System Results to date and Totals Study

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Last night was a perfect example of what I was saying in the lack of value. I'm sure Ravens backers were fired up after the first half, but they found themselves lucky to only be down by 7 with 9:20 left in the game. Steelers lost multiple key players in that game and still beat the Ravens by 3. As a bettor, that was not the type of game you want your money on either side. It ended way too close to the line for comfort for either side. Which is why I passed. They don't always turn out like that, but in this case, it did and was good to pass on the game.

I wanted to give you an update on my system. I told you earlier, the system gets cranking the further along in the season we get. But, I've been pleased w/ the results thus far, moreso for the ATS systems than the totals, which I'll explain later.

As you know, this season is different in that I am not just sending out my system plays, I am weeding them down and also adding in other plays that my own research and logic show are prudent, and that's what you are getting each week. And that is my 14-4 (78%) ATS record. But my system has been doing well itself, and here are those records:

ATS Systems

I have two systems - a dog friendly system and a favorite friendly system.

• When both systems lean to the same side, the results have been solid. 19-12 ATS (61%) and if leaning towards the road team, 8-4 ATS (67%).
  
• Though not changing anything w/ the system from last year, I am evaluating the output more and categorizing it better. For instance, I'm looking at the top two home value plays for each system, each week. Sometimes these plays are the same for both my ATS systems, but from weeks two-four, the system went 5-2 ATS (71%). Last week combining the two, it had KC, Ten and Oak (2-1, where Oak really got burned in that cover).
• Top dogs from my favorite friendly system has gone 3-1 ATS (75%).
  
• Top 3 per week from both my dog and favorite systems have gone a combined 6-3 ATS the past two weeks (67%).
• Top five per week where both systems are in agreement are 5-2 ATS since week two (71%).
• Wrong team favored where both systems are in agreement is 4-2 ATS since week two (67%).

O/U Systems

• My top overs system has gone 7-3 (70%) the past two weeks.
• My secondary overs system has gone 7-5 (58%) the past two weeks.
• When both overs systems lean to the same side, the results have been 9-5-2 (64%).
• The unders systems have not fared as well, and the main reason is the number of overs so far this season, which I'll explain below.

To see how my system has fared in the past 2 years, go HERE.

Here is an article I wrote based upon my analysis of the Overs/Unders thus far in 2008:

Uncanny amount of overs so far, and Analysis

So far this year, overs have gone 34-24-2 (59%). The last 5 years, from 2003-2007, there were an average through four weeks of 26-33-1 (44%). That is a full 15% increase in the amount of overs from average results. The last season that was close to this average was 2002, when overs went 32-28 (53%) through four weeks. Still less definitely less than the 59% we've seen this year. In fact, you'd have to go back to 97 to find a higher % of overs (61%).

There are a number of things that you then have to consider.

#1 - Did rule changes affect the overs?
#2 - If no, what could we expect from the rest of the season?

I'll first share a chart with you I put together, then walk you through my conclusions:


#1 - As you can see, seasons which had a large % of overs in the first 4 weeks (above 50%) were the only season with a decrease in the % of overs (2nd column from the right) the rest of the season.

#2 - Overall, overs hit only around 49% for the season, which is why playing overs in general (and not targeting specific games) is square and you would not see that 52.4% needed to gain a profit @ -110 juice.

#3 - After starting out very favorable to overs, the season ending % in those seasons (97, 00, 02) finished very close to the average 49%.

#4 - If we project that we will finish this season close to 49%, Overs will only be hitting at 46% the rest of the season, or (projecting a standard amount of pushes) -15 games under .500 the rest of the season.

#5 - If we projected the start to the season (34-24-2) at 59% over the last 13 weeks, the last 13 weeks would see 117-80-7, or +37 games over .500. Likewise, if we look at last season's results over the last 13 weeks, the season finished out +19 games over .500.

#6 - Therefore, whether comparing it to last season or the first 4 weeks of this season, the number of games that are going to swing (from those that hit at over to those that will now have to hit at under) will be 34 (vs. last season) and 52 (vs. this season's % thus far).

#7 - Mentally, you have to be aware of this when capping totals the rest of the season. Oddsmakers will be on top of their lines, knowing they have to adjust things to allow unders to hit at a better rate overall, netting their sportsbooks more revenue. I would be very suprised if we finished this season higher than 51%. Therefore, many more games are going to be going under than you may expect based on last year or results season to date. So while looking at the percentages may not seem that much, remember that the "swing" in your mind from what you've seen last year and so far this year, to what will actually happen, could be about 34 games in total. Which is over 2.6 per weekend, and is of course significant when capping totals.

So overall, I wanted to share this study with you and also share my system's results. I think the season has gone very well thus far, 14-4 (78%) is not too shabby through 4 weeks. But I think I can improve upon that, and while every week may not be up to my high standards, I think overall we will be in very good shape at the end of the season.