Week 9, I can't predict if I have a winning week. But what I can tell you is I work as hard as I can and will continue as long as I keep at it to provide insight, analysis, and most of all, the best plays I can deliver.

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Weekend Summary

Now, I want to comment on some guys who ended up actually losing money on a undefeated week for me and for many who follow this site. I know the majority won this week, but I still will comment to those who did not:

The lines I post are the lines that are available online at the time of my newsletter. I sent out the plays FRIDAY AFTERNOON! That is plenty of time for you to get a good line. Anyone who could not get NE-7 either only has one shop and refused to buy to -7, or did not try hard enough. You generally should have several options when making a play:

1. Find the best line from a variety of outlets that you have. Maybe you can get the same line I post, maybe better, maybe worse.
2. Buy to whatever number you feel comfortable with.
3. Don't make a play.

#3 is the overriding point above all others. At any point I issue a play that you disagree with, no one is forcing you to make that play. Feel free to do whatever you want. If you can't get a solid line, again, feel free to not make a play. I can't tell you what to do if you only use a local and he's not at my number and he won't let you buy to it. I can't tell you what to do if you only use Pinnacle or The Greek (for example) and you can't get the number I post and don't want to buy to it.

But I can assure you, there is zero chance that I am simply posting a number that is not available online in order to tally up a win. I run my computer system on Tuesday. If I want, I can wager on plays whenever I want and use any choice of location to make the play. The point of this site is NOT to post plays that I can make. It is to help you guys make winning bets. For that reason, I post the line I can find at the time I send it out. Certainly, in many cases, lines move against me over the course of the week. I can get -6.5 -110 early in the week and by the time I e-mail it to you it's -7 -110. And maybe you don't make the play right away and you do so the next day and it's -7.5 -110. That is what happens to everyone in this business who releases plays to the public. But I'm not going to release -6.5 -110 if the line is now at -7.5. Those who have followed me for years know I don't play that game and never will.

There appears to be some confusion - my e-mail goes out on Friday or Saturday AM at the latest. I don't "post" the message on my website until Sunday. Therefore, if you are not getting the e-mail, of course you are not going to get these lines! And if you are just hanging out on the message boards on Sunday AM waiting for my post, you missed the whole boat. I've had some guys complain that by the time I posted the message on my website, the line was NE -8. If you got the e-mail I sent on Friday afternoon, it was -7. No one on this site should have waited until Sunday to play NE. No one.

Again, to reiterate, the the object of this site is for me to select games that hit at a high percentage for YOU, the follower, to win money on.

Carolina is another play that, at some places on Saturday, was -3.5 -110. On Sunday morning it was -4 at several places, and -4.5 at some others. I know it closed at -5 at many outlets, but again, I can't control what happens after I release a play. I won't release -4 unless I see some sites that have -4. If you have -4.5 or -5 and choose not to buy to -4, you really can't blame me for that. I'm not forcing you to buy down, nor am I forcing you to make a play at all.

To the guys who deal w/ local bookies who don't open shop until noon on Sunday(!!!), you already know this, but you won't be able to win much at that shop. Vegas lines already are shaded, and if you wait until the betting window is almost closed and the lines continue to move against you all week and all Sunday morning before you place your first wager, it is a recipe for disaster. Tim posted good advice in a comment from the previous post, so check that out.

It is unfortunate that this week we had two games of the four that had key numbers in the line and the game ended on those same key number. Anytime you have that situation, you are going to have a majority of pushes, and some losers and some winners. Yes, I have heard from guys who were able to go 4-0 this weekend due to buying points. Again, I don't recommend buying in general, as it forces your win % to increase in order to earn money. But there are occasions where it is wise and you can win if you are smart about it. The chances of another weekend where half of the plays I release push, and some people who get a worse line lose, are slim, but it may happen. I just ask for you to continue to use your best judgment and make sharp decision about your wagers and money management. After all, we all want to have more money at the end of the day than we started with.

Good luck and back later w/ MNF if I decide to release a play.