2008 Week 1

.
****Sunday PM Update - 7-1 to start the season. 2-0 on Thursday night, 5-1 on Sunday, with winners including Carolina, Philly, Buffalo, Philly Under and the Dal/Cle Under. Last year I started the first 3 weeks 11-1 in my personal plays. I released more than usual this week but did not water down the quality of them. Looking forward to another GREAT season!****

****Sat Afternoon Update - I've posted 5 selections below. I will be back on Sunday pre-game with any additional plays. As per usual, I am more cautious in Week 1 than I am later in the season. So while I like these wagers, I advise using smart money management. In addition, remember that my system plays have not kicked in, and those are the plays that I have become known for.****


****Quick Friday AM update - We started out strong, if you read this post the past couple days, you would have seen my take on the NYG/Was game. See the bottom of this entry.

At any rate, NYG covered and the game went under. Nice way to start off the season!

Back to the original thread, which will continue to be updated today and tomorrow, so check back. And if you want to receive "official" plays, sign up and when those start (in another week) you will have them direct to your e-mail and receive them sooner than anyone else who reads this or follows me on the messageboards. Now, back to the original weekly thread****
.
.
.
A few games I've researched and like the results....

Detroit
Buffalo
Carolina
Philly (w/ a lean towards the Under)
Dal/Cle Under

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

• Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.
• Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.
• With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

• When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.
  
• Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.
• Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under

• In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989.
• Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002.
  

A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under

• St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points.
  
• In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points.
• St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under.
  

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for Thursday's NYG/WAS game:

• The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

• Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):
• In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points
  

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

• In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points
• In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

If you think this line is too low to suck you in, what did you think when you saw the Week 1 lines of these defending SB champs:

01 Ravens
-9.5 vs. Chi W 17-6, ATS=W
02 Pats
+2.5 vs. Pit W 30-14, ATS=W
03 Bucs
+3 vs. Phi W 17-0, ATS=W
04 Pats
-3 vs. Ind W 27-24, ATS=W
05 Pats
-7.5 vs. Oak W 30-20, ATS=W
06 Steelers
-1 vs. Mia W 28-17, ATS=W
07 Colts
-6 vs NO W 41-10, ATS=W

Do any of those lines look fishy to you? Looking for action on the other side? The thing is, are you really that sharp to tell if a line is fishy or not? Because if you think NYG-3.5 bet to -4.5 is fishy, you may want to take a second look.

Preseason hype has surrounded the Giants in a negative way, from losing Osi and Strahan to other players lost from their SB team. Redskins march in w/ a new head coach, Jason Taylor, and ready to battle a division foe. To me, nothing fishy about the line whatsoever, based on present and past indications.