Week 2 - MNF

First, just because I am 10-1 ATS to start the season does not mean load up on my plays. I do my best, but I'm not going to sustain 91% winners over the course of the season. None of my plays are guaranteed - I put in my homework and try to produce results. That's the best I can do.

Second, make sharp decisions about your money management. It's your money, after all. Keep it that way. Don't bet over your head, and stick to your plan that you started from the beginning of the season. For those that followed my plays on Oak, Ten and Chi, I want you to consider putting the same amount on this play as you did those other plays. Don't get dazzled by the lights of MNF. Simply put, this play is no better or no worse than any of those other 3 plays. I have found good value so far this season in "less appealing" games. Tonight is a little different bird, in that it is MNF and is easily the heaviest bet game of the week. So consider that, as well.

That said, I have a play on MNF that I liked from the line release and I still like it today. Of course, you could have received more points at line release, but let's hope that will not be the difference tonight. I started analyzing it last Wednesday and everything checked out. Of course, huge stage tonight in Dallas. And again, this is not a system play, so don't go all in.

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

• Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
  
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
• In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
• Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
• Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start the Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.