Tough loss yesterday on the Bears. But I moved past it and was studying the matchup tonight.
One of my ATS systems has gone 2-0 so far this week on its big plays, Ten and Bal being those 2 winners. Tonight it has SD winning by a FG.
The other ATS system has SD winning by an even 9.
Doing my research in other phases of this matchup, I have found the following:
- Jets are 10-5-1 ATS traveling to the West Coast, including 4-1-1 since 2002 and 3-0 @ SD
- Jets are 4-0 ATS as a road dog after facing NE and losing the previous week since 2003, including 3-0 ATS under Mangini
- The Chargers are 3-11 ATS at home vs teams from the Eastern divisions since 1995, including 0-4 ATS as a TD+ favorite.
- In those TD+ favored games, the score has been decided by just three points in 3 of the 4, and by two points in the other game.
Another key to a game like this will be special teams. NYJ had cut their punter after the NE game due to his terrible punting (27 yd net avg on 4 punts) but had to resign him late last week after his replacement hurt himself. Unless this punter (and the coverage teams) can improve dramatically on their season avg (34 net, 29th in the league), the Jets D could be facing some short fields quite frequently. To note, SD is #4 in the league in net yds/punt (45 yds).
I try to share with you my insight and analysis, but I typically will stay away from the traditional rhetoric you will see elsewhere about "SD coming out fired up", as that's not actual insight you need to hear from me. You already know both teams will be fired up and I'm not wasting your time with that.
In summary, it remains to be seen if NYJ can cover w/ a FG loss, as some of my numbers indicate, but my official advice here is a "PASS".
Yes, I'd love to get back to .500 for the week. But I'm not going to force plays nor am I in this for a week by week record. The end of the season record and the positive flow into your pockets is what I care about. And there is better value next week than I can see tonight.
From my perspective, I have released 15 plays so far this season, and only two of them were bad reads. (Det in week 1 and Buf this past weekend). The other 12 won (and many won easily) and the Chi game was the closest and toughest loss of the season.
It still puts us at 12-3 and I've already begun breaking things down for Week 4. Good luck tonight in your selections!
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