2008 Week 2 Plays

A reminder prior to the plays: My system has not kicked in, so all plays are based on my own handicapping methods. As good or bad as these plays may turn out, I anticipate stronger results as the season progresses and my system syncs up more and more.

Season to date record for Sharp Football Analysis plays: 7-1

Week 2 Plays:

Chi +3.5
Ten +1
Oak +3.5

Pending Weather Confirmation (will update Sunday) Pit/Cle O 44.5 - DO NOT MAKE THIS PLAY, READ BELOW!!!

Week 2 Comment:

Typically have a short list and from it, my plays. Usually 50-70% of my short list makes my plays. I am very selective from the jump and very focused. This week, my short list is about the same size, but only ~40% of my short list plays have made official play status so far. I still have several plays which I am leaning on, but have not been able to officially release tonight due to a variety of situations surrounding the plays. They don't have my full confidence level. Therefore, you can expect to see at least one, or likely two plays released on Sunday AM. So please do not be disappointed by the small number of plays thus far. Sometimes weeks are like this, and that's all I can tell you about that.

Writeups:

Chi +3.5

I know the only saying about taking a team off a Primetime, Nationally televised win such as SNF or MNF and playing them the following week. People, including some "sharps" are commenting on it. But what is the truth?

The truth is, teams coming off a game such as this who won as a road dog and are now the favorites have gone 12-20 ATS since 2002. Including 2-3 ATS last season. Not so hot.

But that's not what we have here. Here we have an undervalued dog who is a dog again for the second week in a row. Teams who played SNF or MNF and won as a road dog and are dogs for a 2^nd straight week are actually 6-2 ATS since 2002 and 2-0 ATS last season.

That stat isn't necessarily a REASON to take Chi, it's more the "truth" behind some of the numbers you may have seen. As you may know from my style, I'm always one to investigate a stat/trend and find the answer for myself. The fact is, if Chi became a favorite for Sunday's game simply because they looked great on SNF, I wouldn't like them as much.

But Car pulled off a "stunner" to many (remember, I had Car + points last week) out in SD, and now are returning home a town hero. And they've been crowned the 3.5 point favorite on Sunday.

I like Chi in this spot to cover the 3.5, and a couple of reasons I can share are:

• As good as Carolina is as a road dog at pulling off upsets, when they get back home they lose gas and are just 1-4 ATS (since 2002) in games following a road dog victory towards the 1^st half of the season.

• Carolina is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers under John Fox, including 0-5 SU as a favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU in week 2 games under Lovie Smith.

Ten +1

Since 2002, Tennessee has faced the following teams in Week 2: Indy 3 times, SD once, Dal once, Bal once.

Which week 2 was not like the others? If you guessed Bal, you would be right. Ten won that game 25-10 on a +3.5 line. Ten is going to be glad to face this Cincy team in week 2 as opposed to a NFL power like they have in prior seasons.

• After winning at home as an underdog, then hitting the road as a dog the following week, Ten is 5-1 ATS including 3-0 since 2002.

• Cincy on the other hand is merely mediocre when following up a road loss back at home. They are 3-3-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis after losing on the road and returning home as a fav.

• The game after facing Jacksonville and getting a win, Tennessee is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

• Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis following a loss to the Ravens. (Remember, Marvin Lewis coached for Baltimore and those matchups vs. the Ravens are big games for him).

Oak +3.5

A key trend on this one: Teams that were 15+ point road underdogs the prior week and lost in a close game (7 points or fewer) are 2-8 SU the following week back at home.


Potential Play "Heads-Up"

I will give you a "heads up" on a play for Sunday night, however, I will not advise betting until Sunday. This is because WEATHER could affect this play. Of course, that game is Pit/Cle in Cleveland. As you know from my update yesterday morning, I posted Hurricane Ike's storm track. I will update it here again:


The beauty of these images is that they will constantly update. Therefore, the words I am typing now may not relate to the picture you see in a few hours. But, as of Friday afternoon, it appears this system may impact Cleveland on Sunday evening. A lot will still depend on actual storm track once it makes landfall as well as the speed at which it is moving. However, current models are tracking it to hit the Ohio area on Sunday evening. However, some models do show it taking a slightly more "Western" track and may not hit Cleveland Sunday Evening. As of now, the current forecast for Sunday evening in Cleveland is:

And the forecast at Cleveland Stadium, which is right off the water, is currently calling for 20 mph winds from the south, and thunderstorms. If weather was not a factor, I would have already made the play.

I WILL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH I WILL STILL LEAVE THIS WRITE UP HERE, I DEFINITELY DO NOT ADVISE MAKING THIS PLAY. IN FACT, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I ALMOST ADVISE REVERSING AND PLAYING UNDER 44.5.

THIS STORM IS NO JOKE, AND IF THE SYSTEM IS INDEED DIRECTLY OVER CLEVELAND, AROUND 9PM EST, WHICH IS WHAT THE WEATHER REPORTS SEEM TO INDICATE, POINTS WILL DEFINITELY COME AT A PREMIUM. I CAME UP WITH THIS PLAY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS NOT GOING TO PLAY AS LARGE A ROLE. AS WE KNOW KNOW, IT WILL.

SO I AM STILL LEAVING MY WRITEUP HERE, BUT I WILL ADVISE FURTHER IN THE A.M.

Pit/Cle Over 44.5

Since Big Ben has been QB of the Steelers in 2004:

When playing IN Cleveland, the Steelers score an avg of 31 points (24, 41, 24, 34), and the final total game score of 49 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 12 points.

When playing the first H2H matchup of the season, regardless of location, the Steelers score an avg of 32 points (34, 34, 24, 34). The final total game score of 40 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 3 points.

To tally that up, Overs have gone 5-1 in the either the first H2H of the year or if the game is in Cleveland.

I also look back to last season, where Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. the Steelers, losing 34-7. They re-tooled, and those 7 points would be the fewest they would score all season. They went on to avg 26 points the rest of the season, including 51 in Week 2 (albeit vs Cin) and 28 in their next matchup w/ the Steelers.

This season, Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. Dallas, losing 28-10. They surely realize they will struggle to stop Pit on offense, and must find ways to produce big plays on offense and score a large number of points.

Now, I will make you aware that this 44.5 point total is WAY higher than typical totals in this series. Prior to last year's week 10 matchup, the average total for the previous 7 games was 37. Over went 5-2 by an avg of 7 points. Last year in week 10, the total was raised to 47.5, and the game finished at a total of 59, 11.5 points higher than the total.

While the 44.5 point posted total is much higher than fans of this series have come to expect, oddsmakers were left no choice with the constant overs these two teams posted. While I think this is a very fair posted line, I look for value on the side of the Over, as I see both teams contributing to a combined score which should surpass the posted line. A key component will be the kick return ability of Josh Cribbs, who missed last week's game. If Cribbs can get Cleveland into good field position to lead to a quick score in at least 1 of his returns, I see this game eclipsing 44.5.